Argentine Power Market Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil / Energy Buyer’s Conference Miami, September 2000.

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Presentation transcript:

Argentine Power Market Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil / Energy Buyer’s Conference Miami, September 2000

Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Argentine Power Market Argentine Power Market Central Puerto S.A. Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Opportunities for the Future Opportunities for the Future

Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Argentine Power Market Argentine Power Market Central Puerto S.A. Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Opportunities for the Future Opportunities for the Future

Argentine Power Market NOA InstCap: 1237 MW Demand:882 MW CUYO InstCap: 1280 MW Demand:782 MW CENTRO InstCap: 2148 MW Demand:1053 MW COMAHUE InstCap: 5246 MW Demand:562 MW GBA-LIT-BAS InstCap: 6720 MW Demand:8490 MW NEA InstCap: 1877 MW Demand:500MW MEM-SP InstCap: 840 MW Demand: 580 MW Figures to July-00 Maximum Demand: MW Installed capacity: MW Anual Consumption: MWh SADI 500 kV: 7000 km MEM-SP 330 Kv: 1660 km

Argentine Power Market Baseload Hydro Nuclear Combined Cycles Peakload Hydro Open Cycle CT Steam Turbines Generation 1999 Installed Capacity Fuel Consumption 1999 NatGas FO6 HO2 12 % 5 % 17 % 33 % 10 % 23 % MW 22 % 9 % 23 % 14 % 17 % GWh 34 % 37 % 29 % Bm3 100 % 750 (000)ton 27 % 73 % 36 (000)ton

Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Argentine Power Market Argentine Power Market Central Puerto S.A. Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Opportunities for the Future Opportunities for the Future

Central Puerto S.A. Installed Capacity GBA Combined Cycle 786 MW GBA Steam Turbines MW NQN Open Cycle CT 370 MW TOTAL MW Generation GWh Market Share 8,9 % Rank by Generation 2nd Sales 313 MM$ Net Income 50 MM$

Year 1998 Fuel Oil: tons Natural Gas: Dm3 Central Puerto Steam Turbines’ Fuel Consumption Year 1999 Fuel Oil: tons Natural Gas: Dm3 Central Puerto S.A.

Central Puerto Fuel Oil Average Seasonality Peak Monthly Consumption tons Average Winter Consumption tons Maximum Winter Consumption tons Winter 2000 Expected Consumption tons Central Puerto S.A.

Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Argentine Power Market Argentine Power Market Central Puerto S.A. Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Opportunities for the Future Opportunities for the Future

Fuel Oil Market in Argentina

Year 1999 TOTAL: tons Production and sales of Fuel Oil in Argentina Year 1999 TOTAL: tons Production Sales Central Puerto Fuel Oil Consumption 1999: tons Fuel Oil Market in Argentina

Price Fundamentals from a Utility’s standpoint Export Parity Local refiners with low conversion refineries export to the Gulf Coast, except some limited exports to neighbor countries Processing A refiner may alter it’s run in order to produce additional fuel oil at a higher than usual cost Import Parity Local and foreign traders arrive with fuel oil from abroad, price will depend on freight optimization (crude trip back) and shipment size. Local refiners will sell industrial fuel oil at this prices. Depends on capacity, fuel oil-heating oil spread, and local heating oil demand Platts - costo de transporte USGC-BA Platts + costo de transporte USGC-BA Refiners Traders BRAZIL Platts - costo de transporte USGC-Brasil + costo de transporte Brasil-BA Fuel Oil Market in Argentina

Fuel Oil’s price indifference to Natural Gas Natural Gas Price: 66,00 $/Dm3 Lower Fuel Oil efficiency: 0,97 Fuel Oil LHV : 9850 kcal/kg Natural Gas LHV: 8400 kcal/m3 Volume Conversion: 6,29 bbl/m3 Typical Fuel Oil Density: 0,96 kg/m3 Precio equivalente FO: 75,07 $/ton Precio equivalente FO: 11,46 $/bbl Precio equivalente FO: 64,02 $/Dm3 Fuel Oil Shipments will be taken to replace Natural Gas at a price lower then $/ton or 11,46 $/bbl on a delivered basis. Maximize processing of the cheapest fuel, typically natural gas Price Fundamentals from a Utility’s standpoint Fuel Oil Market in Argentina

Keep inventories during the winter season for NG shortages Natural Gas carries a risk of shortage during the winter season due to transportation capacity limitations. Fuel Oil stock capacity: tons Peak Consumption equivalent: 10 days Fuel Oil in the Winter Season Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil delivery lead time is 1 week for local supply (mainly due to tanker availability) and 2-4 weeks for imported material.

AprilMayJuneJuly AugustSeptemberOctober tons Start stock purchases in April Take Stocks to full capacity Fuel Oil consumption dependent on price and natural gas shortages Start stock consumption Fuel Oil in the Winter Season Fuel Oil Market in Argentina

Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Argentine Power Market Argentine Power Market Central Puerto S.A. Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Opportunities for the Future Opportunities for the Future

Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Fuel Oil competitive positioning Fuel Oil based generation is well positioned as an alternative fuel to natural gas. Fuel Oil consumption is used a as: peakload generation fuel on years of high hydroelectric generations peakload generation fuel on years of high hydroelectric generations baseload and peakload generation fuel on years of low hydroelectric generation or low temperatures. baseload and peakload generation fuel on years of low hydroelectric generation or low temperatures.

4 $/MWh 5 $/MWh 11 $/MWh 16 $/MWh 25 $/MWh 35 $/MWh Thermal Generation Fuel Natural Gas Liquid Fuels Monthly Generation for the Argentine System Variable Cost Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation

Average Daily Load Curve for the Argentine System Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation

Gas supply profile in the Greater Buenos Aires Area Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation

Liquid Fuel Consumption by Hydrologic Scenario Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation

Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Argentine Power Market Argentine Power Market Central Puerto S.A. Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Opportunities for the Future Opportunities for the Future

Medium Term Generation Projections Opportunities for the Future

Long Term Average Generation Projection Opportunities for the Future

Generating Technologies for PeakLoad Supply Cost Comparison Hydroelectric Open Cycle Combustion Turbine Steam Turbine 1500 $/kW 550 $/kW 550 $/kW 800 $/kW 800 $/kW 55 MM$/year 21 MM$/year 29 MM$/year 72.3 $/MWh $/MWh $/MWh 72.3 $/MWh $/MWh $/MWh Construction Cost Cost Cash Flow needed for 10 % IRR Peak Price Natural Gas Peak Price Liquid Fuel Based on a Peaking plant with a load factor of 35 %, the prices represent the average price needed to be“seen” by the plant’s output in order to repay variable and fixed costs and earn a 10 % return on investment. Opportunities for the Future

Generating Technologies for PeakLoad Supply Technical Comparison Hydroelectric Open Cycle Combustion Turbine Steam Turbine Availability Dependent on rains Dual Fuel Startup Time 5-10 minutes 1-4 hours 6-10 hours Reliability on Alternative Fuel Sensitive to Liquid Fuel Same as NG Opportunities for the Future

New fuel oil based steam generation plants are not likely to be built in the near future Existing fuel oil generation plants will most likely continue to be used during the winter season, with a likely increase in annual fuel oil consumption following demand growth and increasing natural gas shortage periods In the long term a window of 60 days natural gas interruption will most likely remain a market for fuel oil, as new generation combined cycles have increasing restrictions on liquid fuel use Competitive outlook for fuel oil as an alternative fuel

Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Argentine Power Market Argentine Power Market Central Puerto S.A. Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Market in Argentina Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Fuel Oil Use in Power Generation Opportunities for the Future Opportunities for the Future

Argentine Power Market Fuel Oil Use & Opportunities for the Future Central Puerto S.A. Fuel Oil / Energy Buyer’s Conference Miami, September 2000