SEADMC 2009 Scenario Brief 02 & 07 December 2009 02-0010 / 07-0008 As of 29 Nov 09

Seismic Activities in Sunda Strait October 15, 2009: Seismic tremors centered in Sunda Strait increased in intensity and frequency October 23-November 12, 2009: Eruptive activity on Anak Krakatau resumes. Most are minor Some large enough to cause CVGHM* to raise Alert Level to Alert Level 3 Alert Level lowered back to Alert Level 2 on 12 November Anak Krakatau Serang Jakarta * Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation

Indonesia Alert System Alert Level 1 Aktif Normal Monitoring does not indicate changes No eruption in foreseeable future Alert Level 2 Waspada Increasing activity, visual changes around crater Magmatic, tectonic disturbance, no eruption imminent Alert Level 3 Siaga Intensively increasing activity If trend of unrest continues, eruption possible in two weeks Alert Level 4 Awas Initial eruption of ash and vapor Main eruption possible within 24 hours

Increased Intensity November 15, 2009: Activity increases rapidly Alert Level raised to Alert Level 3 November 17, 2009: Alert Level raised to Alert Level 4

7.9 Earthquake and Eruption November 19, 2009: 7.9 earthquake strikes 13 km below surface just northeast of Anak Krakatau Anak Krakatau explodes, northern caldera disappears Ash plumes rise 10 km Pyroclastic flows speed outward to western Java-Banten Province Map / Graphic

Earthquake-generated Tsunami November 19, 2009: Earthquake-generated tsunami sweeps western Java and eastern Sumatra Waves up to 15 meters high strike west coast of Java from Merak to Tamanjaya. Northern coast of Banten Province hit by waves up to 10 meters high Banten town is destroyed

Death and Destruction Volcanic ash covers much of Banten Province, including Serang “Tens of thousands” are feared dead or missing Homes, business, resorts, farms, fish pens, roads are destroyed or damaged

Chemical Plants Damaged / Destroyed Earthquake and tsunami cause massive damage to chemical plants and port facilities in Anyer. Hazardous materials threaten life and property in coastal and industrial areas

Day 2: November 20, 2009 Ash continues to fall, moving east towards Jakarta Foreign governments press GOI for information on their nationals vacationing in resorts on west coast of Java International community offers relief aid, funds, personnel, equipment, and military support

Day 3: November 21, 2009 GOI responds to the disasters TNI supports BNPB, SATKORLAK Indonesia NGOs, in-country representatives of international NGOs, UN agencies ( in country) support GOI GOI resources are stretched to capacity GOI, UNDAC assessment teams deploy GOI welcomes international support and aid; starts prioritizing needs

Day 5: November 23, 2009 115,000 estimated population displaced Looming health emergency for survivors Food and potable water shortages creating Insufficient medical resources Significant international assistance begins to arrive in Jakarta and Serang. Some Anyer port facilities are able to receive supplies

Day 7: November 25, 2009 Foreign military commences major support to Banten Province relief efforts Thousands remain homeless Shelters overcrowded Medical resources inadequate Recovery of dead bodies and treatment of human remains becoming a major problem

Infrastructure Damage Deaths: Estimated 25,000 dead in Banten Province 15,000 in coastal areas: Merak to Tamanjaya 5,000 between coast and Serang 2,500 in Banten town and south towards Serang 2,000 in Serang Injuries: Approximately 18,000 (10,000 included in internally displaced) Trauma, fire Toxic poisoning Internally Displaced: Over 115,000 Mostly inland between Anyer and Merak and vicinity of Serang

Infrastructure Port Facilities: Roads: Structures: Wharves and warehouses between Merak and Anyer damaged / destroyed Chemical storage tanks in Merak port damaged; chemical spills cover coastal waters Roads: Roads between Merak and Tamanjaya damaged; many parts are impassible Expressway linking Jakarta and Merak damaged; all overpasses between Merak and Serang damaged Structures: Virtually all buildings and residences in tsunami zone damaged or destroyed Multi-story buildings in Serang damaged