GMD Research FERC Order No. 830 Research Work Plan Mark Olson, NERC Technical Studies Subcommittee Meeting August 22, 2017

GMD Research Objective By working through an open and diverse network of international partners, including U.S. and Canadian government, utility, and public and private researchers, the NERC GMD Task Force has developed state of the art models, tools, and techniques that enable implementation of the GMD standards…and support broad application of best practices in North America. NERC commits to continue its work to advance the technical capabilities of the industry to address this high-impact, low frequency risk through these effective and collaborative international partnerships. - NERC TPL-007-1 Petition for Regulatory Approval (July 2015)

Preliminary GMD Research Work Plan filed with FERC in May 2017 Order No. 830 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order continues efforts addressing geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) Implementation of GMD Vulnerability Assessments (TPL-007-1) Revisions to TPL-007-1 through Standards Development Process Data collection GMD research work plan NERC and EPRI collaborated to develop a research work plan addressing issues in FERC’s order Preliminary GMD Research Work Plan filed with FERC in May 2017

NERC received input on the research work plan through: Development Steps NERC received input on the research work plan through: GMD Task Force (GMDTF) Technical committees Research organizations GMDTF meeting held on February 21 – 22, 2017 EPRI and NERC staff constructed preliminary research work plan and filed with FERC in May 2017 August 2017 - EPRI initiated member outreach for support of a multi-year EPRI GMD project meeting NERC’s objectives

Chair: Frank Koza – PJM Interconnection GMD Task Force GMD Task Force provided input on the research work plan and will be a forum for feedback and review NERC GMD Task Force collaborates with researchers, agencies and utilities across North America Electric Power Research Institute North American Transmission Forum NASA, Canadian Space Agency U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center U.S. National Labs Utilities from all regions in North America Chair: Frank Koza – PJM Interconnection

Research Work Plan Overview FERC-directed research activities include: Continued analysis on benchmark GMD event Improving earth conductivity models Further analysis on transformer vulnerability Development of harmonic analysis capability Additional NERC activity includes: Implement data collection and sharing for GIC monitoring devices Develop tool for transformer thermal response simulation

Task 1 -Analyze Spatial Averaging Used in Benchmark GMD Event Further evaluate the Benchmark GMD Event used in TPL-007-1 Improve understanding of the physics and spatial scales of localized geoelectric field “hotspots”. Analysis of measurement data Compare to simulated predictions Determine impacts of spatial averaging assumptions on bulk-power system reliability. GIC analysis Power flow analysis Transformer thermal assessments

Perform analysis to provide: Evaluate the geomagnetic latitude scaling factors associated with severe GMD events. Perform review of peer-reviewed research since development of NERC Benchmark GMD Event Perform analysis to provide: Additional technical support for existing latitude scaling factors, or Propose new values as appropriate Image source: C Ngwira and A Pulkinnen et al., Extended study of Extreme Geoelectric Field Event Scenarios for Geomagnetically Induced Current Applications, 11 Space Weater 121 (2013)

Task 3 – Improve Earth Conductivity Models for GIC Studies Determine if the earth conductivity scaling factors in TPL-007-1 need to be revised using more complex modeling Compare GIC calculations for 3D and 1D models Develop techniques and guidelines for using GIC and magnetometer data to perform model validation Establish a working group to further development of modeling non-uniform geoelectric fields including coastal effect

Task 4 and 5 –Transformer Thermal Impact Perform analysis to evaluate the ability of GIC flow calculated as specified in TPL-007 to represent worst-case transformer hot-spot heating conditions Evaluate 75 A per phase criteria Evaluate effects of harmonic currents Develop enhancements to models and data to improve accuracy of transformer thermal impact assessments Improve models Additional modeling parameters Guidance, Performance Criteria

Task 6 – Section 1600 Data Request Order No. 830 includes directives for collecting data to “improve our collective understanding” of GMD risk Includes GIC and Magnetometer data NERC is to make data available to the public EPRI project will help develop guidance for the measurement of GIC and geomagnetic field Opportunities for stakeholder input on data request: GMDTF Technical Committees 45-day formal comment period (expected in early 2018)

Task 7 – Geoelectric Field Calculation Tool Evaluate commercially available tools for calculating geoelectric field from magnetic field data for given earth conductivity structure. Develop open source tool capable of performing geoelectric field calculations using 1D and 3D earth conductivity layered model and time series geomagnetic field data. Perform time-series simulations to evaluate the beta factors (scaling factors to account for earth conductivity).

Task 8 – Harmonic Analysis Capabilities GMD harmonic assessments– provide guidance and tools to address GMD-related harmonics Develop harmonics analysis guidelines and tools for system-wide assessments.   Develop models and methods to improve capability of performing harmonic assessments of benchmark GMD events.

Task 9 – Harmonic Impact Studies Impacts of harmonics on power system equipment; in particular, the impacts of vibrations on power transformers. Perform transformer tank vibration measurements on transformers when subjected to GIC Determine: Feasibility of using tank vibration measurements to monitor GIC impact Impact of vibrations due to GIC on integrity of the transformers May result in additional screening and/or monitoring criteria that can be used to determine GMD impacts

EPRI project expected to span Q4 2017 – Q1 2020 Ways to be Involved EPRI project expected to span Q4 2017 – Q1 2020 EPRI POC: Robert Arritt at 865.218.5908 (barritt@epri.com) NERC GMDTF meeting: September 19, 2017 NERC HQ Atlanta | Remote access available | Details on NERC Calendar

John Moura – Director, Reliability Assessment and System Analysis Points of Contact John Moura – Director, Reliability Assessment and System Analysis john.moura@nerc.net Ganesh Velummylum – Senior Manager, System Analysis ganesh.velummylum@nerc.net Mark Olson – Senior Engineer, Reliability Assessments mark.olson@nerc.net

Discussion

Data Request Background NERC Rules of Procedure (RoP) Section 1600 Within the United States, NERC and Regional Entities may request data or information that is necessary to meet their obligations under Section 215 of the Federal Power Act, as authorized by Section 39.2(d) of the Commission’s regulations, 18 C.F.R. § 39.2(d). (P 1601) Data Request Elements Describe why the data is needed, its use and collection method Identify functional entity(ies) Estimate the burden on reporting entities Establish reporting criteria or schedule Process 45-day public comment period on NERC’s request NERC Board approval required to issue data request to entity(ies)