1© Dennis Meadows, 2005 System Thinking in the Higher Education A Presentation for Hungarian Teachers Budapest, Hungary April 21, 2005 Dennis Meadows

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Presentation transcript:

1© Dennis Meadows, 2005 System Thinking in the Higher Education A Presentation for Hungarian Teachers Budapest, Hungary April 21, 2005 Dennis Meadows

2© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Outline of my Speech Two possible futures - collapse or sustainable development Importance of teaching to achieve new behavior My professional experience Goal of systems thinking

3© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Overshoot and Collapse Resources Population Pollution Industrial Output Food

4© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Our thoughts in 1972 about SD It is possible to alter these growth trends and to establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustainable far into the future. This could fulfill the basic material needs of each person and give each an equal opportunity to realize their individual human potential.

5© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Sustainable Development Resources Population Pollution Industrial Output Food

6© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Required for Sustainable Development Ecoefficiency - New technologies are required in many areas - energy, land protection, pollution clean up, and others - but they are potentially available. Culture - Drastically changed goals and norms related to population growth, material consumption, concept of progress, equity, conflict, environmental protection, planning time horizons, and the inevitability of making mistakes. Systems Thinking - Ability to understand, experiment with, and change the relationships that cause change in society

7© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Examples of Technology Advance Capital Cost Production Cost Wind Energy Photovoltaic Systems

8© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Exercise: Crossing Arms

9© Dennis Meadows, 2005 My Professional Work Ten books on systems and global problems 35 years as institute director in three universities 16 years as dean of a graduate program that gave MS and PhD in systems techniques 62 years trying to understand why the world works (and has problems) the way it does

10© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Total Population Added Year Millions of People Added per Year Russia

11© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Global Oil Production will Probably Peak before 2020 Last year $8 billion invested in exploration by major oil companies discovered reserves with a present value of about $4 billion.

12© Dennis Meadows, 2005 One Index of Overshoot - the Global Ecological Footprint Year Number of Earths Required

13© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Problems Solved by Technology and the Market NowFuture Better > Next Evaluation #1

14© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Problems Not Solved by Technology and the Market NowFuture Better > Next Evaluation

15© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Goal of Systems Thinking Permit us to understand Give us the vocabulary for discussing Offer the tools for changing For the behavior of complex systems over long periods of time:

16© Dennis Meadows, 2005 Exercise: CLAP

17© Dennis Meadows, 2005