Revised EPA Ozone Standard – Effects in the West May 15, 2008

EPA - all Ozone Monitoring Sites during ozone monitoring sites with complete data, ozone monitoring sites with incomplete data, counties with complete data,

EPA map of Counties with Monitors Violating the Primary and Secondary 8-hour Ozone Standard of ppm (Based on Air Quality Data) ■ 63 Counties in Maintenance Areas ■ 208 Counties in 2004 Designated Nonattainment Areas ■ 74 Counties outside of 2004 Designated Nonattainment Areas Notes: of 643 monitored counties with complete data violate the proposed primary 8-hour ozone standard of 0.075ppm. 2.Data was retrieved from the AQS system February 4, 2008

New Ozone NAAQS States in the WESTAR Region Counties with at least one ozone monitor Counties exceeding NAAQS Counties > and < Counties with a NPS ozone monitor NPS monitors exceeding NAAQS NPS monitors > and < 0.075

New Ozone Standard: EPA–reported available monitoring data in the West StateCounties with MonitorsCounties violating new Ozone standard AK1 of 270 AZ7 of 154 CA48 of 5831 CO11 of 644 HI1 of 50 ID2 of 441 MT1 of 560 NV4 of 171 NM6 of 330 ND7 of 530 OR6 of 360 SD2 of 660 UT6 of 295 WA7 of 390 WY2 of 230 State Totals110 of TribesNo data reported

New Ozone Standard: 2006 Population Data in the West StateCounties assumed not to have monitors by EPA Counties with monitors included by EPA Counties with monitors violating new Ozone standard included by EPA AK664,2095,8440 AZ688,3005,478,0185,037,753 CA324,90236,132,64730,776,394 CO998,8023,754,5751,564,669 HI375,635909,8630 ID934,128532,337359,035 MT859,31885,3140 NV257,1232,238,4061,777,539 NM796,2401,158,3590 ND481,411154,4860 OR1,749,6661,951,0920 SD615,738166,1810 UT377,8572,172,2062,059,279 WA2,620,5563,775,2420 WY456,78258,2220 State Totals12,200,66758,572,79241,574,669

Counties without Ozone Monitors in 2006 ( th highest 8-hour averages at non-urban sites are presented) ■ Anchorage ■ Honolulu

Ozone Data from Non-Urban Monitors ( ) (Violations of the new standard are in orange) A violation of the new ozone standard occurs when the 3-year average of the 4 th highest daily maximum 8-hour average exceeds 75ppb.

Number of Ozone Violations at Non-Urban Monitors from (Based on the new standard) A violation of the new ozone standard occurs when the 3-year average of the 4 th highest daily maximum 8-hour average exceeds 75ppb.

Number of Ozone Exceedances at Non-Urban Monitors (Based on the new standard) An exceedance of the new ozone standard occurs when an 8-hour average ozone concentration exceeds 75 ppb.

EPA modeling of counties predicted to violate new Ozone standard by 2020 (does not reflect accurate/representative emissions projections in the West)

WRAP 2018 regional modeling - areas predicted to exceed new Ozone standard (1 st highest 8-hour average by grid cell)

WRAP 2018 regional modeling - areas predicted to exceed new Ozone standard (2 nd highest 8-hour average by grid cell)

WRAP 2018 regional modeling - areas predicted to exceed new Ozone standard (3rd highest 8-hour average by grid cell)

WRAP 2018 regional modeling - areas predicted to violate new Ozone standard (4th highest 8-hour average by grid cell [closest to compliance form of Ozone NAAQS] + seasonality)

What are (some of) the sources and control issues in the West related to the new Ozone standard? Urban and rural reactivity Transport and formation Public lands with large biogenic emissions, poorly characterized for effects of drought and climate variation Federal and state mobile fuel and tailpipe controls in place by ~2015 Point sources (dominated by EGUs for SOx and NOx) –BART by ~2015 –Less coal-fired electricity supply due to climate change? –17 million acres of public lands leased in last 5 years for O&G exploration and production Others?

Fires and Ozone (urban contributor to urban impacts, direct formation from fire event(s), precursor transport?) Wildfire Prescribed Fire Residential Wood Burning Agricultural Fire

2006 Oil and Gas Production EASTERN UTAH BLM proposed leasing for oil shale development BLM proposed leasing for tar sands development “Indian Country” – Regulatory authority controlled by the Tribes and EPA Oil Shale Leasing Tar Sands Leasing “Indian Country”