1 Hans von Storch Geesthacht, Hamburg, 青岛 23 May 2016, Baltic Earth Conference, Nida Conceptual challenges of climate servicing

2 Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8 Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350 A challenge: Different perceptions among scientists and the public  

3 Bray, 2011, pers. comm. How strongly do you employ the following sources of information, for deciding about issues related to climate adaptation? Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions. Another challenge: Stakeholder do hardly interlink directly with climate scientists

4 Climate Change: Constructions Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. One construction is scientific, i.e., an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories. The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media. Climate science is in a post-normal phase (where interest-led utility is a significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity) von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Science Pol. 12,

5 Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful? Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“ Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided Storms Temperature Lund and Stockholm

6 The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of „knowledge speaks to power“. The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated. Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”. The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the „explanation market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition. Non-sustainable claims-making by climate change (stealth) advocates to the public has lead to fatigue. Overselling goes with loss of “capital” of science, namely public trust. Knowledge market

7 An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. Provision of stakeholders with relevant knowledge, information and data about regional climate change, its perspectives and probable causes Regional climate service

Regional climate service comprises … 1.Building a dialogue with public and deciders 2.Dealing with the issues of - present change (consistency with scenarios) - perspectives (projections vs. predictions) - reality of culturally constructed knowledge about climate, climate change and climate impact - confusion because of differently used terminology - discrimination between legitimate scientific knowledge and politically motivated knowledge claims - post-normal conditioning of climate research 3.Provision of - robust (homogeneous) data - robust knowledge about recent, ongoing and possible future climate change. von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1 (2), 78

9 Determining social reality: the Hamburg survey since 2008 Every spring since 2008, the survey the company FORSA is tasked to telephone-survey about 500 people in Hamburg about their opinions about climate and climate change.  Climate change is considered a relevant issue – when directly asked if so. Otherwise it is not a topic among the 10 most significant issues.  Attention and concern varies, without systematic changes.  Storm surges are considered the most important risks in Hamburg. Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8

10 The IPCC provides the following operational definitions : “A projection is a potential future evolution …” and “A climate prediction or climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the actual evolution of the climate in the future …” But in practice these terms are mixed up. Bray and von Storch (2009) find that about 29% of climate scientists call “most probable developments” projections, while about 20% “possible developments” are labeled “predictions”. Determining social reality: the confusion about „Projections and predictions“ Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2009: 'Prediction' or 'Projection'? The nomenclature of climate science. Sci. Comm. 30,

11 Observed and projected temperature trends ( ) The observed trends are beyond the range of natural variability. In DJA and MAM the change may be explained with GHG alone; in JJA and SON other causes are also needed. Observed CRU, EOBS ( ) Consistency of recent regional change: Baltic Sea Region Projected GS signal, A1B scenario 10 simulations (ENSEMBLES) Red bars – natural variability – for detection of a non-natural cause Black bar – uncertainty of scenarios – for consistency of recent trend with cause described in scenarios Work with A. Barkhordarian

12 Difference betwenn peak heights of storm surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg Main cause for recently elevated storm surges in Hamburg is the modification of the river Elbe – (coastal defense and shipping channel deepening) and less so because of changing storms or sea level. Consistency of recent local change: Storm surges in Hamburg von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44

13 Assessments of knowledge about regional climate change - for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change - consensus of what is scientifically documented - documentation of contested issues. for + Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008, -- BACC 2 done in Hamburg region (#1 published November 2010, #2 in about 2017) + North Sea NOSCCA (in final phase) Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U.,

14 Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate change“. One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of observations and interpretation by theories. The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed by the public media. Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, with a tendency of politicizing science, and scientizing politics. Cultural science need to support climate science to deal with this challenge. The utility of scientific assertions in the political arena compete with their accuracy. Take home: knowledge about climate

15 Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the establishment of a dialogue with the public and stakeholders – recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue. Climate service must take into account competing alternative knowledge claims. Climate Service should adhere to the principle of sustainability – building trust by avoiding overselling and being explicit in spelling out contested issues. Climate Service is more than providing data to mostly anonymous clients; direct interaction (“co-production”) is in many cases needed. Regional climate service as mechanism for interacting with public and stakeholders