Migration Generated Interlinkages between Neighboring Countries and Greece Dr. Nicholas P. Glytsos, OECD, Development Centre Conference, on Migration and Development: A Euro-Mediterranean Perspective, Rhodes April Home Countries Greece Migration Movements Young workers Negative Positive Unemployment Positive ? Educational System Positive Negative Social Security System Negative Positive Unofficial Economy Positive Negative GDP Negative Positive Returning Workers ? ? Remittances Balance of Payments Positive Positive Demand Positive Negative GDP Positive ? Inflation Negative Positive Education Positive Positive

Home Countries Greece Entrepreneurial Activity Of Returning Migrants Positive Positive Of Greeks Positive Positive Host Banking Services at Home Positive Positive Tourism ? ? Migration Generated Interlinkages Between Home Countries and Greece

MIGRATION POLICIES LINKING HOME COUNTRIES AND GREECE Earlier “Hellenic Plan for the reconstruction of the Balkans”, started in 2002 with a budget of 550 million Euro. ¼ distributed to Greek investors, the rest for improving substructure and “promoting democracy and governance” (Tsardanidis, 2005). Albania received 50 million Euros, Bulgaria 54 million Euros. Financial support to Bulgaria (11.9 million Euros) and Romania (11.7 million Euros) for restructuring and converging to the EU (The Bridge, 2007). Recently (March 2007) signed Russian-Bulgarian-Greek agreement for the oil pipeline Burgas-Alexandroupolis ($1.3 billion), Greece and Bulgaria equally sharing the 49% of the stake. Agreements between Greece with Bulgaria (1995) and Albania (1996) for temporary or seasonal work (Kanellopoulos, 2006). Legislation and administrative policies on migration in Greece are progressively but slowly moving towards the facilitation of integration of immigrants, family unification and unconstrained visits to the home country. Action Ahead : Need for a new orientation of migration policy, as an organic part of development policy, jointly designed with the home neighbouring countries and Greece, towards a closer unification of their economies to the mutual benefit of both sides. An optimum joint strategy would aim at minimising any present negative effects and fostering any positive impact of migration, on either side, as described.

Evidence on Interlinkages REMITTANCES Size Albania: $778 million annually (IMF,2005). Equal twice the proceeds from exports, 1/3 of GDP. The savings of Albanians in Greece are estimated between billion Euro, and the potential propensity to invest 38.2% (Nikas, 2006). 44.8% of returnees to Albania remitted money and 2.8% household appliances Bulgaria: $400 million annually from Greece. Use Remittances from Greece “major source of dynamism” (OCED, 2002) and “vital to all aspects” (Misja, 1996) of the Albanian Economy. Survey (2002): 81.5% of remittances went to consumption, 14.8% to investment and 3.7% to housing (Labrianidis and Hatziprokopiou, 2002). Survey (2002a) of Albanian returning migrants: ½ of remittances consumed, ½ invested or saved, a modest part in productive activities (Kule et al. 2002).

ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY By Returning Migrants 58% of Albanians in Greece desire to return home (40% within a 5 year period and 45% within a 10 year period), while 27% are indecisive (66% visit Albania 1-4 times) (Survey in Nikas, 2006). 66.9% of returning men in Albania work on their own. Of them, 35.6% run their enterprises, 23.1% are self-employed and 8.2% self-employed professionals (Survey, 2002). Relatively the more educated return to Albania [48.4% hold diplomas from technical schools (30%) or universities (18.4%), against corresponding figures of 9% and 11.2% of Albanian men in Greece] (Labrianidis and Lyberaki, 2001). Survey in 200 firms in Albania (most with less than 30 employees): 17% of their finance by remittances (Nicholson,2004). Returning Albanians retain business connections with former employers in Greece (acquisition of material and equipment, distribution of Greek products in Albania). Albanians had 1, 003 businesses in Greece (2000) out of 2,873 enterprises created by individuals from foreign countries (OECD, 2002).

Entrepreneurial Activity by Greeks Big food processing, small food retailers, clothing and textile companies have moved, mostly to Bulgaria and Albania. By mid-2000’s, all business investment in the Balkans, including telecommunications (OTE) and petroleum amounted to $3.5 billion, creating jobs for tens of thousands native workers (Tsardanidis, 2005). By mid-2006, 6 Greek banks operated 1,009 local branches in 5 Balkan countries (Bulgaria: 5 banks-380 branches; Albania: 4 banks-61 branches; Romania: 6 banks-280 branches (Sunday Eleftherotypia, 11 June 2006). The Alpha Bank alone plans to about double, by the end of 2008, the credit offered in 2006 to reach 340 million Euro in Bulgaria; 305 million Euro in Albania; 2.5 billion in Romania and to almost triple it to 920 million Euro in Serbia (Kathimerini, ). In Bulgaria, Greek investment amounted ( ) to $960 million (10.2% of foreign direct investment), the 5 Greek banks having 1/3 of total banking business. Greek enterprises employ 100,000 native workers (Bulgarian Ministry of Labour). Greek investment takes the third-largest place. For Albania, Greece is the largest foreign investor and largest development aid donor (ELKE e-news, April 2005). Real Estate by Greek enterprises started in 2004, with an investment in Bulgaria $65 million (offices, residence, commercial buildings) and in Romania, $80 million (Commercial Chain).

EXPORTS-IMPORTS Exports from Greece to the Balkans were raised to over 10% from 5% of total Greek exports ten years ago. The amount of exports has tripled since Albanian Imports: from $922 million in 1996 were raised to $ 2,477.58, in 2005 (168.7%). 16.4% of total Albanian imports come from Greece (28% in 2000). Greek exports make up 55% of all EU exports to Albania. Albanian Exports: From $243,70 million 1996 were raised to $ million in 2005 (169.3%). Exports to Greece, were 10% of its total exports, in 2005 (15% in 2000). Bulgarian Imports: From $4, million in 1996 were raised to $17, million in 2005 (264%). Imports from Greece increased from million Euros in 1995 to million Euros in 2005 (401.4%).Since 2000, imports from Greece have doubled. Bulgarian Exports: From $4, million in 1996 were raised to $11, million in 2005 (140.4%). Exports to Greece, from million Euros in 1995 increased to million Euros in 2005 (257.4%). Tourism: Greece main source for Bulgaria (300,000 arrivals first half of 2005).Bulgarians the second largest group visiting Greece (40,000 in first half of 2005).