2017 NWSA Annual Meeting

2016 WEATHER 2017 NWSA Annual Meeting What happened? Where do we go from here. Presented by: Gary Bennett – NWSA Meteorologist

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting 2016 FIRE YEAR: 2016 looked to be an average fire year, for the western states. Eastern Washington reported to lowest acreage burned in 5 years. California reported over 560,000 acres burned. Late season rain episodes in September and early October effectively ended the 2016 fire season.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting What’s new in Fire Weather Forecasting for this coming Fire Season. New NOAA Weather Satellite GOES-16 (R) was launched last year, in November, and is now online sending back color photos and videos. Still in experimental stages. Significant Fire Potential Graphic is not just 7 day, but there is a monthly graphic as well.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Example of some of the images GOES-16 will have in its database: Geostationary Lightning Mapper (realtime) Five (5) times faster weather forecast coverage. Better Hurricane and severe weather tracking. GOES-16 will actually track weather and fire data so we can make better/timelier forecasts of future events, especially in the 12-48 hour time period. Can track hydrological events: Flooding, Snow, impact on reservoirs, and water storage. SST and ENSO tracking and mapping.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Weather for the 2017 Fire Year

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Well we’ve all heard about it over the past few months. We rapidly changed from a ”record” El Nino event early last summer. That episode faded into a Neutral ENSO and by Fall we transitioned to a weak La Nina event, that we are still in this winter. It looks as if this latest Wintertime La Nina is weakening and return to Neutral by March.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting La Nina – What happens to the western US while being influenced by this type of a weather pattern, especially in the winter months?

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting La Nina and El Nino both are produced in the east Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. La Nina exhibits colder than average SST’s (blues) across the Pacific Ocean and along the west coast of the U.S.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Graphic on the right shows SST from Nov-Jan. You can see how the cold (blue) water is warming. La Nina is weakening rapidly. Will phase to Neutral (Feb) and remain until summer. La Nina from 9 Nov to Jan 24:

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting The southern branch of the jet stream comes out of the tropics and is aimed directly at the Pacific NW. “Pineapple Express”

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting What did this mean for last summers wildfire season? Wetter than average, especially late season. Warmer than average. Temperatures globally again broke records. Third year in a row. Pacific weather pattern remained progressive throughout the summer months.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Interesting departure from average precipitation from late October 2016 thru Feb 25th Below average over much of WA and north OR. Generally above average elsewhere, except much above parts of CA.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Average temperatures from January through February show the La Nina pattern. Colder north and warmer southern states.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Departure from average precipitation. Jan-Feb, 2017 WA and OR generally near to a little Below average precipitation. CA Above to well above average. We will see if this trend continues.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Mountain snowpack as of February 1st. Cascade Mountains WA 90-110%, OR 130-150% of avg. Areas of the windward side of the Rockies 130-150 percent of average. Northern Idaho and Western Montana are near to 50-70 percent of average. bru

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Drought Monitors and Drought Outlook for Spring

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting November Drought Monitor:

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Latest Drought Monitor:

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Drought Outlook:

We will look at the Seasonal Long Lead Outlook’s (SLLO’s). 2017 NWSA Annual Meeting So we’ve visited this past summer and winter, now lets look at what this summer 2017 has in store for us and the prospects for wildfire this season. We will look at the Seasonal Long Lead Outlook’s (SLLO’s).

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Well, no surprises here for the MAM time frame, although the La Nina pattern is losing strength. Still the warm temperature anomaly persists over the southern tier states.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting MAM precipitation outlook reflects the weakening La Nina as the above average anomaly over the west has diminished. Drier than average anomaly remains over the desert SW and southern tier states.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting The MJJ Temperature SLLO now shows most of the U.S. in the Above (A) average category. Well above average over the desert SW. EC over the Dakotas.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Typical Neutral phase precipitation SLLO with Above average anomaly over the desert SW. Influenced by monsoon type moisture. Below average over the Pacific NW.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting The JJA SLLO has erased the La Nina pattern. Above average temperature anomaly covers nearly all of the U.S. Strong Above average temperature anomaly still over the Desert SW.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting We still see a Below average precipitation anomaly over the Pac NW in the JJA SLLO. Above average precip. anomaly over the SW is a Monsoon signature. EC across the rest of the nation. Definite sign the we are returning to average summertime WX.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting The JAS Above average temperature anomaly has spread out to encompass all of the U.S. The desert SW, Nevada, southern Idaho, and Texas are well above average. Looks like a return to a “normal” summer is on tap for this year.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting We are still seeing a Below average precipitation anomaly over the Pacific NW for JAS. Above average for the Northeast. Every where else is EC.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting As we move into the late summer and early fall months of ASO we see the Above average temperature anomaly continuing to expand and get stronger the U.S.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting The Below average precipitation anomaly over the Pacific NW has slipped a bit south over the late summer and early fall months of ASO. Looks like a reflection of the temperature anomaly staying strong over this area of the west all summer.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting As we head into the winter months of 2017-18 the above average temperature anomaly remains over the entire U.S.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting NDJ precipitation anomaly shows equal chances of Above, Below, and Average.

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting In Summary: Fire Season 2017 looks, on paper, to be an average fire year. Areas to watch: Desert SW, Texas, Southern CA, and the intermountain West. Possibly the Pacific NW east of the Cascades. Food for thought: Going through the preparation for this presentation, something triggered my climate memory banks, as I looked at the data. This looks very much like fire year 2011. (i.e. 73,484 fires…8,700,000 acres burned).

2017 NWSA Annual Meeting

Any Questions or Comments? 2017 NWSA Annual Meeting Any Questions or Comments?