National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Mobile - Pensacola Special Briefing Update 11 AM CDT Friday 25 April 2014

This outlook is intended for interests across interior southeast Mississippi, southwest and south central Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and the adjacent Gulf coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida

Opening Comments Far out in time and event predictability is still low. Be aware the pattern favors thunderstorms with some possibly severe! We are seeing abnormally high forecast values of atmospheric instability. Main job is to break down impacts in space and time. We are very dependent on patterns for now due to timing uncertainties. What was once one quick punch on Monday appears to now be spread over the upcoming mid-week. Thunderstorms are possible over interior SE MS as early as Sunday afternoon and evening. May see a few warnings come up to our border, but we think the severe activity will remain just to the west. If this changes we will let you know. Far out in time and event predictability is still low. Be aware the pattern favors thunderstorms with some possibly severe! We are seeing abnormally high forecast values of atmospheric instability. Main job is to break down impacts in space and time. We are very dependent on patterns for now due to timing uncertainties. What was once one quick punch on Monday appears to now be spread over the upcoming mid-week. Thunderstorms are possible over interior SE MS as early as Sunday afternoon and evening. May see a few warnings come up to our border, but we think the severe activity will remain just to the west. If this changes we will let you know.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential 7 AM Mon – 7 AM Tue 7 AM Tue – 7 AM Wed Broad area of threat with many timing uncertainties!!!

Timing – 7 AM CDT Monday Mon PM – Tue AM thunderstorms… some severe. Supercells possible. First Round – NW I-65

Timing – 7 AM CDT Tuesday Tuesday and into early Wednesday thunderstorms…some severe. Couple of rounds and merging into line before moving to along coast! Flash Flood threat kicks in by late Tue-Early Wed!

How Wet is Ground? Rainfall (in.) Last 30 Days 10-20” 4-8” + 3-8” + Rainfall Departure (in.) Last 14 Days 5-10” Rainfall (in.) Last 14 Days Rainfall Departure (in.) Last 30 Days 4-8”+

Timing – 7 AM CDT Wednesday Tuesday and into early Wednesday thunderstorms…some severe. Couple of rounds and merging into line before moving along coast! Flash Flood threat kicks in late Tue-Early Wed! River Flood threat returns!

Timing – 7 AM CDT Thursday Front Clears Wed Afternoon but this keeps getting pushed back in time! DRY! River Flood threat returns!

Event Summary Far out in time and event predictability is still low. Be aware the pattern favors thunderstorms with some possibly severe! We are seeing abnormally high forecast values of atmospheric instability. Round 1 (Mon PM-Tue AM) - All modes of thunderstorms possible, likely supercells with first round NW of I-65 late Monday and into overnight hours of Tuesday. Round 2 (3?) - From midday Tuesday and through early Wednesday – a couple of rounds are possible with the storms merging into a line late Tue and gradually moving southeastward to settle along AL/NW FL coastal zone, but also possibly dumping additional heavy rainfall. Rip Current Risk elevates late weekend and into next week. Due to saturated grounds and depending on amount of rainfall, area rivers may go right back into flood by mid-late next week. This is a ‘wait and see.’ Far out in time and event predictability is still low. Be aware the pattern favors thunderstorms with some possibly severe! We are seeing abnormally high forecast values of atmospheric instability. Round 1 (Mon PM-Tue AM) - All modes of thunderstorms possible, likely supercells with first round NW of I-65 late Monday and into overnight hours of Tuesday. Round 2 (3?) - From midday Tuesday and through early Wednesday – a couple of rounds are possible with the storms merging into a line late Tue and gradually moving southeastward to settle along AL/NW FL coastal zone, but also possibly dumping additional heavy rainfall. Rip Current Risk elevates late weekend and into next week. Due to saturated grounds and depending on amount of rainfall, area rivers may go right back into flood by mid-late next week. This is a ‘wait and see.’

Briefing Plan updates over the weekend. Statewide AL 800 mHz Sat and Sun. Will likely do a webinar on Monday unless we are already in the event. If events becomes any more strung out in time, another webinar may be necessary later in the week. updates over the weekend. Statewide AL 800 mHz Sat and Sun. Will likely do a webinar on Monday unless we are already in the event. If events becomes any more strung out in time, another webinar may be necessary later in the week.

weather.gov/mob Briefing Slides and Imagery

weather.gov/mob River Forecasts (Rivers / Lakes)