November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 1 | John McCain January 18, 2007 Progressive Media January 13-15, likely voters in ten battleground.

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Presentation transcript:

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 1 | John McCain January 18, 2007 Progressive Media January 13-15, likely voters in ten battleground states: CO, FL, IA, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, VA, WI

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 2 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 2 | Country Ready for Change

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 3 | More than two-thirds feel country seriously off track Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 3 | Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? -51 Presidential Battleground National -41 *Note: National data from Democracy Corps poll of 1,024 likely voters nationwide conducted December 14-17, 2007.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 4 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 4 | Iraq is top reason country headed in wrong direction Now I am going to read you a list of phrases that people use to describe why our country is going in the wrong direction. After I read the list, please tell me which TWO come closest to your own views of why the country is going in the wrong direction.* *Note: This question was only asked of those who responded that the country was going in the wrong direction.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 5 | Winning war on terrorism tops why country headed in right direction Now I am going to read you a list of phrases that people use to describe why our country is going in the right direction. After I read the list, please tell me which TWO come closest to your own views of why the country is going in the right direction. *Note: This question was only asked of those who responded that the country was going in the right direction.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 6 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 6 | For many, Bush on ballot in 2008 Even though he has served two terms and is not running again, do you think of your vote for President next year as a vote for George W. Bush and his policies, as a vote against George W. Bush and his policies or isn't George W. Bush much of a factor in your vote? +26

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 7 | Bush, Republican Party and Iraq viewed unfavorably Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Net

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 8 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 8 | The Election

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 9 | Presidential Candidate Thermometers Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. Net

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 10 | Barack Obama Thermometer Rating Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. +0 Net Difference +12

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 11 | Hillary Clinton Thermometer Rating Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. -15 Net Difference -8

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 12 | John McCain Thermometer Rating Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. +1 Net Difference +7

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 13 | Rudy Giuliani Thermometer Rating Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. -12 Net Difference -27

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 14 | Mitt Romney Thermometer Rating Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. -9 Net Difference -18

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 15 | Mike Huckabee Thermometer Rating Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. -3 Net Difference -19

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 16 | I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the election in 2008, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Generic Democrat leads Presidential race by 8 points

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 17 | Now let me ask you again about your vote for President but with the candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? Initial Final McCain edges out Clinton

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 18 | Now let me ask you again about your vote for President but with the candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? Initial Final Obama’s lead on McCain stable

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 19 | +11 I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the election in 2008, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? Hillary lags among Independents

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 20 | +66 Now let me ask you again about your vote for President but with the candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were – [Combined Democrat] and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? +1 Democrats Independents Combined Democrat v. John McCain -76 Republicans

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 21 | +89 Now let me ask you again about your vote for President but with the candidate names. I know it is a long way off, but if the election for president were held today and the candidates were – Democratic candidate or Republican candidate / [Combined Democrat] and Republican John McCain, for whom would you vote? [Among Democrats only] Generic Presidential Vote Democrats losing base voters against McCain +66 Combined Democrat v. John McCain

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 22 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 22 | Attributes

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 23 | Net Hillary: strong leader, but willing to say anything to win Now, I am going to read you another list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Democrat Hillary Clinton very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Positive Attributes Negative Attributes

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 24 | Net Now, I am going to read you another list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Democrat Barack Obama very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Obama: honest, trustworthy leader to bring the right kind of change Positive Attributes Negative Attributes

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 25 | Net Now, I am going to read you another list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Republican John McCain very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. McCain seen as “stand up guy” Positive Attributes Negative Attributes

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 26 | Net Now, I am going to read you another list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Republican John McCain very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Voters open to idea that McCain is part of problem Has been in DC too long Too close to Bush Honest/Trustworthy Net Shift

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 27 | Net Now, I am going to read you another list of words and phrases which people use to describe political figures. For each word or phrase, please tell me whether it describes Republican John McCain very well, well, not too well, or not well at all. Independents buy McCain as part of problem Honest/Trustworthy Right Kind of Change Too Close To Bush Net Shift *Note: Response among independents

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 28 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 28 | Positives Messages

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 29 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 29 | Clinton championed health care reform; fiscally responsible Now, I am going to read you some reasons people give for supporting Democrat Hillary Clinton. Please tell me which ONE of these would be the top reason to support Democrat Hillary Clinton.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 30 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 30 | Obama will move past partisan bickering, gridlock Now, I am going to read you some reasons people give for supporting Democrat Barack Obama. Please tell me which ONE of these would be the top reason to support Democrat Barack Obama.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 31 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 31 | McCain lauded for straight talk and foreign policy/military experience Now I am going to read you another list, but this time a list of reasons some people give for supporting Republican John McCain. Please tell me which ONE of these would be the top reason to support Republican John McCain.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 32 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 32 | Negative Messaging Against Democrats

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 33 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 33 | Hillary supports “the mother of all tax increases” Now, I am going to read you some reasons people give for opposing Democrat Hillary Clinton. Please tell me which TWO of these would be the top reasons NOT to support Democrat Hillary Clinton.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 34 | Tax increases and flip-flops most damaging Hillary negatives Very Serious Doubts Total Doubts Clinton supports a tax plan that has been called "the mother of all tax increases" and will be the largest tax increase in American history, repealing the Bush tax cuts and adding trillions in new taxes. She says she will only tax the rich, but you can be sure her definition of “rich” is every working American Clinton has pandered to the extreme anti-war radicals by voting to cut off funds to the troops in Iraq and supporting liberals' attack on General Petraeus. She opposes laws to let us listen-in on terrorists' phone calls and she would handcuff interrogators who are trying to save American lives 3564 Clinton will say and do anything to win. She supported the war in Iraq, now she wants to cut all funding for the troops she helped send to war. She supported drivers licenses for illegal immigrants, then flip-flopped when the politics changed. One of her top fundraisers has been indicted for fraud and she is being sued by a former staffer for massive campaign finance violations Clinton represents the Washington establishment and can’t bring the kind of change we need. She makes decisions based on polls, not principles and is beholden to the special interests in Washington. If elected, we will have the same kind of polarized politics that we have had for the past fifteen years Let me read you a series of statements about Democrat Hillary Clinton. For each statement, please tell me whether this description, if accurate, raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about Democrat Hillary Clinton.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 35 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 35 | Obama supports 2 trillion dollars in new taxes Now, I am going to read you some reasons people give for opposing Democrat Barack Obama Please tell me which TWO of these would be the top reasons NOT to support Democrat Barack Obama.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 36 | Tax increases and liberal positions most damaging Obama negatives Very Serious Doubts Total Serious Doubts Obama supports a tax plan that has been called "the mother of all tax increases" and will be the largest tax increase in American history. He wants to repeal the Bush tax cuts and raise the Social Security tax by over a trillion dollars. His tax increases will damage the economy and hurt the pocketbooks of average Americans Obama is one of the 10 "Most Liberal Senators" in Congress. He supports gay adoptions and driver's licenses for illegal immigrants, but he voted against allowing people to use handguns to defend against intruders in their homes. He even opposed medical care for aborted fetuses who survived the abortion procedure Obama has said that he would personally negotiate with the leaders of terrorist nations yet he also wants to attack Pakistan, a long time ally of the United States. No wonder newspapers across the country have said he has "yet to prove he has as much substance as style." 2557 Obama will say or do anything to get elected. He talks about reigning in lobbyists, but his campaign chairman lobbies for the big drug companies. And he supported funding for the war in Iraq until liberal interest groups pressured him, then flip-flopped and voted against a bill that provided billions in needed funding for our troops in the field Obama is not patriotic enough to be our president. His father was a Muslim and he grew up in the world's most populated Islamic country. At a recent public event he didn't cover his heart during the national anthem and he has also recently stopped wearing an American flag pin Let me read you a series of statements about Democrat Barack Obama. For each statement, please tell me whether this description, if accurate, raises very serious doubts, serious doubts, minor doubts or no real doubts in your own mind about Democrat Barack Obama.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 37 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 37 | Messaging to Expose John McCain

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 38 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 38 | McCain wants to send more troops to Iraq and keep them for 100 years Now, I am going to read you some reasons people give for opposing Republican John McCain Please tell me which TWO of these would be the top reasons NOT to support Republican John McCain.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 39 | Tying McCain to Bush on war, economy most successful Very Serious Doubts Total Serious Doubts Like Dick Cheney, McCain repeatedly insisted that the war in Iraq would be "easy" and that we would be greeted as liberators. He voted in support of Bush's Iraq policy 100 percent the time and his current position is "stay the course, no matter what." He wants to send more troops to Iraq and will leave it up to the Iraqis how long we stay in Iraq, even if that means our troops are there for 100 years or more McCain is out of touch with middle class Americans on important economic issues, just like George Bush. McCain opposes increasing the minimum wage, wants to privatize Social Security and extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, and he even backed Bush's decision to veto a bill to extend health insurance to 10 million kids When it comes to special interests, McCain is a hypocrite. A non-partisan study found McCain has 32 lobbyists among his chief fundraisers, more than any other presidential contender. He says he's never done favors for anyone, but he intervened with federal regulators to help a corporate pal buy a local TV station after taking four trips on his corporate jets and twenty thousand dollars in contributions McCain will do or say anything to get elected. In the last election he called ultra-right-wing preachers "evil agents of intolerance" and the Swift Boat group "dishonest and dishonorable," but in his efforts to pander to the far-right, he now courts both groups. McCain has even changed his positions on abortion and immigration in his attempt to appease the far right McCain is just another member of the corrupt Washington political establishment. He has been a Washington insider and politician for 26 years and if elected, McCain would be 72 years-old, the oldest person ever elected president. John McCain is a lifelong politician and cannot bring the change this country needs. 2144

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 40 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 40 | McCain represents Bush’s failed policies on Iraq, the economy Now I am going to read you a list of conclusions some people have drawn about Republican John McCain, please tell me based on what you’ve just heard, which ONE causes you the most concern about Republican John McCain.

November 18, 2016 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Page 41 | DC 10 G Street NE, Suite 400 Washington, DC Ph: Fax: California 50 California Street, Suite 1500 San Francisco, CA Ph: Fax: London, UK 405 Carrington House, 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU Ph: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)