INTRODUCTION TO EDUCATION POLICY SIMULATION AND RESOURCE PROJECTIONS 30 November 2011 Technical Meeting on Costing Policy Options to Close Social Protection Gaps in Thailand and Way Forward

Education as a system 2 Modes of delivery FormalNon-formalInformal AccessQuality EquityManagement Levels Early ChildhoodPrimary Secondary Tertiary Teacher Education Multi-level/programmatic components or sub-sectors TVET Child-friendly schools HIV/AIDs

Types of simulation models  The two main types of models:  Financial/budgetary models – Projecting based on a set budget  Demographic models – Projecting based on demographic trends and enrolment objectives  Recommendation for Thailand to implement social protection floor: Demographic model, but concerned with both:  education outcomes AND  financial affordability  UNESCO’s tools:  Education Policy and Strategy Simulation model (EPSSim)  ANalysis and PROjection Model (ANPRO)  Both can easily include various items such as demand-side financing and be adapted per country context 3

Simplified demographic simulation model 4 Population Yearly recurrent & capital cost projections Intake, registration & flow rates Enrolments at each education level Teachers & other staff Buildings & equipment Instructional materials

Use of simulation modeling in education planning  Examples:  Sector Planning and/or Education For All – Fast Track Initiative (EFA-FTI)  Decentralised education system support  Sector policy reforms and strategies  Research 5

Sector planning and/or EFA-FTI 6 COUNTRYNATURE OF PROJECTPROJECT AlgeriaSchool flow management Policy dialogue between ministries and development of compulsory, higher and technical/vocational education Moldova Development of Early Childhood Education (ECE) with FTI CF Capacity building in policy dialogue – planning and design of resource framework in favour of ECE development Mongolia Development of Master Plan Sector Wide master planning and SWAp for Government-led donor coordination VietnamApplication for FTI Review of EFA action plan and recosting of sector plan for FTI application

Decentralised education system support 7 COUNTRYNATURE OF PROJECTPROJECT Argentina Policy resource frameworks in line with national goals Policy options for increased resource allocations for disadvantaged – capacity building Nigeria State education plans in conformity with national policy Education sector analysis – 10 year plans in 6 states – capacity building Mainstreaming child-friendly schools (CFS) Mozambique Decentralized plans at provincial and district levels Capacity building – Local actions planned to implement the national plan + Preparation of the national plan (reform measures) Sudan Capacity building in planning, monitoring and evaluation (M&E) at federal and state levels Capacity building in statistics, policy dialogue, planning, and M&E – Coordination of Ministries

Sector policy reforms and strategies 8 COUNTRYNATURE OF PROJECTPROJECT Croatia and Serbia Alignment of existing policies with EU standards Review of the education policies – capacity building in policy elaboration and programme M&E Ecuador Development of pro-poor policy within the Sector Plan Design of policy options to induce minorities and to provide adequate support Niger Non-formal education (NFE) policy formulation Development of policy and strategy for NFE

Research 9  GMR 2010: Reaching and Teaching the Most Marginalised  Estimating the funding gaps as well as external financing necessary to achieve EFA goals at country level – 3 case studies (Addressing Marginalisation in Education)  Identifying country specific policy options and gauging the cost implications of addressing marginalisation in a sector-wide perspective

Reaching the Unreached  Demand-side financing  Stipend/Scholarships Pro-poor (Lao PDR, Mongolia) Targeted groups (Bangladesh, India) Savings account (Bangladesh and Uganda)  Targeted financing (China, Mexico)  School feeding programmes (Bangladesh)  Conditional cash transfers (Latin America)  Voucher programmes (Colombia, USA, New Zealand)  Community financing (Pakistan, Myanmar, E Salvador)

Key inputs when building a model  The models are highly adaptable, but to be useful to education planning, they require:  quality data – accuracy, timeliness, relevance  detailed information on policy objectives – quantitative targets and timeframes  information on fiscal, macroeconomic and demographic factors which affect education planning  understanding of the scope of the model – coverage of different levels of education and multi-level expenditures, impact of the administrative arrangements between central/local governments

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