PISA 2015 results in England John Jerrim and Nikki Shure UCL Institute of Education

Background 72 countries participated (75 if you separate out the UK)………….. Conducted every three years since 2000 Reading, mathematics, science, collaborative problem solving Computer-based assessment for the first time in 2015…….. Focus in 2015 = science. 30 points = 1 year of schooling. 100 points = One international standard deviation.

1. What are we good at?

1a. Science (average scores) > 20 points above Between 10 and 20 points below Country Mean Singapore 556* Estonia 534* Japan 538* Taiwan 532* Country Mean Belgium 502* United States 496* Denmark Austria 495* Poland 501* France Portugal Sweden 493* Northern Ireland 500* Czech Republic Norway 498* Spain Scotland 497* > 10 points above Country Mean Finland 531* Vietnam 525* Macao 529* Hong Kong 523* Canada 528*   Between 20 and 30 points below Within 10 points Country Mean Latvia 490* Wales 485* Russia 487* Luxembourg 483* Country Mean China 518 Australia 510 South Korea 516 Germany 509 New Zealand 513 Netherlands Slovenia Switzerland 506 England 512 Ireland 503* ….+35 other countries > 30 points below

1a. Science (average scores) Significantly above the OECD average…..

1b. High-achieving pupils in science > 20 points above Between 10 and 20 points below Country 90th percentile Singapore 683* Country 90th percentile Macao 630* Vietnam 624* Belgium 629* France 623* United States 626* Hong Kong 622* Sweden 625* Norway > 10 points above Country 90th percentile Taiwan 655* Japan Between 20 and 30 points below Within 10 points Country 90th percentile Austria 621* Czech Republic 618* Portugal 620* Malta Scotland 619* Ireland Poland Denmark 617* Northern Ireland Luxembourg 615* Country P90 Finland 651* Australia 639 China 649 Netherlands 638 Estonia 648 Slovenia 636 New Zealand 647 Germany Canada 644 South Korea England 642 Switzerland 632 ….+38 other countries > 30 points below

1c. Example question…. ‘Bird migration is a seasonal large-scale movement of birds to and from their breeding grounds. Every year volunteers count migrating birds at specific locations. Scientists capture some of the birds and tag their legs with a combination of coloured rings and flags. The scientists use sightings of tagged birds together with volunteers' counts to determine the migratory routes of birds.’ Identify a factor that might make volunteers’ counts of migrating birds inaccurate, and explain how that factor will affect the count.

1c. Example question

2. What are we not so good at?

2a. Maths (average scores) > 20 points above Between 10 and 20 points below Country Mean score Singapore 564* China 531* Hong Kong 548* South Korea 524* Macao 544* Switzerland 521* Taiwan 542* Estonia 520* Japan 532* Canada 516* Country Mean score Latvia 482* Wales 478* Malta 479* Hungary 477* Lithuania Slovakia 475* > 10 points above Between 20 and 30 points below Country Mean score Netherlands 512* Belgium 507* Denmark 511* Germany 506* Finland Poland 504* Slovenia 510* Ireland Country Mean score Israel 470* Croatia 464* United States Within 10 points Country Mean score Norway 502* Northern Ireland 493 Austria 497 Czech Republic 492 New Zealand 495 Portugal Vietnam Scotland 491 Russia 494 Italy 490 Sweden Iceland 488 Australia Spain 486* England Luxembourg France   ….+27 other countries > 30 points below

2a. ….. Though we are not THAT bad Same as the OECD average…..

2b. Particular issue with the bottom tail in maths…… > 20 points above Within 10 points Country 10th percentile Macao 439* Ireland 400* Singapore 436* Switzerland 394* Hong Kong 426* Slovenia Japan 416* Poland 391* Estonia 415* South Korea Denmark 405* Norway Finland 404* Netherlands 390* Taiwan Germany 389* Canada Country 10th percentile Wales 377 England 369 Sweden 376 Italy 368 New Zealand 375 Iceland 367 Belgium 374 Lithuania 365 Spain Portugal Czech Republic 373 France 364 Australia 371 Luxembourg 363 Austria 370   > 10 points above Between 10 and 20 points below Country 10th percentile Vietnam 388* Russia 387* China Scotland 382* Northern Ireland Latvia Country 10th percentile United States 355* Croatia 351* Hungary Slovakia 349* ….+29 other countries > 30 points below

3. Changes over time

3a. Very little has happened to mean score in England since 2006

3b. But things have changed in some other parts of the UK….. Mean science scores Scotland big decline in 2015…. Wales a consistent downwards trend…

3c. Decline in performance of top 10% in science in NI/ Scotland/ Wales…..

4. What do headteachers perceive to be our greatest challenges?

4a. Staff shortages and physical infrastructure key concerns…   England OECD H10+ A lack of teaching staff 45% 29%* 31%* Inadequate or poorly qualified teachers 22% 20% 26% A lack of assisting staff 18% 36%* 33%* Inadequate or poorly qualified assisting staff 12% 19%* 20%* A lack of educational material 29% 34% 32% Inadequate or poor quality educational material 30% A lack of physical infrastructure 48% 37%* Inadequate or poor quality physical infrastructure 35%* H10 refers to 10 countries with highest average science scores….

Lack of educational material 4b. Lack of educational material and poor infrastructure key concerns in low-performing schools…. Lack of educational material Poor infrastructure

5. The best of the rest…..

5a. Time spent studying science in school quite high in England compared to other countries…… England spend quite a lot of time studying science in school as part of their timetable per week…… …but little evidence that countries with more timetabled hours have higher average scores

5b. Out of school study hours reasonably similar….. Out-of-school study hours in England reported to be similar to most other high-performing countries……. ….other than Singapore and China Total hours studying much lower in Finland….

5c. Aspirations towards STEM careers high in England…. Aspirations towards a STEM career high in England….. More so than in the average OECD or high- performing country….. And more so than in 2006….