Upper Valley Housing Coalition The Power of Spring May 6, 2016 Presented by: Buff McLaughry & Ned Redpath

1 Agenda 1. Market Trends 2. Pricing 3. Market Outlook

1 2 Market Trends - Geographic Focus 1 Orford Enfield Norwich Thetford Hartland = Core Upper Valley markets = Surrounding Upper Valley towns

1 Market Trends – Hanover Listing Inventory (45)Closed Sales (14)Pending Sales (32) Up 55% Up 17% Up 23% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Days on Market (178) Down 52% Jan – March 2015 vs. Jan – March 2016

1 Listing Inventory (59)Closed Sales (19)Pending Sales (55) Up 4% Down 17% Up 4% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Days on Market (90) Down 30% Market Trends – Lebanon Jan – March 2015 vs. Jan – March 2016

Listing Inventory (153)Closed Sales (34)Pending Sales (59) Down 19% Up 42% Up 34% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Days on Market (139) Up 42% Market Trends – Hartford Jan – March 2015 vs. Jan – March 2016

Listing Inventory (256)Closed Sales (67)Pending Sales (146) Down 7% Up 14% Up 19% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Days on Market (126) Down 9% Market Trends – Hanover, Lebanon, Hartford Jan – March 2015 vs. Jan – March 2016

Listing Inventory (259)Closed Sales (49)Pending Sales (70) Down 7% Down 13% Down 16% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Days on Market (149) Down 6% Market Trends – Jan – March 2015 vs. Jan – March 2016 Thetford, Hartland, Norwich, Pomfret, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Lyme, Cornish, Plainfield

Listing Inventory (2925)Closed Sales (545)Pending Sales (816) Down 9% Up 17% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Days on Market (150) Down 8% Market Trends – Counties: Orange, Windsor, Grafton, Sullivan Jan – March 2015 vs. Jan – March 2016

Agenda 1. Market Trends 2. Pricing 3. Market Outlook

Pricing Price is Still King, but, condition of the property is right up there as well!

Average Sale Price- Down 4% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Under $300K Jan – March 2016Jan – March 2015 $178,000$171,000 Closed Sales (80)Closed Sales (96) *16 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Pomfret, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield, Cornish

Average Sale Price- *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) $300K - $600K $407,000$400,000 Closed Sales (34)Closed Sales (37) Jan – March 2016Jan – March 2015Down 2% *16 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Pomfret, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield, Cornish

Average Sale Price- *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) $600K - $1M $741,000$767,000 Closed Sales (8)Closed Sales (7) Jan – March 2016Jan – March 2015Up 4% *Statistically small sample *16 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Pomfret, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield, Cornish

Average Sale Price- Up 43% *Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNREN) Over $1M $1,505,000$2,150,000 Closed Sales (2)Closed Sales (1) *Statistically small sample Jan – March 2016Jan – March 2015 *16 Upper Valley towns: Fairlee, Thetford, Hartford, Hartland, Norwich, Pomfret, Sharon, Woodstock, Enfield, Hanover, Lebanon, Lyme, Orford, Grantham, Plainfield, Cornish

Agenda 1. Market Trends 2. Pricing 3. Market Outlook

Market Outlook – The good…. Area Unemployment Rate March 2016 United States5.0% New England4.6% Vermont3.3% New Hampshire2.6% 1.Employment is High 2. Interest Rates are Low *Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Some concern locally. Under 4% for 30 year.

Market Outlook – More good… 1.Millennials – 35 and younger. Largest generational group of home buyers: Median age 30 First time home buyers made up 32% of all homes sold. Single detached made up 83% of all homes sold. Hurdles - debt, savings and wages 2. Housing sales strong: Housing prices nationally up 2.4% in Q Household income growth 2.5% to 3.0%. *Source: National Association of Realtors

Market Outlook – The unknown… 1. The Presidential election is a huge unknown and will be even after the election. 2. How are other industries doing in the 4 th quarter and after the election? 3. What is the general attitude of the Country in the 4 th quarter and after the election? 4. If rates stay low, oil stabilizes and reasonable GDP growth, we are a go!

*2007 Values *Inflation Adjusted Values 2016 Market Outlook

Questions? Presentation posted on the Upper Valley Housing Coalition website: Buff McLaughry Ned Redpath