AGEING IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: AN OVERVIEW Session 1/1c AGEING IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC: AN OVERVIEW Astrid Bant, UNFPA Representative

Outline Trends in population ageing Gender dimensions of ageing Retirement income Changing workforce Health care and NCD Industry 4.0 Policy implications

1. Ageing is transforming the world The 21st century will be the first era in which humanity will no longer be young Developing countries, where most people aged 60 plus already live is ageing fastest By 2030, older persons will outnumber children aged 0-9 years (1.4 billion versus 1.3 billion); By 2050, there will be more people aged 60 years or over than adolescents and youth aged 10-24 years (2.1 billion versus 2.0 billion). The Asia-Pacific region is where we witness the most rapid population aging

Asia and Pacific total population, 2016 (thousand people) Session 1/1c Asia and Pacific total population, 2016 (thousand people) By 2016, there was a total of 4.4 billion people in Asia and Pacific region, accounting for 60% of the total world population All countries in Asia and Pacific is ageing, even though at different speed

Trends in population ageing Session 1/1c Trends in population ageing The Asia-Pacific region is undergoing profound and rapid population changes. All countries in Asia and the Pacific are in the process of ageing at an unprecedented pace, although the timing and pace of this transition varies across the region. Source: ESCAP, 2017

GDP per capita and ageing population Session 1/1c GDP per capita and ageing population Countries with higher incomes tend to be more advanced in the ageing process. It also shows that some countries became old before becoming rich, such as Georgia, Armenia and Sri Lanka with per capita incomes between $3,500 and $4,100 and a proportion of older persons between 13 and almost 20 per cent. Brunei Darussalam is a country that is rich but not yet aged with a per capita income of more than $40,000 and a percentage of older persons at 7 per cent.

Increasing pace of ageing Session 1/1c Increasing pace of ageing The pace of ageing is also more rapid in the developing countries in the Asian and Pacific region and at a much earlier stage of development compared to developed countries, giving them limited time and opportunity to adjust to the needs of an aged society

2. Gender dimensions of ageing Feminization of ageing, especially at more advance age: the proportion of women in the population increases with age (90.8 men for every 100 women above 60yo, 69.5 men for every 100 women above 80yo) Older women living alone and/or in widowhood is much higher than men as women lives longer Older women are less likely to have income security and are often discriminated against due to their limited access to resources and opportunities, including health care, adequate housing, social protection and legal justice Disability increases with age, especially in women

3. Retirement incomes How to fund retirement income in a longer term? And for more beneficiaries? How much is enough? Taxed funded? Private retirement savings? Current and future expenditure by government on pension? Adequate allocation within social protection for different pillars and groups? How to meet individual needs by older persons?

Challenges in pension system Session 1/1c Challenges in pension system Quay lại phân loại các nước trong khu vực Châu Á – Thái Bình Dương. Việt Nam nằm trong các nước già hóa và cần phải giải quyết thách thức hệ thống hư trí không bền vững

Expanding social protection for all Session 1/1c Expanding social protection for all Low social protection coverage in low- middle income countries: expand contributory and non-contributory pensions Large working age population  large future elderly population  high financial needs National defined SPF?? Poor Rest of informal sector Formal sector Population

International trend: Social pension development Session 1/1c International trend: Social pension development Xu hướng quốc tế là sử dụng hưu trí xã hội để hướng tới đạt được hưu trí toàn dân và an sinh xã hội toàn dân Việt Nam hiện nay mới có chính sách trợ giúp xã hội toàn dân cho NCT 80 trở lên. Chính phủ nên xem xét giảm độ tuổi hưởng xuống 75 và dần dần tới 70 tuổi. Chi phí cho an sinh xã hội toàn dân nếu áp dụng cho toàn bộ dân số từ 70 tuổi trở lên chỉ chiếm khoảng 0,1% GDP theo tính toán của UNFPA) Về lâu dài, khi tỷ lệ lao động phi chính thức giảm xuống, đồng thời hệ thống hưu trí mở rộng được tới khu vực phi chính thức thì chi cho hưu trí xã hội cũng sẽ giảm xuống

4. Changing workforce

Old age support ratio

Changing workforce, productivity and growth Workforce structure: total workforce with decreasing in size and increasing in age Maintain and improve productivity by technology and robotic appliance in OECD countries Support and increase women’s participation in labour force Roadmap to gradually increase retirement age for both women and men Increase women participation in the workforce

5. Healthcare and NCDs Health system need to meet the increasing needs of NCDs For middle and low income countries: double burdens of both communicable and non-communicable diseases Increasing mental health issues (dementia, Alzheimer, stress) Increasing needs in supporting for activities of daily living (ADL) Cost of health insurance

Session 1/1c 6. Industry 4.0 Recent study (2017) in OECD and some developing countries on the impact of ageing on economic growth in the age of automation “Countries experiencing more rapid ageing have grown more in recent decades. ..This finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes” Applying of artificial intelligent and smart factory Industry 4.0 is the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the Internet of things and cloud computing. Industry 4.0 creates what has been called a "smart factory".

7. Implications for policy Ageing if not just about older persons. It affect all facets of the society and have impacts on all population groups Need to develop and implement comprehensive policy frameworks to address the needs of older persons, adopting an integrated approach and relevant to national context; Provide the financial and human resources as well as the institutional arrangements needed to implement national policies and plans of action on ageing Improve and build upon existing data sets and surveys at the national and regional level to inform sectoral policies on ageing

Implication for policy Secure and sustainable retirement income Maintain workforce participation rate, and removal of barriers to the continued participation of mature age workers in the workforce Reorient health systems along to deliver comprehensive health care sensitive to the needs of older persons with the overall framework of universal health care coverage Apply technology, especially supportive devices for older persons Mainstream ageing into all sectors of public policy, particularly in relation to addressing the rise of non-communicable diseases and providing social protection for vulnerable, poor older persons.