Background  King of Illyria has supported American foreign policy for nearly 40 years.  America needs his country’s resources, specifically oil.  At home, the King has imprisoned and killed those who have refused to support him over the past 30 years.

Background  The King was overthrown by his people and fled to America for political asylum.  Now the King’s supporters are being imprisoned and killed.  Illyria holds America responsible because the CIA helped the King gain power against the wishes of the people nearly 40 years ago.

The ProblemThe Problem  450 students protest against their former leader, wanting the US to return him so he can be tried for his crimes and executed.  They seize the American Embassy and take 66 Americans hostage.

The ProblemThe Problem  The Illyrian government initially tries to persuade the students to free the hostages.  The Illyrian government cites international law stating that diplomats cannot be held for any reason.  The Illyrian people disagree.

The ProblemThe Problem  As a result, a new government takes power, one that supports the students.  They demand the return of the King for prosecution, or they will kill the hostages.

What do you do?What do you do?

Mr. President, you have five options… For each option, explain your decision and identify any risks.  Option 1: Return the leader to the Illyrian students.  This all but ensures the violent death of the leader. Low risk, but will likely prevent the U.S. from accessing Illyria’s resources in the future.  Option 2: Wait and hope the Illyrians back down.  Low risk, but lower chance of resolving the situation.  Option 3: Engage in a military strike on the students.  High-risk. Terrain and climate isolate the country. No bordering country will let you operate a base.  Option 4: Implement a secret rescue of the hostages.  High risk. If your agents are discovered, they will be executed and Illyria may consider it an act of war.  Option 5: Engage in a trade embargo against Illyria.  Low risk, but lower chance of resolving the situation.

Plan It OutPlan It Out OptionProsCons 1 – Return the King 2 – Wait and Hope 3 – Military Strike 4 – Secret Rescue 5 – Trade Embargo

The Real StoryThe Real Story  In 1979, Iranian revolutionaries led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, an anti- American Muslim cleric, overthrew the Shah.  When the Shah fled to the U.S., where President Carter admitted him for medical treatment, student mobs stormed the American Embassy in Tehran.

The Real StoryThe Real Story  The students took hostages and demanded the return of the Shah to stand trial.  While the Iranians eventually released most of the women and African Americans, the remaining 52 Americans were held as hostages pending the return of the Shah and his assets to Iran.

The Real StoryThe Real Story  Revolutionaries claimed the assets were stolen from Iran with the help of the United States.  These 52 American prisoners were held for more than a year: they suffered solitary confinement, beatings, and mock executions.

The Real StoryThe Real Story  During the captivity, Carter, who refused to return the Shah or apologize for U.S. aid for his regime, was unable to gain the hostages’ release through diplomacy.  He attempted to isolate Iran economically, freezing Iranian assets in the U.S. and urging other nations to sever trade ties with Iran.

The Real StoryThe Real Story  Carter’s acceptance rate fell as the crisis continued.  In desperation, he launched a failed rescue attempt that embarrassed him.  Congress reacted and voted for increased military expenditures and worked to ensure Carter didn’t win reelection.

The Real StoryThe Real Story  Carter’s efforts to free the hostages paid off in late 1980, after he had already lost reelection.  Last-minute delays and some deliberate stalling prevented the hostages from being released until after Reagan was inaugurated.

Discussion QuestionsDiscussion Questions  How did your decisions compare to Carter’s?  Knowing the outcome, would you have acted differently?  Can a possible go back and change his mind on key decisions without looking weak?  What are the difficulties involved in making such important decisions?