The Risks of an EMP Rebecca Sadosky, Terrell Brown

Risks by Perspective and Yield Dst (nT/min) EMP sources Area affected Notable effects Hundreds, low thousands Geomagnetic storms from solar flares or CMEs Continental or larger Dangerous overvoltages, transformer burnouts, massive surges High thousands, ten thousands Lightning at about 1 km distance Highly local Surges, blown fuses, damage to connected electrical equipment Hundred thousands Lightning at about 200 m Computer crashes (possibly permanent damage), blown up power transformers, power outages in parts of city. Fires around electrical equipment. Millions and tens of millions Nuclear EMPs at high altitude, nuclear EMPs from close-by small nuclear weapons, lightning within a few meters Varies Permanent damage to microelectronics, some erasure and corruption of magnetic media Hundreds of millions and up Conventional EMP weapons Very small Disabled vehicles including operating aircraft; numerous small fires, and arcing wherever there's metal Source: “EMP, Debunked: The Jolt That Could Fry the Cloud”, John Barnes, Information Week, 9/15/2014

Lightning? Yes, Lightning… If you’re not already protected against lightning strikes, you’re already in a lot of trouble.

Coronal Mass Ejections NASA - http://sec.gsfc.nasa.gov/popscise.jpg Space Weather Prediction Center - NOAA - http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms

Coronal Mass Ejections Happens Occasionally Over History Notable Occurrences Solar Storm of 1859, called the Carrington Event, disabled telegraph communications Hydro Quebec power outage lasted nine hours Rare Event, a few or less every one- hundred years Difficult to Prevent Downtime without having basic protections in place Ground, circuit overload protection, early warning systems will help

Weaponized EMP APELC – Applied Physical Electronics L.C. Suitcase System Very localized, city blocks or smaller High Altitude Explosion Strategic Nuclear Warhead Regional EMP Damage, but Continental? Tactical Nuclear Weapons – Localized EMP Damage

Weaponized EMP Suitcase/Small Form Factor The tactical or precision attack Banks, vehicle or building alarm systems, PLC’s, Also called an IEMI Device Intentional Electromagnetic Interference They can be built or purchased Expensive and difficult to acquire Dangerous but for small physical areas or very close electronics Probably your most likely threat but least damaging depending on the severity of the system affected May also come in the form of an EMP “gun” such as a high attenuated antenna with transmitter APELC Suitcase System Information Unlimited - http://www.amazing1.com/emp.html

Weaponized EMP Nuclear Weapons Tactical Tactical is localized, city level or smaller area, A low yield warhead would create a small area EMP, would cause loss of power and electronic devices in the affected area if they are not protected to some degree Perhaps basic or intermediate protections would help Maintain backup equipment in shield storage, use shielded cabling, grounding systems and circuit overload protections, etc Low risk and medium to high damage potential depending on area/targets affected

Weaponized EMP Nuclear Weapons Strategic large city, regional, or larger Would interrupt communications over a large area, large EMP would likely result in damage of electronics and power distribution systems on a catastrophic level To protect against an EMP of this magnitude is at least as difficult as protecting against direct lightning strikes You will have bigger problems to worry about but if you can implement practical protections, then do it Very low likelihood of occurring but greatest amount of damage and slowest recovery time.

So what are the actual risk? Lightning produces EMP’s. It does not require a direct strike. Protection is an immediate necessity. Biggest and most common risk. Geomagnetic storms brought on by CME’s do occur, this happens, the damage and disruption potential has been demonstrated. Find solutions to mitigate the problem and increase chances of recovery and reducing downtime. Medium to low risk. Small area, easily carried/transported weapons are a significant risk. The technology can be built in a garage. It can be used to circumvent security systems or cause havoc on power, water, or any aspect of infrastructure. Medium to low risk. Nuclear weapons, are not a likely threat. YES there are suspect leaders in the world but the only time a nuclear weapon was used in direct aggression was in 1945 and never have been since then. Very low risk. If you can protect your infrastructure against a tactical or even strategic nuclear event, then you can survive almost anything. But is it worth it?

QUESTIONS?