by Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Board Chair, Advanced TRansit Association Presented at Podcar City 9 Silicon Valley, CA November 6, 2015 Driverless Transit on Guideways and Roads

Levels of Automation Exclusivity of the Way Speed Slow moderate high Exclusive Mixed Restricted Scope of Vehicle Automation

Levels of Automation Exclusivity of the Way Speed Slow moderate high Exclusive Mixed Restricted Scope of Vehicle Automation aTaxi

The Business Case

Terrible News! Claims are going through the roof!

2011 Nationwide Bus Casualty and Liability Expense Source FTA NTD Casualty and Liability Amount Vehicle- related $483,076,010. Total Buses 59,871 Sub-Total Casualty and Liability Amount Per Bus $8,069/Bus/Year

Key Business Model Cost of Active Collision Avoidance < Present Value {Expected Liability Savings over life of bus}

Liability Savings pay Cash for the Technology, and… “half” of the following come for FREE!

Think About… +

+ + Enormous Extended Reach

Think About… + Inexpensive Guideway + Inexpensive vehicles Great way to get started

Think About… + + Enormous Extended Reach

By walking to a station/aTaxiStand – At what point does a walk distance make the aTaxi trip unattractive relative to one’s personal car? – ¼ mile ( 5 minute) max Like using an Elevator! “NJ Transit aTaxis” Service Model Elevator

By walking to a station/aTaxiStand – A what point does a walk distance makes the aTaxi trip unattractive relative to one’s personal car? – ¼ mile ( 5 minute) max By using the rail system for some trips – Trips with at least one trip-end within a short walk to a train station. – Trips to/from NYC or PHL Spatial Aggregation

By walking to a station/aTaxiStand – A what point does a walk distance makes the aTaxi trip unattractive relative to one’s personal car? – ¼ mile ( 5 minute) max By using the rail system for some trips – Trips with at least one trip end within a short walk to a train station. – Trips to/from NYC or PHL By sharing rides with others that are basically going in my direction – No trip has more than 20% circuity added to its trip time. Spatial Aggregation

Pixelation of New Jersey NJ State Grid Zoomed-In Grid of Mercer

Stands are conveniently located about ½ mile appart Stands are conveniently located about ½ mile appart xPixel = floor{ * (longitude )} yPixel = floor{138.2 * (latitude – 38.9)) xPixel = floor{ * (longitude )} yPixel = floor{138.2 * (latitude – 38.9))

O O D P1P1 An aTaxiTrip

P1P1 O Common Destination (CD) CD=1p: Pixel -> Pixel (p->p) Ride-sharing Common Destination (CD) CD=1p: Pixel -> Pixel (p->p) Ride-sharing TripMiles = L TripMiles = 2L TripMiles = 3L

P1P1 O PersonMiles = 3L aTaxiMiles = L AVO = PersonMiles/aTaxiMiles = 3 PersonMiles = 3L aTaxiMiles = L AVO = PersonMiles/aTaxiMiles = 3

NJ Transit Train Station “Consumer-shed” NJ Transit Train Station “Consumer-shed”

D a PersonTrip from NYC (or PHL or any Pixel containing a Train station) a PersonTrip from NYC (or PHL or any Pixel containing a Train station) NYC O Princeton Train Station NJ Transit Rail Line to NYC, next Departure aTaxiTrip An aTaxiTrip {oYpixel, oXpixel, TrainArrivalTime, dYpixel, dXpixel, Exected: dTime} An aTaxiTrip {oYpixel, oXpixel, TrainArrivalTime, dYpixel, dXpixel, Exected: dTime}

P2P2 P1P1 O CD= 2p: Pixel ->2Pixels Ride-sharing

P1P1 P3P3 O P2P2 CD= 3p: Pixel ->3Pixels Ride-sharing; P 2 New

Elevator Analogy of an aTaxi Stand Temporal Aggregation Departure Delay: DD = 300 Seconds Elevator Analogy of an aTaxi Stand Temporal Aggregation Departure Delay: DD = 300 Seconds Kornhauser Obrien Johnson 40 sec Henderson Lin 1:34 Popkin 3:47

Samuels 4:50 Henderson Lin Young 0:34 Popkin 2:17 Elevator Analogy of an aTaxi Stand 60 seconds later Elevator Analogy of an aTaxi Stand 60 seconds later Christie Maddow 4:12

“Last Mile” Impact on NJ Transit Rail (Today: 281,576, +537% ! )

Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds) Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds)

Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds) Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds)

Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds) Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds)

Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds) Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds)

Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds) Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds)

Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds) Typical Daily NJ-wide AVO CD: Common Destinations; DD: Departure Delay (in Seconds)

Mercer County Pixel {200,103} Princeton ItemValue Activity Locations 57 Employment1,336 Population1,062 School Enrollment 0 Work School Home (Block Centroid ) Pixel Centroid

2-pax aTaxis 15-pax aTaxis 6-pax aTaxis

What about the whole country?

Public Schools in the US

Nation-Wide Businesses RankState Sales VolumeNo. Businesses 1California$1,8891,579,342 2Texas$2,115999,331 3Florida$1,702895,586 4New York$1,822837,773 5Pennsylvania$2,134550,678 9New Jersey$1,919428,596 45Washington DC$1,31749,488 47Rhode Island$1,81446,503 48North Dakota$1,97844,518 49Delaware$2,10841,296 50Vermont$1,55439,230 51Wyoming$1,67935, Million Businesses {Name, address, Sales, #employees}

US_PersonTrip file will have.. 308,745,538 records – One for each person in US_Resident file Specifying 1,009,332,835 Daily Person Trips – Each characterized by a precise {oLat, oLon, oTime, dLat, dLon, Est_dTime} Will Perform Nationwide aTaxi AVO analysis Results ????

Thank You Discussion!

Manhattan (New York County) Simulated population of 1,585,873 residents 8,085,055 trips originatewithin Manhattan 52,759,156 person-trip miles for Manhattan oTrips 3,010,666 unique travelers (1,424,793 non- resident travelers – Commuters) Mean Trip Length = 6.53 miles; Median Trip Length = 3.31 miles Interesting differences between commuter and resident population traveling through Manhattan

Trip Files are Available If You want to Play

Thank You Discussion!