2017 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON: FRANKLI IS NOW ON CENTER STAGE August 7, 2017 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: August 09, 2017 Updated August 10, 2017 More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/disasters/BADisasterSupercourse.htm PPT original - http://www.pitt.edu/~super7/55011-56001/55501.ppt

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s atmospheric-hydrospheric-lithospheric interactions create SEVERE WINDSTORMS

EACH YEAR PROVIDES TEN TO 20 NEW WINDSTORM LABORATORIES EACH HURRICANE IS A LABORATORY FOR IMPORTANT TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL LESSONS ABOUT HURRICANE DISASTER RESILIENCE.

FORECAST FOR 2017: RETURN OF EL NINO

THE NEW FORECAST FOR 2017: THE REMAINDER OF THE 2017 SEASON MAY BECOME MORE INTENSE DO NOT FORGET THAT ONE STORM (E.G., LIKE 2005’S KATRINA) CAN CHANGE THE ENTIRE SEASON

2017: THE FIRST SIX NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS ARLENE – JUNE 9; DIED QUICKLY BRET – JUNE 13; RAIN CINDY – JUNE 19-23; LOTS OF RAIN DON – July 17, DIED IN ATLANTIC EMILY – July 17, DIED IN CARIB. FRANKLIN—August 6; a RAINMAKER in NW Caribbean and Mexico

ARLENE

BRET: BROUGHT RAIN TO CARIBBEAN

JUNE 19: CINDY: EXPECTED TO BE HUGE RAINMAKER

WED. JUNE 21: CINDY NEARING LANDFALL As of Wednesday morning, Cindy was positioned 170 miles south of Morgan City, La. and expected to make landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border today.  Tropical storm warnings spanned from San Luis Pass, Tex., to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

WED. JUNE 21: CINDY CAUSING FLOODINNG Tropical storm Cindy is now drenching the northern Gulf Coast (southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle) and could leave behind more than a foot of rain in some areas LIKE MOBILE, ALABAMA as it begins to move northward towards Tennessee and Kentucky.

TROPICAL STORM DON: JULY 17, 2017

TROPICAL STORM EMILY; JULY 17, 2017

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN; August 6, 2017

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN; August 6, 2017

FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN (AUG. 7) Tropical Storm Franklin is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and may hit Mexico twice this week as it moves towards land, most likely becoming a hurricane.

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN; FORECAST: August 8, 2017

FORECAST OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS The storm is expected to clear the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday evening, but will head toward mainland Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz, making landfall on Thursday morning

LANDFALL ON AUGUST 9 AS A HURRICANE

AUGUST 9: STATUS Franklin is located 15 miles south-southwest of Punta Herrero, Mexico and 25 miles north-northeast of Puerto Costa Maya. Mexico.  The storm has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is moving west-northwest at 14 mph.

FORECAST OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS Residents of the affected areas were warned to make preparations before the storm’s arrival.

AUGUST 9: PREPARATION BOATS MOVED ON SHORE

AUGUST 9: PREPARATION WITH TAPED WINDOWS

AUGUST 9: RAINFALL FORE-CAST NOT AS BAD AS “KARL”

HURRICANE KARL Hurricane Karl , the fifth and final hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, was the most destructive hurricane on record to strike the Mexican state of Veracruz 22 deaths; $5.6 billion losses.

FORECAST OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS The storm is also expected to affect several Central American nations including Honduras, Nicaragua, and Belize. After it passes by Mexico, it may also affect northern Guatemala

FORECAST OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS Some higher elevations may see mudslides triggered by the storm, which will bring 4 to 8 inches of rain to some locations along its track.

AUGUST 10: FRANKLIN BEGINS AS HURRICANE; THEN WEAKENS

AUGUST 10: STATUS Franklin STARTS THE DAY AS A CAT 1 HURRICANE and ends as a tropical depression. Franklin makes its mark in history as a rainmaker. No deaths reported, yet.