10-5 Making Predictions Warm Up Solve each proportion. 1.Which represents a greater amount… 0.04 or 3.9 percent? 2. A bag contains 9 lettered tiles. There are 5 Es, 3 Ts, and 1 X. What letter would you be most likely to draw?

10-5 Making Predictions Warm Up Solve each proportion. 1.Which represents a greater amount… 0.04 or 3.9 percent? 2. A bag contains 9 lettered tiles. There are 5 Es, 3 Ts, and 1 X. What letter would you be most likely to draw? An E 0.04

10-5 Making Predictions Problem of the Day After several tries, Carla figures that the probability of her flipping a playing card into a hat is. If she was successful on 3 tries, how many times did she miss? 1818

10-5 Making Predictions Problem of the Day After several tries, Carla figures that the probability of her flipping a playing card into a hat is. If she was successful on 3 tries, how many times did she miss? Carla missed 21 times. 1818

10-5 Making Predictions Learn to use probability to predict events.

10-5 Making Predictions Vocabulary prediction

10-5 Making Predictions A prediction is something you can reasonably expect to happen in the future. Weather forecasters use several different methods of forecasting to make predictions about the weather. One way to make a prediction is to use probability.

10-5 Making Predictions Lawrence finds the experimental probability of his reaching first base is 40%. Out of 350 at- bats, how many times can he expect to reach first base? Example 1: Using Experimental Probability to Make Predictions Multiply the probability by the number of at bats. · 350 = x 4 10 Method 1: Set up an equation. 140 = x

10-5 Making Predictions Think: 4 out of 10 is how many out of 350. Method 2: Set up a proportion. The cross products are equal. Multiply. 4 · 350 = 10 · x Lawrence can predict that he will reach first base about 140 of 350 times. Example 1 Continued 1400 = 10x Divide each side by 10 to isolate the variable. 140 = x = x 350

10-5 Making Predictions Malia finds the experimental probability of her scoring a goal is 20%. Out of 225 attempts, how many times can she expect to score a goal? PRACTICE 1

10-5 Making Predictions Malia finds the experimental probability of her scoring a goal is 20%. Out of 225 attempts, how many times can she expect to score a goal? PRACTICE 1 – WORKED OUT Multiply the probability by the number of attempts. · 225 = x 2 10 Method 1: Set up an equation. 45 = x Think: 2 out of 10 is how many out of 225. Method 2: Set up a proportion. SOLVE…in whatever way makes sense to YOU. Malia can predict that she will score about 45 goals of 225 attempts. 45 = x 2 10 = x 225

10-5 Making Predictions A spinner has eight sections of equal size. Three sections are labeled 1, two are labeled 2, and the others are labeled 3, 4, and 5. In 50 spins, how often can you expect to spin a 1? Example 2: Using Theoretical Probability to Make Predictions P(spinning a 1) = 3838 Think: 3 out of 8 is how many out of = x 3838 = x 50 You can expect to spin a 1 about 19 times. SOLVE the proportion.

10-5 Making Predictions Round to a whole number if it makes sense in the given situation. For example: You can’t spin a spinner 0.75 of a time. Helpful Hint

10-5 Making Predictions A spinner has eight sections of equal size. Three sections are labeled 1, two are labeled 2, and the others are labeled 3, 4, and 5. In 50 spins, how often can you expect to spin a 2? PRACTICE 2

10-5 Making Predictions A spinner has eight sections of equal size. Three sections are labeled 1, two are labeled 2, and the others are labeled 3, 4, and 5. In 50 spins, how often can you expect to spin a 2? PRACTICE 2 – Worked Out P(spinning a 2) = 2828 Think: 2 out of 8 is how many out of 50. SOLVE the proportion. You can expect to spin a 2 about 13 times = x 2828 = x 50

10-5 Making Predictions The Singh family is planning a 7-day tropical vacation during July or August. The island destination they have chosen averages 21 rainy days during this 62-day period. If the Singhs would like to avoid rain on at least 5 days of their vacation, should they go to this spot or choose another? Example 3: Problem Solving Application

10-5 Making Predictions 1 Understand the Problem The answer will be whether the Singh family should go to the island. List the important information: The island destination averages 21 rainy days out of 62 days. The Singhs want to avoid rain on at least 5 days of their vacation. Example 3 Continued

10-5 Making Predictions 2 Make a Plan On average 21 out of the 62 days it is rainy. After finding out the number of rainy days there should be forecast, subtract to find the number of not rainy days. Example 3 Continued

10-5 Making Predictions Solve 3 Example 3 Continued Think: 21 out of 62 is how many out of 7. The cross products are equal. Multiply. 21 · 7 = 62 · x 7 – 2 = = x7x7 Divide each side by 62 to isolate the variable. 147 = 62x 2.37 ≈ x There will be more than 2 rainy days in 7 days. Subtract the predicted number of rainy days from the total vacation days. 62

10-5 Making Predictions Look Back 4 They should choose a different location. It is likely to rain more than 2 days (about 2.4 days) ‏ during a 7-day period, which will not give the Singhs at least 5 sunny days. Example 3 Continued 21 rainy days 62 total days ≈ or 33% 2.4 rainy days 7 total days ≈ 2727 or 30% Since both ratios are about 30%, the answer is reasonable.

10-5 Making Predictions The Reid family is planning a 9-day winter vacation during December or January. The destination they have chosen averages 35 snow days during this 60-day period. If the Reids would like to avoid snow on at least 4 days of their vacation, should they go to this spot or choose another? PRACTICE 3 – part 1 of 5

10-5 Making Predictions 1 Understand the Problem The answer will be whether the Reid family should go to the destination. List the important information: The destination averages 35 snow days out of 60 days. The Reids want to avoid snow on at least 4 days of their vacation. PRACTICE 3 – part 2 of 5

10-5 Making Predictions 2 Make a Plan On average 35 out of the 60 days it is snowing. After finding out the number of snow days there should be forecast, subtract to find the number of not snow days. PRACTICE 3 – part 3 of 5

10-5 Making Predictions Solve 3 PRACTICE 3 – part 4 of 5 Think: 35 out of 60 is how many out of 9. The cross products are equal. Multiply. 35 · 9 = 60 · x 9 – 5 = = x9x9 Divide each side by 60 to isolate the variable. 315 = 60x 5.25 = x There will be more than 5 snow days in 9 days. Subtract the predicted number of snow days from the total vacation days. 60

10-5 Making Predictions Look Back 4 They should choose a different location. It is likely to snow more than 5 days during a 9-day period, which will not give the Reids at least 4 days without snow. PRACTICE 3 – part 5 of 5 35 snow days 60 total days ≈ or 58% 5.25 snow days 9 total days ≈ 5959 or 55% Since both ratios are about 55%, the answer is reasonable.

10-5 Making Predictions Standard Lesson Quiz Lesson Quizzes Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems

10-5 Making Predictions Lesson Quiz: 1. The experimental probability of Maura shooting a goal in field hockey is 12%. Out of 300 shots, how many can Maura predict will be goals? 2. If Scott flips two quarters 25 times, how many times can he expect to flip two heads? 3. The Aurelio family is planning a 12-day skiing trip during December or january. The region they have chosen gets the right conditions for skiing 46 days during the 62-day period. The Aurelios would like to spend at least 8 days skiing. Will their destination be a good choice?

10-5 Making Predictions 1.The experimental probability of Maura shooting a goal in field hockey is 12%. Out of 300 shots, how many can Maura predict will be goals? 2. If Scott flips two quarters 25 times, how many times can he expect to flip two heads? 3. The Aurelio family is planning a 12-day skiing trip during December or January. The region they have chosen gets the right conditions for skiing 46 days during the 62-day period. The Aurelios would like to spend at least 8 days skiing. Will their destination be a good choice? Lesson Quiz: ANSWERS 6 times 32 Yes. There will be at least 8 days with the right conditions for skiing.

10-5 Making Predictions 1. Katia finds the probability that the traffic light is red when she reaches an intersection is 45%. In one month, she goes through the intersection 65 times. How many times can she expect the light to be red when she reaches the intersection? A. 22 B. 26 C. 30 D. 45 Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems

10-5 Making Predictions 1. Katia finds the probability that the traffic light is red when she reaches an intersection is 45%. In one month, she goes through the intersection 65 times. How many times can she expect the light to be red when she reaches the intersection? A. 22 B. 26 C. 30 D. 45 Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems

10-5 Making Predictions 2. If you roll a number cube 12 times, about how many times do you expect to roll a number less than five? A. 6 B. 8 C. 10 D. 12 Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems

10-5 Making Predictions 2. If you roll a number cube 12 times, about how many times do you expect to roll a number less than five? A. 6 B. 8 C. 10 D. 12 Lesson Quiz for Student Response Systems