WTO Doha Round: Status and Issues Stephen Censky, American Soybean Association International Oilseed Producers Dialogue XI Meeting Berlin, Germany June 2008

Recent Developments New Agriculture and Non-Agriculture Market Access (NAMA) texts circulated in mid-May. Meetings of the two groups held week of May 26. Very little progress to show and time is running out. Numerous Ag issues open, but main problems are:  Market access in advanced developing countries  Tropical products and preference erosion (developing country issues) NAMA talks are in even worse shape. Positions of developing and developed countries polarized. Talks in “Rules” and “Services” also in trouble.

Current Agriculture Text Domestic Supports  Big cuts in trade-distorting domestic supports (concession mainly by EU and U.S.)  Total Trade Distorting Support: EU cut 75-85%; U.S %  Amber Box: EU cut 70%; U.S. 60% EU has already implemented reforms to allow deep amber box cuts. U.S. limit goes from $19.1 bil to $7.6 bil.  Other: Blue Box capped at 2.5% of value of production, de minimus caps cut 50% Domestic Supports  Big cuts in trade-distorting domestic supports (concession mainly by EU and U.S.)  Total Trade Distorting Support: EU cut 75-85%; U.S %  Amber Box: EU cut 70%; U.S. 60% EU has already implemented reforms to allow deep amber box cuts. U.S. limit goes from $19.1 bil to $7.6 bil.  Other: Blue Box capped at 2.5% of value of production, de minimus caps cut 50%

Current Agriculture Text Market Access  Tariff Cuts: Developed Countries: Minimum average cut of 54% Developing Countries: Maximum average cut of 36%  Extensive loopholes that negate market access gains & allow countries to avoid taking full (or even partial) tariff cut Sensitive Products – Developed Countries can designate [4-8]% of tariff lines as sensitive, Developing Countries can designate [ ]% Special Products – Developing Countries can designate [8- 20]% of tariff lines as Special Products Safeguard Mechanisms – Volume and Price-based safeguards allow tariffs to snap back to high levels Market Access  Tariff Cuts: Developed Countries: Minimum average cut of 54% Developing Countries: Maximum average cut of 36%  Extensive loopholes that negate market access gains & allow countries to avoid taking full (or even partial) tariff cut Sensitive Products – Developed Countries can designate [4-8]% of tariff lines as sensitive, Developing Countries can designate [ ]% Special Products – Developing Countries can designate [8- 20]% of tariff lines as Special Products Safeguard Mechanisms – Volume and Price-based safeguards allow tariffs to snap back to high levels

Current Agriculture Text Export Competition  Export subsidies eliminated by 2013 for Developed Countries Concession mainly by EU  Export credits and food aid greatly restricted Concessions mainly by U.S.  State trading enterprises restricted (elimination of monopoly powers still in brackets); concessions by: Canada (wheat) Australia (wheat) New Zealand (dairy) Export Competition  Export subsidies eliminated by 2013 for Developed Countries Concession mainly by EU  Export credits and food aid greatly restricted Concessions mainly by U.S.  State trading enterprises restricted (elimination of monopoly powers still in brackets); concessions by: Canada (wheat) Australia (wheat) New Zealand (dairy)

Timetable So-called “horizontal process” (Agriculture and NAMA considered together) now put off to late-June at the earliest. Trade ministers meeting put off to late June, or, more likely, late July. Goal remains: Modalities agreement in July; final agreement and signing ceremony by end of year Fall-back seems to be modalities agreement by end of year and leave the final negotiations to next administration.

Chances of Success Reasons it might happen:  In March we thought -- Seeing real (although slow) progress on agriculture Detailed negotiating text was in place, and a manageable list of issues We had capable negotiators & ag chairman Saw a deadline, and felt a new sense of urgency

Chances of Success Reasons it might happen  Now it looks more like: Little progress lately on agriculture Detailed negotiating text in place, but list of issues hasn’t shrunk Capable negotiators & chairman, but some countries appear not to want agreement (India, in particular) New July deadline and even greater sense of urgency – that may be the only hope

Chances of Success Reasons it might not happen:  Loopholes for developing countries Special products Special safeguard mechanism  Long list of loose ends  Problems outside of agriculture Non-Ag Market Access (NAMA) - little progress and big differences between developed and developing Rules & Services – Little progress and big differences  Just running out of time

Chances of Success The attitude in March: Don’t bet the farm on it... but pay close attention Attitude today: Odds are no agreement… but still don’t bet the farm (but maybe your wife’s car)