U.S. Air Forces Africa Command Seventeenth Air Force 1 Capt Steven Randle 17 AF/A3 Weather Weather Challenges in Africa OVERALL BRIEFING CLASSIFICATION: UNCLASSIFIED

Outline Impacts of Weather Within Africa Current Challenges to Improving African Weather Capacity How to Tackle Problems Through ADSS How to bring better weather forecasting techniques and technology to Africa? How to increase dissemination and provide equipment? How to coordinate use of cyber & space assets? Other African Weather Initiatives UNCLASSIFIED

African Weather 3 Thunderstorms Flooding Volcanoes Drought Cyclones Flooding Dust Storms Africa’s wide range of weather has vast impacts to operational, economic and political stability

Major African Weather Events Drought East Africa Drought , , 1987, , Sahelian Drought – Severe droughts in southern Africa , , , , Floods Mozambique/Southern African floods  2000, 2009 Southern Chad / Central African Republic  2008 Cyclones Avg 10 cyclones/year affect Indian Ocean islands UNCLASSIFIED

Weather Impacts Operational Impacts to Aviation Thunderstorms More destructive than CONUS, max tops range from 40K- 50K ft Heavy rain, downbursts, strong winds Dust Storms Visibility reduced to <= 1 mi over large areas 1/3 of continent is desert Widespread effects outside of desert areas Volcanic Ash Multiple active volcanoes throughout Africa Visibility Many runways VFR only UNCLASSIFIED

Weather Impacts Economic Impacts Floods/Droughts/Frosts Increased risk of disease outbreaks Interruption of economic activities Damage to infrastructure and communications Loss of lives and livelihoods Political Impacts Majority of countries in Africa are politically fragile Food insecurities and loss of income trigger political unrest Protests and politically-motivated violence a frequent occurrence UNCLASSIFIED

Current Weather Challenges 4 Main Challenges to Improving African Weather Capacity Aging/Degraded Observing Network Infrastructure Inability to Maintain and Secure Equipment Lack of Training for African Weather Personnel Lack of U.S. DoD African Forecasting Expertise Majority of African nations do not have dedicated meteorological agencies for their militaries Little evidence that African militaries receive adequate weather support from their civilian weather service agencies Lack of communication between government and academic institutions UNCLASSIFIED

Current Weather Challenges Aging/Degraded Observing Network Infrastructure African continent has significant paucity of observations Poor communications for data collection High telecommunication tariffs Unreliable & unimplemented links between hubs Few /limited computers & support hardware & software Connections must be maintained over large distances and multiple political boundaries Of certified stations in Africa, only 750 report observations UNCLASSIFIED

Current Weather Challenges Inability to Maintain and Secure Equipment Most equipment is outdated Requires technical expertise and sustained investment Requires adequate security apparatus – fences, alarms, guards Lack of Training for African Weather Personnel Limited skilled human resources Difficulty with recruitment and retention of staff 60% of African national meteorological services’ work force are meteorological technicians (High School diploma + CCAF equivalent degree) UNCLASSIFIED

Current Weather Challenges Lack of U.S. DoD African Forecasting Expertise Scientific limitations in the tropics & sub-tropics Computer Modeling limitations No technical and scientific means to develop own models Models developed elsewhere are not well adapted to African conditions Few DoD meteorologists have forecasted for Africa for significant periods of time UNCLASSIFIED

The Big Question So……… Where do we begin??????????? UNCLASSIFIED

12 INFRASTRUCTUREPERSONNEL SITUATIONAL AWARENESS RESPONSE NAVAIDS Comm. Sec. Sys. Utilities Runways Language Training Basic ATM Training Force Prot. Sec. Forces Airport Security Weather Procedural ATM Integrated Sec. Forces AOC C2 ICAO/ FAA Certs ADS-B Secondary Radar Military A/C NCC C4 Air Def Prim. Radar Mil. ATC STAGE 1 Foundation STAGE 2 Developed STAGE 3 Fully Developed SECURITY SAFETY Search & Rescue EFFICIENCY SOVEREIGNTY AVIATION LAW – CIVIL MILITARY INTERACTION/COOPERATION ADSS program

13 INFRASTRUCTUREPERSONNEL SITUATIONAL AWARENESS RESPONSE NAVAIDS Comm. Sec. Sys. Utilities Runways Language Training Basic ATM Training Force Prot. Sec. Forces Airport Security Weather Procedural ATM Integrated Sec. Forces AOC C2 ICAO/ FAA Certs ADS-B Secondary Radar Military A/C NCC C4 Air Def Prim. Radar Mil. ATC STAGE 1 Foundation STAGE 2 Developed STAGE 3 Fully Developed SECURITY SAFETY Search & Rescue EFFICIENCY SOVEREIGNTY AVIATION LAW – CIVIL MILITARY INTERACTION/COOPERATION Weather ADSS Breakdown STAGE 1 STAGE 2 1) Weather Observation Creation 2) Weather Observation Dissemination / Collection 3) Near-Term Forecasts (< 24 Hrs) 4) Mid-Range forecasts ( Hrs) Cornerstone to Weather Situational Awareness is capability to create, disseminate and collect surrounding weather observations

14 The Starting Point Weather Operations Defined AFDD 2-9.1, Weather Operations Defines 5 steps in Weather Operations Process COLLECT, Analyze, Predict, Tailor, Integrate The Collect process is defined as follows: The weather operations process depends on the collection of high-quality data that sets the foundation for enhancing operational missions. Collection is the essential component of worldwide and regional databases from which weather products are derived. Collection consists of surface weather observations, upper air observations, satellite data, and radar data Availability of surface weather observations has the most impact on weather operations

15 Current Observation Density Europe: 3.8M sq miles # of Obs/Day: 2395 Obs/Sq mi = CONUS: 3.1M sq miles # of Obs/Day: 2344 Obs/Sq mi = Africa: 11.7M sq miles # of Obs/Day: 750 Obs/Sq mi =

METAR Obs in Europe

METAR Obs in United States

METAR Obs in Africa

19 Compounding Effects of Improved Collection Surface observation collection is cornerstone of weather forecasting Used to assess local and surrounding environments Forecasts begin with observations Weather observations must be disseminated globally Weather is transitory, therefore it is necessary to know weather conditions upstream Access to nearby upstream observations can rapidly enhance near term forecasts (< 12 hours) Injection of weather observations into global dissemination system improves accuracy of computerized weather forecasts

Compounding Effects of Improved Collection 20 More observations improve Situational Awareness Improved SA decreases initial error in computer forecast models Decreased error improves Mid to Long Range Forecasts More Observations 6-12 hr forecast capability hour forecast capability hr forecast capability

Bringing better weather forecasting techniques to Africa 21 Degraded Observing Network Infrastructure Lack of Equipment Maintenance / Security Lack of Training for African Weather Personnel Lack of African Forecasting Expertise Improve Infrastructure for observation dissemination Teach effective maintenance techniques Inject increased observation density into U.S. computer forecast models, improving long term accuracy Integrate fundamental forecasting techniques with improved observation network Improved Observations Density improves local and global situational awareness Share computer model data /new forecast techniques with African Weather personnel Teach / Re-enforce fundamental forecasting techniques Tailor forecast techniques for local area / build local expertise U.S. / DoD forecasters study improved models / develop new forecast techniques

Addressing Dissemination and Equipment Challenges World Meteorological Organization (WMO) defines and manages global observation dissemination techniques/procedures African Collection/Dissemination hierarchy is established Infrastructure is primary breakdown Can be resolved with IP connections from centralized hubs to established Regional METOC Centers Data transmission requirements are minimal (Kb, not Mb) Resolution dependent on comm infrastructure of host nation Forecast products can be obtained through single computer with internet connection Numerous open source sites share weather products for Africa NWS provided laptops w/WRF installed are being used in Africa DoD sites have more robust data, but granting host nation access has proven difficult UNCLASSIFIED

Exploiting Cyber & Space Assets WMO freely disseminates global weather observations to scientific and aviation communities Cyber/Space backbone is already in place DoD and DoS agencies currently collect this data Once received, data is input into global computer models and shared over internet Observations and forecast models are already available Remaining challenge Connecting Africa to this infrastructure so they may share and receive shared data Connection robustness is more important than capacity Large data hauls are not immediately required, dependable connections are UNCLASSIFIED

Other Agencies Involved World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ACMAD (African Center of Meteorological Application for Development) NOAA National Climatic Data Center National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center African Organizations IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) DoS and DoD Projects USAID – Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) US Navy – African Partnership Station Academia/National Science Foundation UNCLASSIFIED

Conclusion Weather challenges in Africa are large and numerous Operational, Economic, and Political Impacts Most efficient way to solve problems is to improve observation collection and sharing Improve Situational Awareness Improve Forecasting Techniques Forces African Weather Agencies to plug into data infrastructure necessary to share/receive data Must work hand in hand with other agencies/organizations Solving data collection problem benefits Aviation community and international organizations fighting Economic and Political Impacts of Climate Change UNCLASSIFIED

26 Hidden Slides

WMO African Observation Network 27