ALACHUA COUNTY ENERGY CONSERVATION STRATEGIES COMMISSION PRESENTATION TO THE CVPC APRIL 17, 2008

Alachua County Commission  “Board of County Commissioners of Alachua County wishes to do its part to reduce or mitigate the effects of Global Climate Change and promote the long-term economic security of its citizens through the implementation of policies that enhance energy efficiency…”  Created Energy Conservation Strategies Commission (Resolution 07-18,March 27, 2007)  Appointed ECSC members (May 22, 2007)

ECSC Membership  Twelve energy conservation experts “Possess demonstrated expertise and/or advanced training in the areas of energy demand side management, LEED or Green Building Code standards, renewable energy technologies, or a related field.”  One representative of the University of Florida  One former elected Gainesville City Commissioner  One former elected Alachua County Commissioner  One alternate position

ECSC Membership Energy Conservation experts  Dwight Adams, Ph.D.  Ed Brown  Fred Depenbrock  Christopher Fillie  Ken Fonorow  Levin Gaston  Pattie Glenn  Harry Kegelmann  Tom Lane  Ruth Steiner  Eduardo Vargas  One Vacancy

ECSC Membership University of Florida Representative  Vacancy Former elected Gainesville City Commissioner  Warren Nielsen Former elected Alachua County Commissioner  Penny Wheat Alternate Member  Bill Shepherd

Energy Conservation Strategies Commission MISSION  “To draft a comprehensive report on energy use, its relationship to climate change and local socio- economic impacts, including actions that can be implemented by the Board of County Commissioners and the community at large.”  Studying socioeconomic impacts of increased energy costs for transportation & buildings. ECSC final report due August, 2008

Community Challenges  Escalating energy costs  Climate change: global and local Variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time. These changes can be caused by processes internal to the Earth, external forces (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity) and, more recently, human activities.  Peak Oil production “Peak Oil” means not 'running out of oil', but 'running out of cheap oil'. For societies leveraged on ever increasing amounts of cheap oil, the consequences may be dire.” Energy Bulletin:

ECSC Subcommittees  Land Use & Transportation  Locally-applicable Alternative Energy Options  Residential Buildings (inc. Low-Income Housing & Rental Properties)  Waste & Energy Implications

Escalating energy costs  Cost of oil (gasoline) Oct 2001: $19.13/barrel $1.44/gallon gas Oct 2007: $73.65/barrel $2.84/gallon gas  Monthly Cost of Food for a Family of 4 Oct 2001: $612 Oct 2007: $750  Average residential retail price of electricity 2001: 8.63 cents/kWh 2007: cents/kWh 97% 23%

Energy & Transportation  US General Accountability Office Report GAO : released February, 2007 Crude Oil: Uncertainty about future oil supply makes it important to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and decline in oil production Source:

United States Oil Imports This chart depicts the sources of American oil imports. While the United States gets about 45% of its oil from the Middle East and North Africa, these regions hold over two thirds of the oil reserves worldwide.” Driving the Future of Energy Security ov/energy/graphs/o ilimport.html

US Oil Production and Consumption Overview Million Barrels per Day Energy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Government US Consumption MB/Day US Production Net Imports

US General Accountability Office Study  U.S. economy depends heavily on oil, particularly in the transportation sector. World oil production has been running at near capacity to meet demand, pushing prices upward.  How long can world oil supply expand before reaching a maximum level of production -a peak- from which it can only decline?  Study examined when oil production could ‘peak’.

US General Accountability Office Study  Assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production; and  Reviewed studies, convened expert panel, and consulted agency officials. Examined federal agency efforts that could reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequence.

US General Accountability Office Report - Key Findings  Peak oil is real.  A decline in oil production, both conventional and unconventional, will occur sometime between now (February 2007) and  No one is sure when it will occur, because there is a wide variance in the data and methodology used by various research entities.

US General Accountability Office Report - Key Findings  Without consistent government policy that acknowledges its (peak oil & decline) reality and plans for its eventuality, the United States, perhaps more than any other nation, will be the most seriously harmed economically. In commenting on a draft of the report, the Departments of Energy and the Interior generally agreed with the report and recommendations.

US General Accountability Office Recommendation “To better prepare for a peak in oil production, GAO recommends that the Secretary of Energy work with other agencies to establish a strategy to coordinate and prioritize federal agency efforts to reduce uncertainty about the likely timing of a peak and to advise Congress on how best to mitigate consequences.”

US General Accountability Office Selected Findings  “The prospect of a peak in oil production presents problems of global proportion whose consequences will depend critically on our preparedness.”  “The consequences would be most dire if a peak occurred soon, without warning, and were followed by a sharp decline in oil production because alternative energy sources, particularly for transportation, are not yet available in large quantities.”

US General Accountability Office Selected Findings  “Such a peak would require sharp reductions in oil consumption, and the competition for increasingly scarce energy would drive up prices, possibly to unprecedented levels, causing severe economic damage.”  The United States, as the largest consumer of oil and one of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be especially vulnerable among the industrialized nations of the world. (p.38)

US General Accountability Office Selected Findings  The decline would be neither temporary nor reversible: the effects would continue until alternative fuel technologies to displace oil became available in sufficient quantities at comparable costs.  Oil production could decline even more each year following a peak. The amount of alternative fuels to replace oil would have to increase year by year. (p.33-4).

US General Accountability Office Selected Findings  “Key alternative [fuels] currently supply the equivalent of only about 1 percent of U.S. consumption of petroleum products.”  “USDOE projects that even under optimistic scenarios, by 2015 these alternative fuels could displace only the equivalent of 4 percent of projected U.S. annual consumption.”

US General Accountability Office Selected Findings  Federal agencies currently have no coordinated or well-defined strategy either to reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or to mitigate its consequences.  This lack of a strategy makes it difficult to gauge the appropriate level of effort or resources to commit to alternatives to oil and puts the nation unnecessarily at risk. (p.39)

ECSC Recommendation to MTPO February 14, 2008 That the MTPO: “Direct MTPO staff to include in the consultant Scope of Services (for 2035 & future Transportation Plan updates) a requirement that peak oil production and decline variables be reviewed and tested so as to: (1), determine potential future transportation and land use scenarios necessary to mitigate local effects of peak oil production and decline; and (2), recommend alternatives to accomplish transportation and land use mitigation strategies.”

Community Opportunities Create an energy self-sufficient and resilient community  Implement a community weatherization & energy efficiency upgrade program.  Develop local economy based on low-energy consumption.  Develop multi-mode, sustainable mobility infra- structure, with focus on public transportation.

Community Opportunities Create an energy self-sufficient and resilient community  Maximize local food production.  Maximize local, non-fossil fuel based energy production; create community employment opportunities & grow new local businesses (“relocalization”).

Contact the ECSC   Phone:  Address: ECSC, 201 SE 2 nd St., Suite 201, Gainesville, FL  ECSC meetings: 1st and 3rd Mondays of the month at 5:30 PM - County Administration Building, Second Floor, Grace Knight Conference Room.  ECSC subcommittee meetings: Weekly on Tuesday & Wednesday. (call for details)

Resources  Energy Bulletin  Energy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Government  CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production. United States Government Accountability Office, February

Resources  The New York Times Magazine: August 21,2005 The Breaking Point by Peter Maass &magtype=1  National Geographic: The End of Cheap Oil by Tim Appenzeller ure5/fulltext.html