Sensitivity of Orbit Predictions to Density Variability

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Presentation transcript:

Sensitivity of Orbit Predictions to Density Variability Rodney L. Anderson George H. Born Jeffrey M. Forbes Oct. 21-22, 2008 MURI Meeting (Boulder, CO)

Where should modeling efforts focus to improve orbit prediction? Horizontal density scales Type (shape) of density variations Magnitude of density Phase errors (errors in timing) Significant Prediction Errors (over 24 hours) Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Method Integrate two trajectories from same I.C.s in 2-Body Problem One with “Truth” density profile One with alternate Compare position (RIC) diff. after t All results are for the CHAMP S/C Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Prediction Differences using CHAMP & Model Data (2003) Total Difference In-track Difference Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Isolate Effect of Different Horizontal Density Scales Determine component of orbit prediction & model error caused by different horizontal density scales Determine error introduced by missing a single wavelength (scale) Integrate one trajectory with nominal density Integrate one trajectory with density perturbation function (25% amplitude) Does the type of function matter? Which scales are most important? Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Sine Wave (1 cycle) Position Difference Density over Time Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Functions Give Similar Results (1 Cycle Cases) Diff.max  1.3 m Diff.max  1.4 m Diff.max  1.55 m Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

One, Two & Three Day Integration Times Diff.max  3 m Diff.max  6 m Diff.max  9 m In-track Differences 24 hours 48 hours 72 hours Orbit differences with 10,000 km wavelength increase by about 3 m per day (CHAMP S/C) Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Predictions with Measured vs. Smoothed CHAMP Data What happens if multiple wavelengths are ignored? Use smoothing or averaging over different time intervals Raw data 6 minute averaging 30 minute averaging Reduces power of shorter wavelengths Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Smoothed Data (30 min. Interval) (Day 324 of 2003) Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Comparison over 2003 (24 hour, 6 minute case) Differences are primarily in the in-track direction Mean = 0.63 m Max. = 10.7 m Min. = 0.019 m Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Comparison over 2003 (24 hour, 30 minute case) Mean = 6.21 m Max. = 56.21 m Min. = 0.24 m Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Histogram 30 minute average 2003 2007 Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Conclusions Single wavelength perturbations can give meter level errors Neglecting density scales below 1000 km gives meter level errors (for CHAMP) 8000 km gives errors on the order of 10s of meters (for CHAMP) Errors small but significant enough to take into account in models Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado

Current Status Examining contribution of different components to error Additional altitudes Eccentric orbits Perturbations that die off Different density altitudes In-phase and out-of-phase perturbations Time delay (phase) issues Implementing density models in GIPSY-OASIS Including additional satellites Oct. 21-22, 2008 Boulder, Colorado