Using Unemployment Compensation Information to Understand your Local Economy May 4, 2011 Kirk Basehore The Center for Workforce Information & Analysis

UC System Overview UC objectives –Provide temporary and partial wage replacement to involuntarily unemployed workers –Help stabilize the economy during recessions Program administration –U.S. Department of Labor oversees the system –Each state administers its own program

UC System Overview Covers 92% of all employment in PA 993,000 individuals received UC in 2010 –Compared to 582,000 recipients in ,000 UC recipients at the end of March 2011 Annual UC program information Actuarial Evaluation

Key UC Data Claims Recipients by program Exhaustees Recipient demographics

Claims Initial claims –Claims to determine initial eligibility for UC Continued claims –Biweekly requests for payment of UC benefits filed after the initial claim Uses –Leading labor market indicator – available weekly –State unemployment statistics Data sources –Weekly: U.S. Department of Labor Website –Monthly: CWIA Fast Facts USDOL - Weekly Claims Data Fast Facts - April 2011 Edition

Recipients by Program Regular UC –Up to 26 weeks of state-funded benefits Emergency UC (EUC) –Up to 53 weeks through 4 separate tiers Extended Benefits (EB) –Up to 13 or 20 weeks of benefits depending on unemployment rate Average UC duration in 2010 –Reg UC + EUC + EB: 43 weeks –Reg UC only: 20 weeks (vs. 16 weeks in 2007)

7 Program Regular UC EUC Tiers 1-4 EB (Regular EB +HUP EB) TOTAL Maximum Weeks Recipients by Programs Fast Facts - April 2011 Edition

8 Mostly ‘Reach-back’ Claimants Jan-Apr UC Exhaustees in 2010 TOTAL EXHAUSTEES IN 2010: 86,000

UC Programs Ending in 2011 April 2 - EUC Tier 4 (last 6 weeks of EUC) –Max UC duration = 93 weeks June 11 - EB –Max UC duration = 73 weeks December 31 - EUC Tiers 1 through 3 –Max UC duration (new claimants) = 26 weeks

10 EB triggers off June 11 (projected) Exhaustee Projections EUC phase-out Dec 31

Exhaustees by County Cumulative counts since January 2010 Projections for 2011 Industry breakouts 11 Fast Facts - April 2011 Edition

UC Recipient Demographics UC profiling model used for referring claimants to reemployment services Model determines exhaustion probability scores based on: –Industry, job tenure, education, weekly benefit rate Gender, race, age, education, industry 12 Profile of Pennsylvania's Unemployed PA Profile Reemployment Program (PREP)

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