The Decision-making Process Thoughts, Ideas and Practice

Definitions Choice about a “course of action” -- Simon Choice leading to “a certain desired objective” -- Churchman Knowledge indicating the nature of a commitment to action -- Holsapple and Whinston

Example A farmer with his wolf, goat, and cabbage come to the edge of a river they wish to cross. There is a boat at the river’s edge, but of course, only the farmer can row. The boat can only handle one animal/item in addition to the farmer. If the wolf is ever left alone with the goat, the wolf will eat the goat. If the goat is left alone with the cabbage, the goat will eat the cabbage. What should the farmer do to get across the river with all his possessions?

Decision-making As defined by Baker et al in their 2001 study, “efficient decision-making involves a series of steps that require the input of information at different stages of the process, as well as a process for feedback”.

Decisions Made up of a composite of information, data, facts and belief. Data by itself does not constitute useful information unless it is analyzed and processed.

A Decision Is only as good as the data that informed it Is only as good as it is an informed one Is only as good as the system which exists to implement Is only good if you have the means to implement it Is only good if other people understand it and what it means

The Ideal Decision-making Process STEP 1 Define the problem STEP 2 Determine the requirements that the solution to the problem must meet STEP 3 Establish goals that solving the problem should accomplish STEP 4 Identify alternatives that will solve the problem STEP 5 Develop valuation criteria based on the goals STEP 6 Select a decision-making Tool STEP 7 Apply the tool to select a preferred alternative STEP 8 Check the answer to make sure it solves the problem The Decision-making Process (adapted from Baker et al, 2001)

The Reality Is the Problem really the problem? Problems are often the symptom and not the true problem. Most often that not steps 5-8 are either forgotten, avoided or simply ignored. Urgency – is there a quick version? Who has time to follow-up? Tomorrow is another problem.