Operational & Process Improvement using Simulation Process simulation can be a useful tool in operational and process improvement. This presentation gives a brief introduction to the benefits of simulations, how to approach it and some of its pitfalls.

Simulation is a useful technique to have in your change tool kit. It helps you to make the right change decisions and plan for the future.

Introduction This presentation gives you: a brief introduction to the benefits of simulations for operations, how to approach simulation and some of its pitfalls.

Simulation a Brief Introduction A computer simulation (or "sim") is an attempt to model a real-life or hypothetical situation on a computer so that it can be studied to see how the system works. Games or Gamification (Driving or Flight Simulators, Popular Sim games series) Weather Service processes Scientific e.g. Chemical processes, Physics Simulation Areas Medical (surgery, mannequins) Economics Social Behaviour Industrial & Manufacturing processes Networks Simulations are used in many areas and there are different types of simulation

Simulation Introduction We are focusing on using simulation for Process Improvement as an integrated part of a Business Transformation Approach. Operational and Process simulations are useful in modelling the flow of transactions/entities through business processes/operation. Many software tools support process modelling including some BPMN models.

Why Simulate Operations? It shows a ‘live’ and visual representation of the process Visualises operation Analysing Cycle time Identifying bottlenecks Optimise resource utilisation Improve Performance & Productivity Cheaper than real life by evaluating changes before investment Lower Cost Evaluation Experiment with new ideas before implementation Make better decisions by comparing scenarios to consider all the possibilities Understand where is the ‘tipping point’ Gain Insight to change effects Run scenarios spanning months/years in seconds Predict future performance by forecasting Time Saver Done in safety - It allows you simulate different scenarios risk free and quickly Safe

Simulation Approach – A simple A&E Example Simulation Process Simulation Approach – A simple A&E Example Doctor Nurse 1. Create a Process Map… Resus Treatment Resus Cubicle Triage Nurse Clerk Walk in Arrival Clerk Admit to Hospital Minor Treatment Nurse Cubicle Admissions Registration Waiting Room Triage Emergency service arrival Discharge Acute Treatment ER Bed 2. Define Process Attributes (Data) Activity How long? Resources required? Input/Output Conditions Schedule hrs Queue Capacity Priority Wait times etc 3. Bring to life with Visual Simulations Resource # Available Shift pattern Costs etc

Simulation Approach – A & E Example Use the A & E Simulation Model to see effects of changing the operation: Change Number beds available Staffing levels/ratios Arrival rates Treatment times Layout Process (for example introducing a GP drop in center) Goals Reduce Waiting times Improve patient flow Improve staff utilisation Reduce costs Simulation Aids Decision Making Lean and Six Sigma principles also can apply. Look at reducing errors, and also travel times between stations (locations), repeats etc. Can also be used for future planning by forecasting and modelling demand growth over a period of time. Simulation Models can be used in many operational areas: Integrated care network, A&E, Operating theatres, Hospital Usage/Bed Capacity, Referrals & Transfer, etc

Simulation Approach Define Problem Area and Purpose Data Collection Define process model of As Is Operation Understanding performance/variables Identify hot topics for simulation Data Collection Gathering data Statistical analysis & data patterns Simulation Modelling Simulation runs Change Scenarios & What Ifs Reporting Results Knowledge Recommendations

Approach – Points to note for effective Simulation Organisation to be modelled: Requires a degree of organisational process maturity A defined and stable process to model Sufficient existing operational Data People with skills in: Process Modelling Simulation tools Statistical tools & Interpreting the data Focus on process improvement Optimising Processes are performance managed and controlled Managed Processes are documented and standards consistently applied Defined Processes are known and managed at unit levels Repeatable Processes unpredictable and uncontrolled Initial Use with Caution A Model is an abstraction of the real world complexities Insufficient variability/Randomness Different types of events/actions Too many assumptions Physical & Political impact of changes Don’t Make it too Fragile, highly optimised without robustness or spare capacity. Use simulations with caution. Real world is different more variable, if your model assumptions are not reflecting reality then results cannot be trusted. For example: if you model a person to process 1000’s of transactions a minute, this may be an unrealistic expectation, unless you’ve got superpowers. Set parameters with realistic expectations. Simulation modelling does require a degree of specialist knowledge in statistical techniques and modelling tools.