4th International Conference on Population Geographies, Hong Kong Urbanisation And Growth of Million + Cities in India Greetings from India 4th International Conference on Population Geographies, Hong Kong Dr U V Somayajulu Mr Tilak Mukherji TNS India

Background Growth of Urban Centres and concentration of population in urban areas is major transformation in 20th century Urban population is growing 3 times faster than rural areas By 2030, three fifth of World Population will be urban By 2030, three fifth of World’s Urban Population will be in less developed region India, the second most populous country, is home to large urban population

This Paper Analyses Trends and patterns of urbanisation in India Distribution of Urban Population Growth of Towns of Different size including Million + cities Based on the Indian Census data

Brief Profile of India Population (2007) 1135.6 millions Urban Population (2007) 329.3 millions % Urban Population (2007) 29 Life Exp at Birth (2004) 63 years IMR (per 1000LB) (2004) 62 % population below poverty line(2003) 31

Definition of Urban Areas All the places with municipality, corporation etc., All other places with Minimum population of 5000 At least 75% male working population in non agricultural pursuits Density of population of at least 400 persons/Sq Km

Definition of Urban Agglomeration The concept of “Town Group” introduced in 1961 census to understand urban spread Refined in 1971 with the concept of ‘Urban Agglomeration’ to better understand urban contingents, processes and trends of urbanisation An Urban Agglomeration constitutes: A city or Town with continuous outgrowth, the outgrowth being outside the statutory limits but falling within boundaries of adjoining village(s) Two or more adjoining towns with their outgrowths A city and one or more adjoining towns with or without all of which form a continuous spread

Trends of (Urban) Population (in Millions, Pre Independence)

Trends of (Urban) Population (In Millions, Post Independence)

Level of Urbanisation

Projected India’s Urban Population Year Urban Population (‘000s) Level of Urbanisation(%) 2005 330.12 31 2010 380.21 33 2015 435.11 36 2025 565.80 43 2030 634.05 46

No. of UAs/Towns

Classification of Towns/UAs 100,000 and above Class II 50,000 – 99,999 Class III 20,000 – 49,999 Class IV 10,000 – 19,999 Class V 5,000 - 9,999 Class VI <5,000

Distribution of Towns by Town Class Year Class I Class II Class III Class IV Class V Class VI 1901 24 43 130 391 744 479 1911 23 40 135 364 707 485 1921 29 45 145 370 734 571 1931 35 56 183 434 800 509 1941 49 74 242 498 920 407 1951 76 91 327 608 1124 569 1961 102 129 437 719 711 172 1971 148 173 558 827 623 147 1981 216 220 738 1053 739 229 1991 296 341 927 1135 725 185 2001 433 1386 1560 1057 227

Distribution of Urban Population by Town Class(%) Year Class I Class II Class III Class IV Class V Class VI 1901 26.00 11.29 15.64 20.83 20.14 6.10 1911 27.48 10.51 16.40 19.73 19.31 6.57 1921 29.70 10.39 15.92 18.29 18367 7.03 1931 31.20 11.65 16.80 18.00 17.14 5.21 1941 38.23 11.42 16.35 15.78 15.08 3.14 1951 44.63 9.96 15.72 13.63 12.97 3.09 1961 51.42 11.23 16.94 12.77 6.87 0.77 1971 57.42 10.92 16.01 10.94 4.45 0.44 1981 60.42 11.63 19.33 9.54 3.58 0.50 1991 65.42 10.95 13.19 7.77 2.06 0.29 2001 61.48 12.30 15.00 8.08 2.85

Million + Cities/UAs Year No. of UAs/Cities Population of million + UAs/Cities as % of India’s Population Population of Million + Cities as % of India’s Urban Population 1901 1 0.63 5.84 1911 2 1.10 10.65 1921 1.25 11.14 1931 1.22 10.18 1941 1.67 12.02 1951 5 3.25 18.81 1961 7 4.12 22.93 1971 9 5.08 25.51 1981 12 6.16 26.41 1991 23 8.37 32.54 2001 32 9.98 34.97

Largest UAs of India Year UA World Rank Population Popula- tion UA Rank/ 1950 Calcutta 10th 4.1 Mn Bombay 18th 2.9 Mn 1960 13th 5.5 Mn 1970 14th 6.9 Mn 17th 5.8 Mn Delhi 28th 3.5 Mn 1980 9th 9.0 Mn 15th 8.1 Mn Delhi 23rd 5.6 Mn 1995 5th 15.1 Mn 8th 11.9 Mn Delhi 9.9 Mn 2000 3rd 18.0 Mn 12.9 Mn Delhi 14th 11.7 Mn 2010 2nd 23.7 Mn 15.6 Mn Delhi 11th 15.2 Mn Hyderabad 25th 9.4 Mn 2015 26.2 Mn Hyderabad 24th 17.3 Mn 10.5 Mn Delhi 11th 16.9 Mn

Growth of Mumbai Metro Popn (Mn) Island City Outer City Suburbs Metropolitan Mumbai 1981 3.3 4.9 1.7 9.9 1991 3.2 6.8 3.5 13.4 2001 8.6 5.8 17.7 % Share 33.2 50.1 16.8 100 23.7 50.5 25.8 18.8 48.5 32.7 % Change 1981-1991 -3.4 36.2 108.1 35.1 1991-2001 4.8 27.2 67.7 32.3 1981-2001 1.3 42.3 71.3 44.1

Concluding Remarks - 1 Urban Popn in India experienced 11 fold increase during 1901-2001, while the total popn increased by 4 times The total number of towns/UAs increased in case of all size classes, except class VI Class III, IV and V towns accounting for 3/4th of total number of towns, account for only 1/4th of urban population. Class I towns account for 3/5th of Indian urban popn During past decade, population share of medium and small towns increased slightly while that of the large towns declined slightly Analysis of latest data on trends of migration can throw more light on this aspect as the migration to large cities/towns might be on decline

Concluding Remarks - 2 All the towns/ UAs experienced considerable increase in population during 1971-81, but recorded decline during 1981-1991 The No. of million + towns increased significantly in the recent decades, which account for about 1/10th of country’s popn and 1/3 of urban popn By 2015, India is expected to have 4 of its UAs (Mumbai, Kolkata, Delhi and Hyderabad) in the group of world’s largest UAs; Mumbai, continues as the 2nd most populous UA with a population of 26.2 million As a consequence of urbanisation, which is due to rural-urban or (semi) urban –urban migration, No. of towns/UAs with slums, No. of slums and the slum popn is increasing

Concluding Remarks - 3 The studies on quality of life in urban India indicate need to provide basic infrastructure and improve access to basic services (safe drinking water, transport, electricity etc) Need research to understand trends and patterns of different migration streams and assess their contribution for growth of different town size class Urban planning in medium and small towns needs emphasis as they are likely to grow in the coming days Studies are also needed to understand growth of slums and slum population and their quality of life

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION