Real-time NPJ Phase Diagram 2017 Verification Statistics (Updated: 3 April 2017)

Notes for Interpretation Jet Regimes, for the purpose of analyzing forecast skill, were defined according to the position in the phase diagram when a particular forecast was initialized. Forecasts by month were classified according to the date a particular forecast was initialized (e.g., a forecast initialized Jan. 31, is grouped into the January bin). For the time series plots, each point along the black line corresponds to the error of the #-day forecast that was initialized on that particular day, NOT the error on the day the #-day forecast verified.

Reliability Diagram (Sept 1–Apr. 3) Perfect Reliability The GEFS appears to be underdispersive with respect to medium-range forecasts of the North Pacific Jet in the phase diagram

GFS Average Error – Regime

GFS Average Error – Month

Average GEFS Mean Error – Regime

Average GEFS Mean Error – Month

Average GEFS Ens. Member Error – Regime

Average GEFS Ens. Member Error – Month

GEFS POD – Regime

GEFS POD – Month

Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error 1-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day

Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error 2-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day

Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error 3-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day

Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error 4-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day

Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error 5-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day

Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error 6-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day

Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error 7-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day

Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error 8-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day

Time Series of GFS and GEFS Mean Error 9-Day Forecast GFS GEFS Mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Colored dots identify the jet regime on a particular day