Worldwide NBC Threat This briefing is UNCLASSIFIED

DOD Perspective “I believe the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction presents the gravest threat the world has ever known.” WILLIAM COHEN SECRETARY OF DEFENSE JANUARY 1997

Agenda Historical Perspective Motivations Worldwide NBC Capabilities Outlook

Historical Perspective Four generations of Chemical Warfare Agents: 1st generation agents: Choking Agents: Chlorine, Phosgene Blood Agents: Hydrogen Cyanide & Cyanogen Chloride Blister Agents: Sulfur mustard, Nitrogen Mustard, Lewisite

Four Generations of Chemical Warfare Agents 2nd generation agents: G-series nerve agents: Tabun, Sarin, Soman 3rd generation agents: V-series nerve agents: VE, VG, VM, VS, and VX 4th generation agents: “Novichok”

Nonlethal Agents Riot Control Agents: Tear Gas Agents: CS, CN Vomiting Agents: Adamsite, Diphenyl Chloroarsine Incapacitants: Psychochemicals: LSD, BZ

Biological Warfare Agents Pathogens & Toxins Pathogens: organisms that cause disease in humans bacterial agents: anthrax, plague, tularemia & Q-fever viruses: smallpox, VEE, Marburg & Ebola viruses Toxins: poisonous compounds produced by living organisms botulinum, SEB, ricin

Biological Warfare Agents Advantages: No reliable BW detection devices currently available No recognizable signals to human exposure Can specifically target personnel, crops, livestock or specific kinds of materiel. Disadvantages: ultimate consequences uncertain potential for international outrage

Motivations to Acquire or Develop NBC Capability Regional threat perceptions Perception of utility Prestige Cost

NorthEast Asia

Offensive Programs Nuclear Chemical Biological North Korea possible yes yes China yes yes yes

North Korea Chemical Weapons: production capability for large quantities of nerve, blister, choking & blood agents. Biological Weapons: BW R&D for 30 years. Limited production capability: infectious BW agents, toxins & possible crude BW weapons. Nuclear Weapons: Believed enough plutonium for at least one nuclear weapon produced Delivery: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft, artillery, rocket launchers, mortars, sprayers

China Chemical Weapons: current inventory includes the full range of traditional agents, researching more advanced agents. Biological Weapons: consistently denies program, has advanced infrastructure and facilities needed for lethal pathogen R&D. Likely maintains program at pre-BWC level. Nuclear Weapons: First nuclear weapon test in 1964, 1996 test series probably to finalize weapon designs. No first use and no use against non-nuclear power policy. Over 100 nuclear warheads operationally deployed on ballistic missiles. Delivery: ballistic missile, cruise missiles, aircraft, artillery, rocket launchers, mortars.

Syria North Korea China Iran Pakistan Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean Missile Chemical Nuclear Missile Chemical Nuclear Indian Ocean

South Asia

Offensive Programs Nuclear Chemical Biological India yes yes no Pakistan yes yes no

India Chemical Weapons: Sizable chemical industry, June 1997 CWC declaration. Extensive commercial chemical industry. Chemical supplier to Middle Eastern countries of concern. Biological Weapons: Well developed biological technology. At least some facilities used to support biological defense R&D. Nuclear Weapons: Program initiation direct response to China’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Symbol of international power & prestige. Sufficient material & components for several nuclear weapons. Fighter aircraft delivery capable. Delivery: aircraft, artillery, rockets, possibly ballistic missiles

Pakistan Chemical Weapons: Able to transition from R&D to chemical agent production. Imported precursors, moving slowly toward a commercial precursor production capability. Biological Weapons: Capable, less well-developed infrastructure. Resources and capabilities for limited BW R&D effort. Nuclear Weapons: Program driven by the need to counter India’s conventional force superiority. Well-developed program and infrastructure to produce nuclear weapons. Sufficient material & components for several nuclear weapons. Fighter aircraft and possibly ballistic missile delivery capability. Delivery: artillery, aircraft, missiles

Middle East & North Africa

Offensive Programs Nuclear Chemical Biological Iran R&D yes yes Iraq R&D yes yes Libya R&D yes yes Syria no yes unknown

Iran Chemical Weapons: production capability since early in Iran-Iraq War. Ratified CWC, but continues to upgrade & expand. Manufactures blister, blood & choking agents, believed to be researching nerve agents. Biological Weapons: also began during Iran-Iraq war. Pace probably increasing since 1995 discovery of pre-Gulf War Iraqi BW program. Nuclear Weapons: attempting to acquire fissile material for development. Program restarted, possibly in reaction to scope of Iraqi program. China & Russia are key. Delivery: CW stockpile in artillery shells and bombs; otherwise fighter aircraft & rocket launchers.

Iraq Chemical Weapons: Variety of CW available before Gulf War, including mustard, tabun, sarin. Retains limited ability to reconstitute program. Retains technical knowledge to reconstruct & improve. Biological Weapons: Developed largest & most advanced BW program in the Middle East in the 1980s. Anthrax, botulinum & aflatoxin declared as weapons. Unilateral destruction claims in doubt. Nuclear Weapons: Gulf War bombing & monitoring caused significant setbacks. Doesn’t currently possess fissile material production infrastructure. Would have to rely heavily on foreign assistance. Delivery: fighter aircraft, helicopters, artillery, and rockets. Limited stockpile of short-range cruise and tactical missiles possible.

Key BW Program Elements Revealed After Hussein Kamel Defection Production Al Hakam, Daura Foot & Mouth Disease Institute, Taji, Salman Pak BW Agents 19,000 liters botulinum toxin Produced 8,500 liters anthrax 2,400 liters aflatoxin Testing Aerial bomb field trials: Anthrax & botulinum toxin Effects on animals observed: March 1988 Live agent 122-mm rocket firings: May 1990 Weaponization Began in large scale December 1990 166 aerial bombs filled with BW agent 25 SCUD warheads filled with BW agent 1990 effort to modify spray tanks for anthrax delivery. Biological Weapons deployed to operational delivery sites December 1990.

Libya Chemical Weapons: Produced up to 100 tons blister & nerve agents in 1980s. International attentions resulted in underground CW facility. Still seeking independent production capability, remains heavily reliant on foreign suppliers. Biological Weapons: Remains in the early R&D stages due to lack of scientific & technical base. May be capable of producing laboratory quantities of agent. Nuclear Weapons: Goal of acquiring a nuclear weapon remains. Will likely continue to develop a nuclear weapons infrastructure by whatever means available. Delivery: fighter aircraft, helicopters, artillery, and rockets available as potential delivery systems. Used transport aircraft in CW delivery attempt against Chadian troops in 1987.

Syria Chemical Weapons: A means to counter Israeli superiority & a leadership role in the Arab world. Program dates to the 70s. Has nerve agent stockpile, may attempt advanced nerve agent development. Foreign supply reliant. Biological Weapons: pursuing BW development, sufficient infrastructure for a small program. Probably no major BW weaponization or testing yet. Nuclear Weapons: Has not pursued development of nuclear weapons. Delivery: probably weaponized sarin into aerial bombs & SCUD warheads. Potentially cruise and tactical missiles, fighter aircraft, helicopters, artillery & rockets.

Former Soviet Union

Offensive Programs Nuclear Chemical Biological Russia yes yes yes

Russia Chemical Weapons: Declared largest CW stockpile in the world, mostly weaponized. Some chemical weapons incorporate agent mixtures & thickening agents. Biological Weapons: Inherited the former Soviet Union program-the largest in the world. Economic difficulties imply potential vulnerability of key personnel. Nuclear Weapons: Reduction effort under way, but plagued by financial difficulties. Delivery: variety of fighter aircraft, helicopters, artillery & rockets.

Non-state use of WMD Incident examples: 1995: Aum Shinrikyo cult attacks Tokyo subway with Sarin Plan to murder US Marshal & IRS agent with ricin 1995 & 1993: Aum Shinrikyo members confess to using anthrax and botulinim toxin against targets in Japan 1986: Typhoid bacteria disseminated by cult members 1984: Attempt to purchase botulism and tetanus agents 1972: Neo-nazi group manufactured typhoid bacilli in plan to contaminate water systems of large midwestern cities.

Dangers of Proliferation Potential for mass casualties Affect regional stability Threaten resource supply Difficult to counter

Outlook Lower Threshold for Use: Has been used in military conflicts Has been used by terrorist groups Seen as more acceptable option Most active WMD programs will continue with trend toward increasing sophistication in agents & delivery Treaties will not end the threat Proliferation is of great concern

Questions?

Worldwide NBC Threat This briefing has been UNCLASSIFIED