Hal Gillmore Transition Network Transition Town Totnes Local action on climate change and peak oil: overcoming personal and corporate barriers

Peak Oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil oil underpins oil underpins –industrial development –agriculture –economics –population about ½ way through it… about ½ way through it… it’s going to decline it’s going to decline

Peak Oil – a theory? 98 oil producers 98 oil producers

Peak Oil – a theory? Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers

Peak Oil – discovery US discovery peaked in 1930s US discovery peaked in 1930s –production peaked in 1971 UK discovery peaked in 1975 UK discovery peaked in 1975 –production peaked in 1999 world discovery peaked in 1960s world discovery peaked in 1960s –production will peak in 20??

Climate Change – the end of the debate Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: Upsala Glacier, Argentina

Climate Change – the start of the feedbacks…

Peak Oil & Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) climate engineering climate engineering carbon capture and storage carbon capture and storage tree-based carbon offsets tree-based carbon offsets international emissions trading international emissions trading climate adaptation climate adaptation improved transportation logistics improved transportation logistics nuclear power nuclear power PLANNED RELOCALISATION local resilience carbon reduction consume closer to home produce closer to home play closer to home decentralised energy infrastructure the Great Reskilling localised food energy descent plans local medicinal capacity local currencies PEAK OIL PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquids coal to liquids gas to liquids gas to liquids relaxed drilling regulations relaxed drilling regulations massively scaled biofuels massively scaled biofuels tar sands and non- conventional oils tar sands and non- conventional oils resource nationalism and stockpiling resource nationalism and stockpiling

What can we do? Global Global –Oil Depletion Protocol –Contraction and Convergence –Kyoto National National –TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing) Community Community –Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural Personal Personal –“The work that reconnects” –self directed re-education –getting Gaia’ed

How do we respond? Going up the energy slope, we used Going up the energy slope, we used –ingenuity –creativity –adaptability –cooperation Going back down… –if we’re early enough –if we’re cooperative –the future could be a whole lot better…

The Petroleum Interval

1. Life with dramatically lower energy consumption is inevitable an it is better to plan for it than to be taken by surprise. 2. Our communities currently lack the resilience to enable them to withstand the severe energy shocks that will accompany peak oil. 3. We have to act collectively and we have to act now. 4. By unleashing the collective genius of those around us to proactively design our own energy descent, we can build ways of living that are more connected, more enriching, and that recognise the biological limits of our planet. Transition is based on Four key assumptions

Our choice… We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it. We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

How do we get from where we are now to an abundant, pleasurable and resilient future?

Near here … Caradon, Tavistock, Liskeard, Ivybridge, Launceston, South Brent, Newton Ferrers, Totnes ….. University of Plymouth? Plymouth City? Transition Initiatives Currently 134 ‘official’ worldwide, 1000s mulling it over

Hal Gillmore Local action on climate change and peak oil: overcoming personal and corporate barriers