The COMESEP Space Weather Alert System Luciano Rodriguez on behalf of the COMESEP Consortium (European Commission FP7 Project )

The COMESEP project COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles) is a three-year EU FP7 project that started in The project combines expertise on CMEs, SEPs and geomagnetic storms from 7 European teams (and 3 external): – Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (N. Crosby, project coordinator) – Royal Observatory of Belgium (L. Rodriguez) – Hvar Observatory (B. Vrsnak) – University of Central Lancashire (S. Dalla) – University of Graz (A. Veronig) – Technical University of Denmark (S. Vennerstrom) – National Observatory of Athens (O. Malandraki) – Udaipur Solar Observatory (N. Srivastava) – CCMC, NASA Goddard (M. Hesse) – George Mason University, NASA Goddard (D. Odstrcil)

The COMESEP alert system Basics 1 st level producer tools Consumer/producer tools Alerts Geomagnetic storm alertsSEP proton storm alerts >10 MeVSEP proton storm alerts >60 MeV

CME watch Flare watch CME arrival probability, time and geoeffectiveness SEP arrival probability, time and intensity GLE watch GE SEP Alerts GE 24h Gmag status GE CME Gmag Alert The COMESEP alert system 1st level Producers Alerts Consumers / producers

The COMESEP alert system

COMESEP 1st level producers: CACTus It detects autonomously CMEs in image sequences from SOHO/LASCO. Information on CME speed, angular width and start time are used by the system.

COMESEP 1st level producers: Flar Automatic flare detection in GOES X-Ray data. Provides flare magnitude.

COMESEP 1 st level producers: Solar DEMON The Solar Dimming and EUV wave Monitor provides information on flare location, automatically and in real time using SDO/AIA data.

COMESEP 1st level producers : GLE alert New Ground Level Enhancements alerts are sent to the COMESEP system

COMESEP consumers/producers : DBM The Drag-Based Model provides ICME Sun- Earth transit time. Inputs from CACTus.

COMESEP consumers/producers : CGFT Input 1: CME speed: 2500 km/s Distance from disc centre: 0.01 Rs CME width: halo Flare type: X flare Interaction level: high Output 1: CME speed: 400 km/s Distance from disc centre: 0.99 Rs CME width: non-halo Flare type: C flare Interaction level: low Input 2:Output 2: The CME Geomagnetic Forecast Tool (CGFT) provides a probability estimation of arrival and likely geo-effectiveness of a CME based on its solar parameters.

COMESEP consumers/producers : SEP forecast SEP probability and storm level are calculated based on a multi-dimensional analysis using the available information of the incoming producer alerts. Triggered by Flar . Inputs from CACtus, Solar DEMON, GLE alert.

COMESEP consumers/producers : Geomag24 Estimates of the risk level of geomagnetic storm occurrence for the next 24 hours. Inputs from CACTus, Solar DEMON, Flar , CGFT, DBM and from a solar wind module.

COMESEP alerts Gmag #1: Triggered by the CGFT tool when a CME is estimated to be geoeffective. Gmag #2: It will provide the geomagnetic storm risk for the next 24h. Output of Geomag24. SEP alert: Triggered by the SEP forecast tool, it provides an estimation for a radiation storm with proton energies >10 MeV and >60 MeV.

CACTus (ROB) T0, V V, da DBM (HVAR) Solar DEMON (ROB) Flar (ROB) Flare locationFlare intensity CGFT (ROB) GE Gmag Alert #1 A CME event CME arrival time

A SEP event CACTus (ROB) Solar DEMON (ROB) GLE alert (BIRA-IASB) SEP forecast (BIRA-IASB) Flar (ROB) GE SEP Alert Flare intensity Event detection Flare location V, da