1. HURRICANE OTTO, A LATE-SEASON STORM, HEADING FOR COASTA RICA AND NICARAGUA November 21-25, 2016
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA
lecture by Walter Hays Uploading date: November 24, 2016
More lectures at Disasters Supercourse - 
PPT original -
URL:

2. THE 2015 SEASON LULLED EVERYONE TO SLEEP

3. THE 2016 SEASON FORE-CAST CALLED FOR MORE

4. - - - AND IT DID PRODUCE MORE STORMS

5. HURRICANE OTTO; A LATE SEASON HURRICANE

6. The 2016 Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, and while the month of November can have named storms, the season is generally winding down and storms like Otto this late in November are infrequent occurrences.

7. CAT 2 HURRICANE OTTO ON WEDNESDAY, NOV. 23, 2016

8. On Wednesday night, the storm was 160 km (100 miles) north-northeast of Limon, Costa Rica, and was forecast to make landfall on Thursday in Nicaragua, just north of the Costa Rican border.

9. PANAMA, COSTA RICA, AND NICARAGUA

10. ENROUTE, PANAMA CITY: DOWNED TREE KILLS A BOY

11. ENROUTE, PANAMA CITY: HOUSE DESTROYED BY MUDSLIDE

12. COSTA RICA: STATE OF EMERGENCY
President Luis Guillermo Solís, Costa Rica, declared a state-of-emergency as Otto moved towards landfall.
Thousands were evacuated from the Caribbean coast; hospitals in the most at-risk areas have suspended elective surgeries and patients transferred.

13. NICARAGUA: PREPARING FOR OTTO
Nicaragua closed schools and began evacuating more than 10,000 people from communities in the storm’s path.
Heavy rains are expected to affect the entire country on Thursday and Friday, increasing the risk of flooding and landslides.

14. THREE DEATHS IN PANAMA (- - - but more are likely)

15. OTTO WAS PRECEDED BY HURRICANE MATTHEW, WHICH TOOK ITS PLACE IN HISTORY October 5--10, 2016

16. Hurricane Matthew was a very powerful, long-lived and deadly tropical storm

17. MATTHEW WAS THE FIRST CAT 5 HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE 2007

18. TRACK OF HURRICANE MATTHEW

19. NOW, ON TO FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES, - - -
FIRST, MATTHEW STRUCK THE CARIBBEAN BASIN, (E.G., HAITI, JAMAICA, CUBA)
NOW, ON TO FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES, - - -

20. FORCAST FOR MATTHEW: OCTOBER 6--?

21. Nearly 2 Million Under Evacuation in US Ahead of Hurricane Matthew’s Arrival; 16 Killed in Caribbean

22. THE CARIBBEAN BASIN

23. The Caribbean: long referred to as the West Indies, includes more than 7,000 islands; of these, 13 are independent island countries

24. Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s atmospheric-hydrospheric-lithospheric interactions create SEVERE WINDSTORMS

25. ELEMENTS OF WINDSTORM RISK
HAZARDS
EXPOSURE
RISK
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION

26. WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE
CAUSES OF DAMAGE
WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE
UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM
FLYING DEBRIS
HURRICANES
STORM SURGE
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
“DISASTER LABORATORIES”
SITING PROBLEMS
FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

27. HIGH POTENTIAL LOSS EXPOSURES IN A SEVERE WINDSTORM
Entire communities;
People, property, infra-structure, business enterprise, government centers, crops, wildlife, and natural resources.

28. HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)
WIND FIELD [CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5+ (155 mph or greater)]
DEBRIS
STORM SURGE/FLOODS
HEAVY PRECIPITATION/FLOODS
LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS)
COSTAL EROSION

29. REVIEW OF THE 2016 SEASON

30. NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS IN 2016
ALEX - Tropical storm; January (rare)
BONNIE - Tropical storm; May 27
COLIN – Tropical storm; June 6
Danielle – Tropical storm; June 20
EARL – Hurricane; August 6

31. TROPICAL STORM --HURICANE EARL IMPACTED HONDURAS, GUATEMALA, BELIZE, AND MEXICO
AUGUST 5-9, 2016

32. EARL CASUED OVER 40 DEATHS IN MEXICO

33. TROPICAL STORM EARL BECAME HURRICANE EARL

34. EVEN AS IT WAS DYING, EARL WAS DEADLY

35. The heavy rainfall from a diminished and dying Earl caused mudslides that led to 40 deaths in eastern Mexico’s Puebla State.

36. Earl dumped very heavy rain- fall on the region, causing flooding and mudslides, killing six people in the Mexican townships of Coscomatepec and Tequila and at least 40 in Puebla State

37. MUDSLIDES: SEARCH AND RESCUE

38. NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS IN 2016
FIONA - Tropical storm; No consequence (NC)
GASTON - Tropical storm; NC
HERMINE – Tropical storm; Hurricane
IAN – Tropical storm; NC
JULIA – Tropical storm; NC

39. HURRICANE GASTON (far right): HERMINE (TD 9--far left)

40. AUG. 31: GASTON DIED IN THE ATLANTIC

41. HERMINE HEADED FOR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AND PATH ALONG EAST COAST
Rain and wind already starting in Florida with much more to come

42. NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS IN 2016
KARL - Tropical storm; NC
LISA - Tropical storm; NC
MATTHEW – Tropical storm;

43. NAMED ATLANTIC BASIN STORMS STILL POSSIBLE IN 2016
NICOLE – Tropical storm;
OTTO – Tropical storm;
PAULA – Tropical storm
RICHARD –Tropical storm

44. GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE
WINDSTORM HAZARDS
PEOPLE & BLDGS.
VULNERABILITY
LOCATION
WINDSTORM RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
GOAL: WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE
COMMUNITIES
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
PREPAREDNESS
PROTECTION
EARLY WARNING
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

45. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL WIND-STORMS
PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY SEVERE WIND-STORM HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

46. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL WIND-STORMS TECHNOLOGIES THAT FACILITATE THREAT IDENTI-FICATION FOR EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

47. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE
ALL WINDSTORMS TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

48. STRATEGIC COLLABORATION IS IMPORTANT

49. STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE
PURPOSE
MONITORING FOR WARNING AND EVACUATION
PROTECTION
TECHNIQIE
DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION
WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION

50. STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE
PURPOSE
LAND USE CONTROL
COMMUNITY PROTECTION
TECHNIQIE
COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT
DIKES, LEVEES, AND DAMS

51. STRATEGIES FOR WINDSTORM DISASTER RESILIENCE
PURPOSE
TEMPORARY SHELTER
INSURANCE and (SELF-INSURANCE)
TECHNIQIE
SAFE HAVENS FOR EVACUEES
FACILITATE RECOVERY