Research and Hazard Challenges Raised by

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Presentation transcript:

Research and Hazard Challenges Raised by Recent Major and Great Earthquakes Thorne Lay, University of California Santa Cruz 1

2004-2015 - 19 great earthquakes: rate 1 2004-2015 - 19 great earthquakes: rate 1.7/yr; rate over preceding century 0.7/yr Green: M8+ earthquakes (1900-2003) Blue: M8+ earthquakes (2004-2015) Small Symbols: Great Events 1900-2004 Updated from Lay, EPSL 2015

Large Earthquake Seismicity Great Earthquake Scenarios triggering interactions In addition, the large earthquake did not occur regularly in time either. The surge of large earthquakes over last ten years have shown us a great diversity in the rupture pattern and earthquake triggering interactions. Lay, 2015, EPSL

Earthquake history gives useful guidance on behavior: Seismic Gap notion – strain energy budget and seismic history McCann et al., 1979 Site of great interplate rupture 2004-2015

Sumatra-Sunda Struck by a ‘cluster’ of great/very large earthquakes since 2004. Dec. 26, 2004 – ‘unexpected’ northward extension to Andaman Islands. 9.2 March 2005 – adjacent ‘aftershock’. 8.6 July 2006 – Java tsunami earthquake. 7.8 Sept. 2007 – Kepulauan pair. 8.5, 7.9 Oct. 2010 – Mentawai tsunami earthquake. 7.8 Similar to Alaska-Aleutians sequence of 1946, 1957, 1964, 1965 Where will the next one be? - 1797 ‘gap’? Sumatran Fault? Sumba potential? Lay, EPSL 2015

2001 8.4 2014 8.1 Remaining Mature Seismic Gaps Along Chile 30% 1868 zone 80% 1877 zone 1922 zone 2015 8.3 2010 8.8

Are the recent events repeats? Ye et al., EPSL in press

Large Mature Seismic Gaps That Could Be Targeted Strain accumulation, seismicity Mentawai Gap, near Padang (1797 last large rupture) N. Chile Gap (1877; 20% ruptured 2014) S. Peru Gap (1866; 70% ruptured 2011) C. Chile Gap (1922)

Furlong et al., Science (2009) April 1, 2007 Solomon Islands Earthquake Mw=8.1 Rupture Across a Triple Junction Furlong et al., Science (2009)

Subducting Ridge/Fracture Zone Structures That Could Be Targeted. Strain accumulation (?), slow-slip events (?), tremor (?), hazard (?), friction (?), topographic effect (?) Tehuantepec Ridge (Guatemala) Carnegie Ridge (Ecuador) Nazca Ridge (Peru) Investigator Fracture Zone (Mentawai Gap) Cocos Ridge (Costa Rica) Louisville Ridge (Tonga)

Subduction Zones with no history of great earthquakes. Strain accumulation (?), slow-slip events (?), tremor (?), hazard (?), friction (?) Tonga Southern Kermadec Izu Marianas Sunda

2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake: Up-dip rupture from 2007 Sumatra events very shallow on plate boundary, with up to 16 m high tsunami on Pagai islands Have global seismic data, local hr-GPS from islands, and tsunami recordings from DART stations and tide gauges: Invert them all.

Shallow toes of subduction zones. Strain accumulation (?), slow-slip events (?), tremor (?), tsunami hazard (?), sediments and friction (?) Java Up-dip of 2016 Ecuador Up-dip zone in 1835/2010 Chile low-slip zone Up-dip of 2007 Sumatra event (south of 2010) Up-dip of 2003 Hokkaido event

Personal opinion: SZO should target some long-standing important problems and try to solve them, not just do study of ‘complexity’ for the sake of interdisciplinary participation.