Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier

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Presentation transcript:

Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier Experimental Real-Time Hydrologic Nowcasting and Streamflow Forecasting for the Western US Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering AWRA – 2005 Annual Conference, Seattle, WA, USA

Outline Background UW Westwide Seasonal Forecasting Surface Water Monitor / Nowcasting

Importance of Seasonal Forecasting water management hydropower irrigation flood control water supply fisheries recreation navigation water quality Aug Dec Apr Reservoir Storage

Significance for Pacific Northwest Out here a lot of uses depend on how we manage water throughout the lean season (summer), and forecasting how wet or dry the season would be.

Outline Background UW Westwide Seasonal Forecasting Surface Water Monitor / Nowcasting

Experimental Western US Hydrologic Forecast System

Experimental Western US Hydrologic Forecast System

Overview of the Hydrologic Forecast System Test physical hydrological models Validation of historical streamflows Test different climate forecast products Test SNOTEL assimilation

Overview of the Hydrologic Forecast System NCDC met. station obs. up to 2-4 months from current local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs soil moisture snowpack Hydrologic model spin up SNOTEL Update streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff 25th Day, Month 0 1-2 years back LDAS/other real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap Hydrologic forecast simulation Month 6 - 12 INITIAL STATE SNOTEL Update ensemble forecasts ESP traces (40) CPC-based outlook (13) NCEP GSM ensemble (20) NSIPP-1 ensemble (9)

Overview of the Hydrologic Forecast System (NWS) ESP ENSO/PDO ENSO CPC Official Outlooks Coupled Forecast System CAS OCN SMLR CCA CA NSIPP-1 dynamical model VIC Hydrology Model NOAA NASA UW Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources

Seasonal volume forecasts

Sample results: Soil Moisture / Snow conditions

Streamflow prediction results as of March 25, 2004 for Columbia at The Dalles, OR

Streamflow prediction results as of April 1 2005 for Green River, UT

Winter 2004-05: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow ESP median, 10th & 90th %-iles ESP-ENSO (warm) median OBS Forecasts made on 1st of Month

Outline Background UW Westwide Seasonal Forecasting Surface Water Monitor / Nowcasting

Surface Water Monitor for Continental US Current Plots Change Plots Archived Plots

VIC Retrospective Simulation Real-time Nowcasting Information Flow Index Station Method Gridded Forcing Creation NOAA ACIS Prcp Tmax Tmin Coop Stations NOAA ACIS Prcp Tmax Tmin Coop Stations Nowcast produced with 1-2 day lag from current Index Method VIC Retrospective Simulation Daily, 1915 to Near Current Hydrologic State VIC Real-time Simulation (~1 month long) Hydrologic State (-1 Day) Hydrologic values, anomalies, percentiles w.r.t. retrospective PDF climatology (PDF) of hydrologic values w.r.t. defined period vals, anoms percentiles w.r.t. PDF

Near real-time Soil Moisture conditions

Snow conditions Change plots Effect of Katrina August 2005 Yes, it is snowing in the cascades!!!

Archive of historical SM – SWE conditions

Ongoing Work / Future Directions Westwide Seasonal Hydrologic System Inclusion of other basins and data points Assimilation of MODIS data sources Real-time Surface Water Monitor Increase spatial resolution to 1/8 degree Runoff maps, cumulative departures www.hydro.washington.edu Thank you!