Greenhouse gas emissions in Winchester district ( ) Estimates and trends Bob Whitmarsh Winchester Action on Climate Change (WinACC)

Basic assumptions Global warming is largely caused by mankind burning fossil fuels and by changes in land use (agriculture and deforestation) Global warming, even of 2°C, is to be avoided if at all possible Winchester district has set targets for emissions reduction but … “If you can't measure it, you can't manage it”

Sources of emissions data in Local Authority areas Resources and Energy Analysis Programme (REAP) Stockholm Environment Institute –(consumption emissions) latest available 2006 National Indicator 186 –Per capita CO 2 emissions in a Local Authority area using UNFCCC criteria (production emissions) annual data with 21 month delay DECC databases for consumption of electricity, gas, transport fuels, other fuels (CH oil) DVLC data ( pcode, no. vehicles, eng size, emissions..)

2,081 thousand tonnes CO2e

DECC electricity and gas users ● ‘Commercial/industrial’ – those with half-hourly electricity monitoring or who use more than 73,200 kWh gas p.a. – essentially ca. 5,700 large public and private organisations (electricity) or 800 (gas) ● ‘Domestic’ (the rest) –includes ca. 43,100 households but also SMEs

The (partial) situation in 2007 (1,034 thousand tonnes CO 2 e) DECC data can explain 50% of REAP total

What’s not counted (countable) in this survey Food (REAP = 332 thousand tonnes CO 2 ) Imports (ca. 450 thousand tonnes CO 2 ) Other consumer items made in UK Components of REAP’s public and private services e.g. water supply, recreational services, capital investment, ….

What’s happened since 2007? Why 2007? 2007 is the reference year for two local targets (20:12 and one-third by 2015) Trends largely based on DECC statistics since 2007 up to 2009 (or 2008)

Winchester district’s targets: how are we doing? Emissions decreased by 5.8% over 4 years or by 1.5% per year (and NOT by 4.5% to meet targets) Figure 13. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity, gas, transport and heating oil in Winchester district ( ). Source: DECC data, 2009.

Emissions versus the targets Figure 14. Estimated emissions pathways ( ) from DECC data for Winchester district compared with two possible pathways to declared targets.

Recommendations ● Discourage flying, particularly for leisure ● Reduce use of electricity and gas, particularly in the sector that includes large organisations such as supermarkets, hotels, big offices (private and public), schools, university campuses, Winchester prison and the Royal Hampshire County Hospital. ● Reduce use of road vehicles that directly emit greenhouse gases, particularly the goods vehicle sector ● Encourage rail travel, particularly where it reduces journeys made by road.

New pathways to meet the targets (April 2011 until March 2016 inclusive) ● Winchester district as a whole needs to cut its emissions by 6.25% each year from now to achieve the targets it has set itself ● The commercial/industrial (large organisation sector) needs to cut its emissions by 7% each year from now These figures are based on an analysis that excludes the mostly harder-to- quantify sectors of food, consumerism and services and may in fact be an underestimate

What next? Add 2010 electricity, gas and transport data to trends at end of 2011 Add land use changes (small contribution) Add water supply figures Investigate flights made by WD inhabitants Account for solar panel installations Account for waste collection and landfill Try to obtain vehicle numbers from DVLC (or agents at cost) Implement the recommendations!