NASA JPL Drought Project Kickoff Meeting Enhancement of the U.S. Drought Monitor Through the Integration of NASA Vegetation Index Imagery Project and Related Activities at USGS/EROS Jim Verdin and Jesslyn Brown NASA JPL Drought Project Kickoff Meeting Lincoln, Nebraska April 24, 2007

Objective Integration of MODIS VI and derivative products into the U.S. Drought Monitor Decision Support System, and the emerging National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Water Management: National Drought Monitoring System Earth System Models Land Surface Models: Vegetation Drought Response Index Predictions/Forecasts Decision Support Systems, Assessments, Management Actions National Integrated Drought Information System US Drought Monitor Weekly map and narrative NIDIS web portal Analyses Early Drought Detection Drought Spatial Extent Drought State/Drought Severity Decisions / Actions Drought Plans Activated Urban Water Restrictions Drought Assistance Programs Agricultural Choices for Water Conservation Information products Vegetation Indices MODIS NDVI MODIS NDWI AVHRR NDVI Phenological Metrics Start of Season Start of Season Anomaly Seasonal Greenness Percent of Average SG Gridded Rainfall Products Calibrated RADAR Standardized Precipitation Index Value & Benefits to Society Quantitative and qualitative benefits from improved decisions Wider dissemination of drought information Improved understanding of drought effects at sub-county scale Quicker response for State Drought Task Forces and State Governors Increased spatial precision in drought emergency designations Better informed state and local decision making leading to more effective use of available water and drought relief program resources Earth Observations Land Surface Vegetation: MODIS and AVHRR Precipitation: Weather Station networks, RADAR observations Land Use/Land Cover: Landsat, MODIS Observations, Parameters & Products

Specific Objectives Improve USDM resolution from Climate Division to 500m Provide drought detection and monitoring in gaps between stations Increase timeliness of VI product availability Integrate VI and derivative web product delivery into the NIDIS portal Tailor products and delivery according to feedback from USDM community

Desired Outcomes USDM products supporting county level decision making at USDA, etc USDM dissemination via NIDIS portal with sub-county drill-down capability Routine use of NASA VI derived products by USDM authors, land managers, water managers, and drought assistance program administrators

MODIS Data Access Issues Latency, fixed period of DAAC composite products problematic for operational drought monitoring Collection 4 and Collection 5: non-homogenous time series (participation in January workshop at UMd) Original plan for use of Direct Broadcast System (DBS) EROS DBS support discontinued Move to NOAA EDOS “bent pipe”

eMODIS: Enhanced MODIS Processing Service Product specifications developed to satisfy U.S. monitoring requirements – MOD09 surface reflectances Recently substituted for MODIS DBS approach Expedited data delivery: ~24 hours after satellite collection Daily rolling composite periods Products served with a conterminous U.S. extent (rather than tiled) Composite products at 250 m, 500 m, and 1 km Geotiff product format

eMODIS: Enhanced MODIS Processing Service System status and plans 2005 - 2006 historical time series (Terra and Aqua MODIS) for baseline establishment (cross calib. with AVHRR) Currently evaluating composite products Operational near real-time service to begin in approximately 6-9 months Plan to fill in 2007 composites retrospectively

eMODIS System Composite Example Prototype Terra MODIS NDVI composite for the period August 2-8, 2006

US Satellite Inputs: Updates from eMODIS Vegetation Indices Percent of Average Seasonal Greenness Start of Season Anomaly (and other metrics) 7-day and 28-day change products (e.g., “greener” and “wetter”) Current 2008 AVHRR NDVI MODIS NDVI and NDWI 14-day time step 7-day time step (updated daily) 1-km resolution 500 m resolution (250 m resolution)

eMODIS: Resolution Improvements 1 km AVHRR NDVI 500 m MODIS NDVI Kansas Oklahoma

U.S. Rain Day/Dry Day Products Product suite developed for U.S. drought monitoring Computed daily based on (~4 km) NOAA/NWS Precipitation Analysis data (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php) Served from the NDMC (http://drought.unl.edu) [weekly update] and USGS Early Warning and Monitoring Program (http://earlywarning.usgs.gov): [daily update]

U.S. Rain Day/Dry Day Products

U.S. Rain Day/Dry Day Products

MODIS-derived Irrigated Area Map

National Irrigated Area Model Inputs 2002 Annual Peak NDVI (250 m resolution) 1992 NLCD (will update to use 2001 NLCD) 2002 USDA Agricultural Census Statistics

National Irrigated Area

Zimbabwe Maize Harvest Prospects 2007 MODIS NDVI data were used to assess the impact of drought in the central and southern portions of the country Cultivated Area NDVI SADC Land Cover MODIS NDVI

Calendar dates are indicative; actual dates vary by district Zimbabwe MODIS Analysis - National onset-adjusted NDVI curves related to USDA statistics Calendar dates are indicative; actual dates vary by district

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