The Problem of Political Choice Summary I. Why political ignorance matters. II. The extent of ignorance. III. The rationality of ignorance. IV. Shortcomings.

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Presentation transcript:

The Problem of Political Choice

Summary I. Why political ignorance matters. II. The extent of ignorance. III. The rationality of ignorance. IV. Shortcomings of information shortcuts. V. Foot voting vs. ballot box voting

Why Political Ignorance Matters

The Extent of Political Ignorance Chapter 1 The Extent of Political Ignorance Chapter 1 I. Ignorance about issues II. Ignorance about the structure of government III. The stability of ignorance over time IV. Ignorance around the world

“I love the poorly educated.”

Ignorance and Rationality Ignorance and Rationality Chapter 3 I. Rational ignorance. II. Rational irrationality.

Sports Fans

Political Fans

Shortcomings of Shortcuts Chapter 4 I. Types of shortcuts. A. Retrospective voting. B. Opinion leaders. C. Knowledge from everyday life. II. Problems with shortcuts. A. Require preexisting knowledge to use. B. Don’t account for irrationality.

Retrospective Voting

Voting With Your Feet

Foot Voting vs. Ballot Box Voting I. Informational advantages of foot voting. A. Less rational ignorance. B. Less rational irrationality. II. Implications. A. Political decentralization. B. Increasing the role of the private sector. C. Judicial review.

Retrieverocracy

The Sports Fan

Possible Strategies for Increasing Political Knowledge Chapter 7 I. Education II. Media reform III. Paying voters to learn

The Miracle of Aggregation

Political Ignorance and the 2010 Election Question (date of survey) % Correct Answer % Wrong Answer % Admit Don’t Know Know that Republicans won control of the House of Representatives, but not Senate in 2010 election (Nov , 2010) Know Obama stimulus bill included at least “some” tax cuts (Nov. 6-15, 2010) Know that defense is the largest category of spending in federal budget (Nov , 2010) Know Harry Reid is Majority Leader of Senate (Jan , 2010) Know that John Boehner will be the new Speaker of the House of Representatives (Nov , 2010) Know TARP bailout bill enacted under Bush rather than Obama (July 1-5, 2010) Know that economy grew during 2010 (October 24-26, 2010) Know John Roberts is Chief Justice of Supreme Court (July 1-5, 2010)

The Rule of Experts

Overview of the Book I. The extent of Ignorance (chs. 2-3). II. The rationality of ignorance (ch. 4). IV. Shortcomings of information (ch. 5). V. Institutional Implications (chs. 6-7). 1. Decentralization. 2. Limited government. 3. Judicial review. VI. Proposals for increasing political knowledge (ch. 8).

Democracy and Political Ignorance by Ilya Somin George Mason University School of Law Stanford University Press, forthcoming fall 2013