Margaret Hellweg, Richard Allen, Maren Böse,

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Progress on Early Warning Research in Taiwan
Advertisements

Earthquake engineering and real-time early warning: the AMRA perspective. Iunio Iervolino* and Gaetano Manfredi *Assistant Professor of Structural Engineering.
Sarah Minson California Institute of Technology. Sarah E. Minson California Institute of Technology Jessica R. Murray, John O. Langbein, Joan S. Gomberg.
Real-Time Estimation of Earthquake Location and Magnitude for Seismic Early Warning in Campania Region, southern Italy A. Zollo and RISSC-Lab Research.
Existing & Future Earthquake Information Systems Ken Hudnut USGS, Pasadena LA Financial Services Sector Regional Recovery Coalition Meeting 17 November.
CyberShake Project and ShakeMaps. CyberShake Project CyberShake is a SCEC research project that is a physics-based high performance computational approach.
10/09/2007CIG/SPICE/IRIS/USAF1 Broadband Ground Motion Simulations for a Mw 7.8 Southern San Andreas Earthquake: ShakeOut Robert W. Graves (URS Corporation)
Faults in Focus: Earthquake Science Accomplishments Thomas H. Jordan Director, Southern California Earthquake Cente r 28 February 2014.
Earthquake Early Warning Research and Development in California, USA Hauksson E., Boese M., Heaton T., Seismological Laboratory, California Institute of.
Brief Overview, Current Activities & ARRA Improvements David Oppenheimer – USGS Menlo Park.
1 High Performance Computing at SCEC Scott Callaghan Southern California Earthquake Center University of Southern California.
Tom Heaton Caltech Geophysics and Civil Engineering.
Creating the Virtual Seismologist Tom Heaton, Caltech Georgia Cua, Univ. of Puerto Rico Masumi Yamada, Caltech.
Envelope-based Seismic Early Warning: Virtual Seismologist method G. Cua and T. Heaton Caltech.
California Integrated Seismic Network Strategy for Success Woody Savage David Oppenheimer ANSS-IMW Strategic Planning Meeting August 14, 2006 Salt Lake.
Average properties of Southern California earthquake ground motions envelopes… G. Cua, T. Heaton Caltech.
FALL 2004EASA-130 Seismology and Nuclear Explosions 1 Earthquakes as Seismic Sources Lupei Zhu.
SECOND EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND SEISMOLOGY ISTANBUL | Turkey | Aug , 2014 Feasibility study of a nation-wide Early Warning.
SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center ShakeAlert CISN Testing Center (CTC) Development Philip Maechling Information Technology Architect Southern California.
RAPID SOURCE PARAMETER DETERMINATION AND EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PROCESS IN INDONESIA REGION Iman Suardi Seismology Course Indonesia Final Presentation of Master.
CISN Earthquake Early Warning UC BerkeleyCaltechSCEC/USC U.S. Geological Survey Real-time testing of algorithms statewide Richard Allen, UC Berkeley.
Use of ShakeMap in Emergency Management Loren Turner Caltrans, Division of Research & Innovation.
1 Fault Dynamics of the April 6, 2009 L'Aquila, Italy Earthquake Sequence Robert B. Herrmann Saint Louis University Luca Malagnini INGV, Roma.
Ken Hudnut U.S. Geological Survey 22 November 2013
1 GPS Requirements for Tsunami Detection Y. Tony Song & Geoff Blewitt Yoaz Bar-Sever, Richard Gross, Vindell Hsu, Kenneth Hudnut, Hans-Peter Plag, Mark.
FEASIBILITY STUDY OF A REGIONAL EEW SYSTEM FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REGION ZUCCOLO Elisa, SALAZAR Walter, DI SARNO Luigi, FARRELL Anthony, GIBBS Tony,
CISN: C alifornia I ntegrated S eismic N etwork The Program Management Group (PMG): Tony Shakal – CGS David Oppenheimer – USGS Menlo Park Peggy Hellweg.
Iranian National Broadband Seismic Network (BIN)
Lisa Wald USGS Pasadena U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Earthquakes 101 (EQ101)
The 03/11/2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku, Japan Earthquake Educational Slides Created & Compiled by Gavin Hayes & David Wald U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake.
CISN: C alifornia I ntegrated S eismic N etwork The Program Management Group (PMG): Doug Given – USGS Pasadena Egill Hauksson - Caltech Peggy Hellweg &
Brief history, Current Activities & ARRA Improvements David Oppenheimer – USGS Menlo Park.
Overview of CISN Operations and Products David Oppenheimer USGS Menlo Park, CA.
Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization
1 SCEC Broadband Platform Development Using USC HPCC Philip Maechling 12 Nov 2012.
U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Real-time GPS integration for prototype earthquake.
Creating the Virtual Seismologist Tom Heaton, Caltech Georgia Cua, ETH, Switzerland Masumi Yamada, Kyoto Univ Maren Böse, Caltech.
Large Earthquake Rapid Finite Rupture Model Products Thorne Lay (UCSC) USGS/IRIS/NSF International Workshop on the Utilization of Seismographic Networks.
U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey The Earthquake is Inevitable: The Disaster is Not.
CISN: Draft Plans for Funding Sources: OES/FEMA/ANSS/Others CISN-PMG Sacramento 10/19/2004.
Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network Egill Hauksson, Caltech & Doug Given, USGS Pasadena CISN Meeting, Sacramento, 14 December 2011.
SCEC: An NSF + USGS Research Center Evaluation of Earthquake Early Warnings as External Earthquake Forecasts Philip Maechling Information Technology Architect.
Assorted innovations in earthquake early warning and rapid response
Earthquakes 101 (EQ101) Lisa Wald USGS Earthquake Hazards Program
Rapid Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) Inversion in 3D Earth Structure Model for Earthquakes in Southern California 1 En-Jui Lee, 1 Po Chen, 2 Thomas H. Jordan,
ShakeAlert Performance Testing System Overview CISN Testing Center (top right) retrieves a daily earthquake catalog from ANSS Data Center (bottom right)
CISN Performance in Recent Earthquakes CISN Business Meeting Oct 10, 2014.
Gaetano Festa, Aldo Zollo, Simona Colombelli, Matteo Picozzi, Alessandro Caruso Dipartimento di Fisica; Università di Napoli Federico II.
Seismic phases and earthquake location
Earthquake Monitoring & Tsunami Warning
Post-Earthquake Response
Earthquakes USGS Earthquake Hazards Program Earthquake Basics
ShakeAlert CISN Testing Center (CTC) Development
USGS Tsunami Activities 5 Year Review
Finite-Source Models of the December 22, 2003 Mw6
California Earthquake Early Warning System (CEEWS)
Kinematic Modeling of the Denali Earthquake
Ch.5, Sec.2 - Earthquake Measurement
Scott Callaghan Southern California Earthquake Center
SCEC Community Modeling Environment (SCEC/CME)
CISN Testing Center (CTC)
Locating an earthquake
Using Distances to known Earthquake epicenters, create
Creating the Virtual Seismologist
SICHUAN EARTHQUAKE May 12, 2008
Earthquake and Tsunami Program Governor’s Office of Emergency Services
So why are seismograms so important?
Southern California Earthquake Center
Bringing EEW to the West Coast
Presentation transcript:

Earthquake Early Warning in California: Evaluating Hardware and Software Margaret Hellweg, Richard Allen, Maren Böse, Holly Brown, Georgia Cua, Doug Given, Egill Hauksson, Tom Heaton, Tom Jordan, Oleg Khainovski, Phil Maechling, Doug Neuhauser, David Oppenheimer, Kalpesh Solanki, Michael Zeleznik University of California, Berkeley California Institute of Technology ETH Zurich USGS Pasadena Southern California Earthquake Center USGS Menlo Park Saya Systems Funded by CISN California Integrated Seismic Network

What is earthquake early warning? Seismic Stations P-wave fault S-wave

What is earthquake early warning? minimal telemetry delays but less robust warning time is the S-P time best chance of warning at epicenter Single station approach 1st Station to detect P-wave arrival Issue warning? Seismic Stations P-wave fault S-wave CISN California Integrated Seismic Network EEW  “On-site” method

What is earthquake early warning? Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival Seismic Stations P-wave fault S-wave

What is earthquake early warning? Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival Estimate the extent of rupture Seismic Stations P-wave fault S-wave Rupture

What is earthquake early warning? Network based approach Multiple stations detect P-wave arrival Estimate the extent of rupture Issue warning longer delay but more robust difficult to warn at epicenter transmit warning ahead of shaking …greater warning times Seismic Stations P-wave fault CISN California Integrated Seismic Network EEW S-wave  “ElarmS” and “Virtual Seismologist” methods Rupture Shaking

What is earthquake early warning? More stations detect P-wave arrival Estimate the extent of rupture Issue warning More information  update warning Seismic Stations P-wave fault S-wave Rupture Shaking

California Integrated Seismic Network August 2006 – July 2009 statewide testing CISN California Integrated Seismic Network EEW Goal: evaluate real-time performance of early warning algorithms Aug ‘06 Year 1: Initial real-time outputs from EEW algorithms Year 2: Statewide processing; Add uncertainty estimates; website display Year 3: Evaluation of past and future performance Year 1: Initial real-time outputs from EEW algorithms Year 2: Statewide processing; Add uncertainty estimates; website display Year 3: Evaluation of past and future performance Currently at 28 mths Jul ‘09  specifications for implemented early warning system equipment requirements (stations) telemetry processing …the next generation of geophysical networks 8

California Integrated Seismic Network August 2006 – July 2009 State-wide testing CISN California Integrated Seismic Network EEW Goal: evaluate real-time performance of early warning methods Distributed waveform processing Each algorithms runs at one datacenter Reporting to SCEC Three algorithms: Archive/website SCEC/USC 1. Onsite warning (S11A-1727) Caltech/U. Taiwan 2. Virtual Seismologist (S11A-1724, S14B-06) Caltech/ETH 3. ElarmS (S11A-1726 , S11A-1725) UC Berkeley Algorithm Evaluation: UC Berkeley USGS Menlo Park Alert information and summaries (S11A-1728) SCEC/USC Caltech/USGS Pasadena

τc-Pd On-site Warning Algorithm (S11A-1727) CISN California Integrated Seismic Network EEW τc-Pd On-site Warning Algorithm (S11A-1727) 2007-2008: 58 earthquakes with 3.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.4 Mw5.4 Chino Hills 07/29/2008: 60 triggers Uncertainties after station corrections: Mw: ±0.5; log(PGV): ±0.3; MMI: ±0.7 HH estimated Mw=4.4…6.5 (median: 5.6) First estimate: Mw=5.6 (CI.PSR, 10 sec after O.T.) → 6 sec warning time at LA City Hall Magnitude Peak Ground Velocity Warning delays ~ 9-16 sec 10

Virtual seismologist (S11A-1724, S14B-06) CISN California Integrated Seismic Network EEW Virtual seismologist (S11A-1724, S14B-06) Regional network approach Bayesian approach: Include likelihood of earthquake given past observations e.g. Gutenberg-Richter relation and distribution of previous seismicity Triggers on P-waves Uses envelope functions of waveforms Magnitude derived from 3 sec of the P-wave Predicts the distribution of ground shaking Finite fault discriminate Cua & Heaton 2007 Real-time in SC since 13 July 2008 Initial estimate within 10-30 s of origin time Mw: ±1 for 97% of events Fig captions are included (cropped off display) Left: Figure 5.11 from Yamada’s thesis: probability that a station is near source based on their discriminat function Right: Figs 6.5 and 6.7 from Yamada’s thesis: back projection of station displacement onto the fault; backprojected slip estimates and the estimated slip from kinematic inversions Next steps: Statewide processing Site conditions EQ/noise discrimination Yamada & Heaton in review

California Integrated Seismic Network CISN California Integrated Seismic Network EEW ElarmS-RT (S11A-1726 , S11A-1725) Statewide (Nov 08) (waveform processing at UCB, USGS-MP and Caltech) Regional network approach Triggers on P-waves, uses arrival times, frequency and amplitude of P-wave. Uses PGA and PGV as they become available. Predicts the distribution of ground shaking using ShakeMap approach  AlertMaps AlertMaps – ElarmS-RT – MW5.4 October 30, 2007 trigger time + 1 sec + 2 sec + 3 sec

Testing Algorithm Performance (S11A-1728) CISN California Integrated Seismic Network EEW Testing Algorithm Performance (S11A-1728) Performance summaries (Location/Magnitude currently implemented) generated every night (2mo,4mo,6mo and cumulative time periods). Generating Summaries for ElarmS (UCB), TauC (Caltech),and Virtual Seismologist ( ETH) CISN EEW Testing site available at: http://www.scec.org/eew Login: guest Pwd: cisneew Magnitude Accuracy Warning Delay with current CISN network Theoretical Warning Delay with no telemetry or processing delays 13

California Integrated Seismic Network CISN California Integrated Seismic Network EEW Perspectives …