O PROJETO PIRATA & sua importância para a previsão climática regional. Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE IIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003 Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003 Paulo Nobre CPTEC/INPE X-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJ 23 August 2004

The PIRATA Rational To provide a better description of the two main modes of Tropical Atlantic SST variability, namely the: –Equatorial mode: [interannual] –Meridional mode: [decadal]

The PIRATA PROJECT FranceIRDBrazilINPE/DHNUSANOAA 1995 Fortaleza 1996 Natal st Buoy Moored 2001 MOU 2003 PIRATA BRAZIL 2004 PPA 2005SWE

THE PIRATA BACKBONE

PIRATA BRAZIL CPTEC/ INPE Satellite & Coupled O-A Modeling DHN/CHN Marine Operations IO/USP Education and Training FUNCEME Applications

Marine Operations

PIRATA SATELLITE DATA RELAY

PIRATA buoy data available on near-real time on the Internet: 12N 38W0N 23W AUG 23, 2004 TEMPERATURESOLAR RADIATION

Solar Radiation Estimates Diagramas de dispersão da série temporal diária de radiação solar à superfície da bóia PIRATA 8ºN 38ºW. ERA40 REANALISES GL 1.2 ISSCP PIRATA Diagramas de dispersão da série temporal diária de radiação solar à superfície da bóia PIRATA 8ºN 38ºW. ERA40 REANALISES GL 1.2 ISSCP PIRATA Diagramas de dispersão da série temporal diária de radiação solar à superfície da bóia PIRATA 8ºN 38ºW. ERA40 REANALISES GL 1.2 ISSCP PIRATA ERA40 REANALISES GL 1.2 ISSCP PIRATA PIRATA 8N-38W GOES PIRATA 8N-38W GOES 0.04 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution

Buoy Data Received at CPTEC from GTS within a 24h period.

PIRATA BACKBONE & SW EXTENSION Background Map: Long term mean No. SST observations/month (COADS)

PIRATA ARRAY PIRATA SWE

The PIRATA SWE: Why It? 1.To complement PIRATAs ITCZ study (the meridional SST mode) 2.To expand PIRATA, including SACZ sea- air exchanges and tropics-extra tropics interactions 3.To improve regional climate predictability

Objectives Improving knowledge of ocean- atmospheric interactions over the tropical South Atlantic toward generating skillful SST predictions –Modeling effort to improve coupled o-a models and forecasting tools –Enhancing oceanographic and meteorological observational infrastructure over the tropical South Atlantic

Mechanisms to be studied SITCZ-Cold Tong Complex (Grodsky and Carton, 2002) Western Atlantic Warm Pool (Huang and Carton, 1995) Eastern Nordeste seasonal rainfall predictability (Rao and Lima, 1993) SACZ-SST feedback processes (Chaves and Nobre, 2004; Barreiro and Chang, 2003)

An enhanced observational network over the SW Atlantic: Benefits Both satellite altimetry and tide gauges measurements along the coast and islands are necessary for an effective monitoring of mean sea level. T-S vertical profiles are needed to estimate the amount of heat stored on the upper ocean.

Density Anomaly Advection by the South Equatorial Current

SITCZ (Grodsky and Carton, 2002)

SACZ & SSTA : Observations NOVEMBER 1999

Nobre et al. (2002)

Source regions of Subtropical- Tropical Cell waters From: Hazeleger et al. (2003)

Anomaly Correlation: Nordeste Dry Spells Duration & SST

Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004

CPTECs Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model suite Forced Spin up AGCM OGCM SST Tau Heat IC Coupled Forecast Atmos FCST daily/hourly SFC fluxes SST OGCM AGCM daily

Coupled GCM for Weather Prediction: The Catarina Phenomenon

Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer climate?

Ventos & Correntes PIRATA

Equatorial Undercurrent Simulation at CPTEC

PERSISTENCE MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL Repelli and Nobre (2004)

SIMOC MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL Repelli and Nobre (2004)

SIMOC SSTA FORECAST SKILL North Atlantic South Atlantic NOVEMBER DECEMBER Repelli and Nobre (2004)

Nobre et al. (2002)

Chaves (2003) WARM-COLD SST OGCM EXPERIMENTS

CPTECs Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere model suite