Lance VandenBoogart GOES-R PG User Readiness Meeting 6/3/2014 “Tales From The Testbed”: HWT-EWP Highlights.

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Presentation transcript:

Lance VandenBoogart GOES-R PG User Readiness Meeting 6/3/2014 “Tales From The Testbed”: HWT-EWP Highlights

What Is The Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT)? Not just a facility… …but an organization

HWT Experimental Warning Program (EWP) Mission: Improve prediction of severe convective weather and warning decision-making at the “warning scale” (0- 2 hours) Forecasters gain experience with new products / processes A vital component of the Research to Operations / Operations to Research (R2O/O2R) process

2014 EWP Projects Variational LAPS

Testing Across The Country

Widespread Participation Offices with operational forecasters participating in EWP (through week 3) NWS: OAX, LMK, GGW, OUN, BUF, UNR, GRR, Broadcasters: WCVB (Boston, MA), WUSA (Washington, DC), WSPA (Greenville, SC) Number of offices attending live Friday webinars May 9: 30 May 16: 31 May 23: 33 June 6: ???

Online Webinar Archive 2014 Archived Webinars: May 9: /2014-wk1/ /2014-wk1/ May 16: /2014-wk2/ /2014-wk2/ May 23: /2014-wk3/ /2014-wk3/ June 6: coming soon Also available in context:

Looking For More Information? External (public) General Information about the EWP Previous weeks’ “Tales from the Testbed” Internal (private) /2014/ /2014/ (NOAA LDAP credentials required) The EWP Blog Operations Plans Training Materials Schedules (Google Calendar) Other useful links

Backup Slides

Takeaways Products with limitations this week Products with limitations this week GOES-R Convective Initiation GOES-R Convective Initiation Had to “calibrate to” each day Had to “calibrate to” each day Many false alarms amidst cumulus field Many false alarms amidst cumulus field vLAPS vLAPS Tended to overestimate Composite Z Tended to overestimate Composite Z CAPE fields were generally accurate predictors over land CAPE fields were generally accurate predictors over land

Takeaways Almost ready for operations Almost ready for operations ProbSevere ProbSevere Trends on target Trends on target Struggles with mature cells Struggles with mature cells NearCast NearCast Predicted area of convective instability well Predicted area of convective instability well Possibly add an interpolation toggle ability to fill gaps in with NWP Possibly add an interpolation toggle ability to fill gaps in with NWP

Takeaways Get this to my office “yesterday”! Get this to my office “yesterday”! Lightning Flashes & Lightning Jump Algorithm Lightning Flashes & Lightning Jump Algorithm Increases confidence in severity of storms Increases confidence in severity of storms Provided information about updraft health Provided information about updraft health Super-Rapid Scan Operations (SRSOR) Imagery Super-Rapid Scan Operations (SRSOR) Imagery Used to observe key storm-scale features; 1-min temporal resolution made this possible Used to observe key storm-scale features; 1-min temporal resolution made this possible Simulated Satellite Imagery Simulated Satellite Imagery Comparison to reality raised or lowered confidence in using model Comparison to reality raised or lowered confidence in using model When on-track, predicted areas of storm development When on-track, predicted areas of storm development