Progress 8 and Attainment 8: An explanation

What is Progress 8? Progress 8 is a new secondary accountability measure aimed at measuring the progress of pupils across a selected set of 8 subjects from the end of primary school to the end of secondary school. It is a type of value added measure, meaning that pupils’ results are compared to the results of other pupils with the same prior attainment. Progress 8 has been introduced alongside another new accountability measure; Attainment 8 – the two are linked and will be explained in later slides. A school’s Progress 8 score will be calculated as the average of its pupils’ Progress 8 scores. It will give an indication of whether, as a group, pupils in the school made above or below average progress compared to similar pupils in other schools.

How will Progress 8 be reported? From 2016, the headline indicator of school performance determining the floor standard will be Progress 8. A school’s Progress 8 score and the Attainment 8 score will be published in the performance tables and RAISEonline from 2016, alongside percentage of pupils achieving the threshold in English and mathematics, and percentage of pupils achieving the EBacc. Progress 8 and Attainment 8 scores have been published in the 2015 performance tables for those schools that adopted the new performance measures a year early. Schools that did not opt in early have been provided with Attainment 8 and Progress 8 data based on 2015 results to help them plan for the implementation of Progress 8 in 2016, but this information will not be published.

The link between Progress 8 and Attainment 8 To understand Progress 8 it is necessary to first understand Attainment 8. The Progress 8 score is based on pupils performance score across 8 subjects – this performance score is known as the “Attainment 8” score. Attainment 8 is a measure of a pupil’s average grade across a set suite of eight subjects. Once calculated, this Attainment 8 score is compared to the average Attainment 8 score of all pupils nationally with the same prior attainment at KS2 in order to calculate a pupils Progress 8 score. A school’s Attainment 8 score is the mean of its pupils Attainment 8 scores. Likewise, a school’s Progress 8 score is the mean of its pupils Progress 8 scores.

GCSE point scale scores GCSE GRADE 2016 POINTS A* 8.0 A 7.0 B 6.0 C 5.0 D 4.0 E 3.0 F 2.0 G 1.0 GCSE grades will be measured on a 1-8 point score scale, rather than the old 16-58 scale. On this new scale, 1 is equivalent to a Grade G GCSE. An increase in one point will represent an increase of one GCSE grade up to 8, which is equivalent to an A* GCSE.

Which subjects count towards Attainment 8? The Attainment 8 measure will take the average of a pupils points across a set of their best 8 subjects at KS4. The 8 qualifications that count towards the Attainment 8 measure must fall into one of three “buckets.” If a qualification does not fall into one of these buckets, it is not counted in the Attainment 8 (or Progress 8) measure. A full list of qualifications that count in the EBacc is available online here.

The Attainment 8 Buckets 1 2 3 English EBacc Other Mathematics EBacc Other EBacc Other Bucket 1 One slot for English and one for maths. Maths is double-weighted. Bucket 2 Three EBacc qualifications (Sciences, computer sciences, geography, history or languages) Bucket 3 Three “other” slots Any remaining Ebacc qualifications Other approved academic, arts or vocational qualifications

Bucket 1 Bucket 1 can only be filled by English and Maths. Maths is given double weighting when calculating the pupils Attainment 8 score . English is only double weighted if a pupil has taken both English Language and English Literature. In this case, the higher of the two grades is used here and double weighted. The lower graded English subject can still be included in the third bucket – the “open group,” but only if it is one of the pupils eight highest grade. Otherwise, this space will be filled by a higher grade. English Mathematics English and maths; double-weighted

Three EBacc qualifications Bucket 2 Bucket 2 can be filled with a pupils three highest EBacc qualifications. Double science would count as two slots in this bucket. Core science and additional science GCSE would also take up one slot each. Mathematics, English Language and English Literature can not be included in the EBacc bucket. These grades are not double weighted. EBacc EBacc EBacc Three EBacc qualifications

Bucket 3 Bucket 3 is filled with a pupils three highest point scores in any three other subjects, including English Literature and Language (if not counted in bucket 1), any further Ebacc qualifications, other GCSEs, or any other approved academic or vocational qualifications. These grades are not double weighted. Other Other Other Any remaining Ebacc qualifications Other approved academic, arts or vocational qualifications

8 Qualifications? The 8 grades from the three buckets are added together and divided by 10 to produce a students Attainment 8 score. The maths grade in bucket 1 is given double weighting, as is English if the pupil has taken both English Literature and English Language. No matter how full or empty the three buckets are, a students score is always divided by 10 to produce an average score (10 representing the 6 subject slots, with English & Maths double weighted) It is not mandatory for students to fill the three buckets or take 8 qualifications. If a student has fewer than 8 qualifications, or if some of their qualifications do not fit into one of the three buckets then they will score 0 points for the unfilled slots. Consider the following example pupils Gillian and Mary:

Example pupil results - Gillian SUBJECT GRADE INCLUDED IN MEASURE? Maths 7 (A) YES – Bucket 1 (double weighted to 14) English Literature 8 (A*) YES – Bucket 1 (double weighted to 16 as Gillian has also taken English Language.) Additional science 6 (B) YES – Bucket 2 Core science Geography Art YES – Bucket 3 Music 5 (C) English Language

Calculating Gillian’s Attainment 8 score To produce Gillian’s Attainment 8 score, Gillian’s grades below are first added together. Maths is double weighted. In Gillian’s case, English Literature is also double weighted since she has also taken English Language. Attainment 8 score calculation = (7+7) + (8+8) +6 +7 +7 +6 +5 +6 Gillian’s Attainment 8 score is 67. Maths: 14 Additional Science: 6 Art: 6 Core Science: 7 Music: 5 English Literature: 16 1 Geography: 7 English Language: 6 2 3 English EBacc Other Other Mathematics EBacc Other EBacc

Calculating Gillian’s Attainment 8 score (cont.) Dividing the Attainment 8 score by 10 gives a pupils average grade. No matter how full or empty the three buckets are, a students score is always divided by 10 to produce an average score. Gillian has therefore achieved an average Attainment 8 grade of 6.7 – between GCSE grades A and B. (14 + 16 + 6 + 7 + 7 + 6 + 5 + 6) / 10 = 6.7

Example student results: Mary Subject Grade Included in measure? English Literature 3 (E) YES – Bucket 1 (not double weighted as Mary hasn’t taken English Language) Maths 5 (C) YES – Bucket 2 (double weighted to 10) BTEC First Award in Hospitality 4 (Distinction) YES – Bucket 3 Cambridge National Certificate in ICT PE Music 4 (D) NO (all “other” slots filled) Art Cambridge National Certificate in Business and Enterprise Mary has taken no EBacc subjects, and her English grade can’t be double weighted as she didn’t take English Language. Having already filled bucket 3, her remaining three subjects can’t be used in the Attainment 8 measure as they can’t be counted in the EBacc bucket. These therefore count as 0 in the calculations.

Calculating Mary’s Attainment 8 score Looking at her scores, Mary has achieved an Attainment 8 score of 29: 3+10+6+5+5+0+0+0 = 26 Dividing this score by 10 produces her average Attainment 8 grade, which in this case is 2.6, which would be a GCSE grade F.

Calculating Progress 8 Progress 8 scores are calculated for pupils for the sole purpose of calculating the school’s Progress 8 score. A pupil’s Progress 8 score is defined as a pupil’s actual Attainment 8 score, minus their estimated Attainment 8 score. The estimated Attainment 8 score is the average Attainment 8 score of all pupils nationally with the same prior attainment at KS2. For 2016, this ‘prior attainment’ is defined as the average of a pupils KS2 English and mathematics results, in fine graded levels. From 2017 onwards, reading and mathematics test results only will be used in calculating KS2 prior attainment fine levels for use in Progress 8.

Calculating estimated Attainment 8 scores The table on the next slide shows the Attainment 8 estimates for each key stage 2 average fine level, based on the 2015 cohort averages. This estimated Attainment 8 figure is compared to a pupil’s actual Attainment 8 score in order to produce a pupil’s Progress 8 score. This information is available on page 29 of the DfE’s Progress 8 measure in 2016, 2017, and 2018 Guide for maintained secondary schools, academies and free schools here.

2015 Attainment 8 estimates for each KS2 fine level

Calculating a pupil’s prior attainment For 2016, prior attainment is defined as the average of a pupils KS2 English and maths results, in fine graded levels. If our example pupil Gillian achieved KS2 English and mathematics test marks of (for example) 77 and 74 respectively, these test marks would first be converted to fine grade by the following formula, where the level and level thresholds are determined by the mark: Fine grade is then rounded to 2 decimal places and multiplied by 6 to calculate fine points. Once the KS2 English and mathematics marks have been converted to fine points, an average of the two is taken to provide an overall point score. This is then divided by 6 and rounded to 1 decimal place to obtain the fine level as used in Progress 8 calculations Further technical information on these calculations is available in the DfE guidance here Basic level + Actual test mark – bottom of level threshold Top of level threshold – bottom of level threshold + 1

Example: converting Gillian’s test marks into a fine level KS2 English test outcome KS2 mathematics test outcome 1 Test mark = 77 Test mark = 74 Fine point score = 31.62 Fine point score = 29.10 2 30.36 3 5.1 4 The KS2 test mark is taken The test mark is converted to a fine grade using the formula from the previous slide. The average is taken of the two fine point scores in English and mathematics. In this example an average of 30.36 is produced. This average is divided by 6, producing an average fine level of 5.1

Calculating Gillian’s Progress 8 score As we saw in earlier slides, our example pupil Gillian achieved an actual Attainment 8 score of 67. This score needs to be compared to her estimated Attainment 8 score in order to calculate her Progress 8 score. Gillian’s KS2 fine point scores were 31.62 and 29.10 in English and mathematics, an average of 30.36, which divided by 6 gives an average fine level of 5.1. This average fine level is used to determine what Gillian’s estimated Attainment 8 score is, by consulting the table on slide 19. This table shows that the national average Attainment 8 score for pupils with Gillian’s KS2 fine level (5.1) is 59.32 in that year. Gillian’s Progress 8 score is the difference between her actual Attainment 8 scores and the estimated Attainment 8 score, divided by 10. 67 – 59.32 = +7.68/10 = +0.77

Calculating Gillian’s Progress 8 score (cont.) Gillian’s KS2 average fine level Average Attainment 8 score of all pupils with an average grade level of 5.1 at KS2 Gillian’s estimated Attainment 8 score Gillian’s actual Attainment 8 score Gillian’s Progress 8 score (actual – estimate) 5.1 59.32 points 67 points (67 – 59.32) / 10 = +0.77 Gillian’s Progress 8 score is +0.77. This means that she has achieved an average of over three quarters of a grade better per subject than other pupils with the same prior attainment.

Calculating Progress 8 for schools The school’s Progress 8 score is the mean average of its pupils’ Progress 8 scores. For all mainstream pupils nationally, the average Progress 8 score will be zero. A school’s Progress 8 score is calculated by adding each individual pupil’s Progress 8 score, and then dividing this total by the number of pupils. For example…

Example calculation of School Progress 8 score Assuming that Gillian is one of 142 pupils in a schools KS4 cohort (each with a range of Progress 8 scores): The school’s Progress 8 score is calculated as 68.50/142 = +0.5 This example score indicates that the average achievement of this school’s pupils is half a grade better per subject than the national average of other pupils with the same prior attainment. Pupil Number Pupil Name Pupil Progress 8 score 1 Gillian +0.77 2 Mary -0.70 … 142 Hardeep +1.0 Total: +68.50

Interpreting Progress 8 scores The Progress 8 measure will be the only measure used for floor standards. A school will fall below the new floor standard if their Progress 8 score is below -0.5 and the upper band of the 95% confidence interval is below zero. This score would indicate that the average achievement of a school’s pupils is half a grade worse per subject than the national average of other pupils with the same prior attainment. If schools fall below this floor standard, this may trigger an Ofsted inspection. Schools in which pupils make on average one grade more progress than the national average (a Progress 8 score of +1.0 or above) will be exempt from routine inspections by Ofsted in the calendar year following the publication of the final performance tables.

Further information Further information is provided in the DfE July 2016 document: ‘Progress 8 measure in 2016, 2017, and 2018. Guide for maintained secondary schools, academies and free schools’ This document contains further technical information on the various calculations involved in the measures, as well as further information on confidence intervals and how these will be calculated. (Annex A) The document also contains the 2016, 2017, and 2018 performance tables points for a level and grade structure combination, and worked examples of how to calculate the 2016 points for a BTEC First Award and an OCR Cambridge National Certificate. (Annex A) The DfE has produced a short video explanation of Progress 8, available to view online here.