Forecaster-Over-The-Loop Demonstration Forecaster CWSU Auto-nowcaster Rita Roberts 28 November 2007 Goals: Science and Operational Debrief NWS Program Review

Forecaster provides input into Auto-nowcaster system; e.g. convergence lines. Forecaster-Over-The-Loop Demonstration Dallas/Ft. Worth WFO Funded by the NWS Aviation Branch, forecasters assist in overseeing and improving rapidly updated thunderstorm Auto-nowcaster products sent to the CWSU Forecaster selects synoptic regimes for Auto-nowcaster and products sent to CWSU Short term probabilistic forecasts sent to CWSU for use in graphical aviation display. 0-30% Coverage = Green 30-60% Coverage Marginal = Yellow % coverage Impacted = Red Thunderstorm Forecasts for Airport Arrival Gates Convergence lines Slide 2

thresholded and contoured to produce final forecast Forecast verification Combining Predictor (Likelihood) Fields Using Fuzzy Logic To Produce Thunderstorm Initiation Nowcasts Likelihood Fields Convergence Boundaries Likelihood fields are summed, Radar “Cumulus” Echoes Thunderstorm Nowcasting System “Auto-Nowcaster” Slide 3

Ultimate Impact of Human-Inserted Boundaries on Auto-nowcaster Storm Initiation Likelihood Field No Human Interaction. Low interest values-no storms likely. Human has inserted a moving boundary that is ingested into upstream algorithms 5 min later impact of human-entered boundary: interest is increased near boundary reddish areas are where new storms are expected in 60 min Slide 4

Forecaster Interaction Forecaster-entered convergence boundaries using regional radar data - Currently on CIDD; soon on AWIPS Storm initiation likelihood fields for different synoptic regimes Dry Line RegimeAir Mass Regime Slide 5

Before & After Nudge Slide 6 Polygon and Nudging Tool -for adjustment of thunderstorm likelihood intensities

NWS/NCAR 3 Year Contract Year 1 (1 Aug Aug 2007) $150K + $35K At DFW: Continue to run ANC system at DFW. Upgrades to ANC based on 2006 forecaster (Fano, Patrick) feedback. ANC nowcast fields and forecaster tools (boundary/polygon) accessed within AWIPS; data flow between AWIPS and ANC (Albo, Ba) ANC playback simulator (workstation) installed at DFW for forecaster training (Megenhardt) Products sent to CWSU via a dedicated web page. At NCAR: NCAR provides summary report of 2006 ANC/Forecaster performance (Roberts et al) NCAR works on refining existing regimes (Nelson) NCAR begins work on an elevated regime for ANC (Cai) NCAR begins conversion of deterministic nowcasts to probabilistic (requested, but did not receive supplemental funding) Slide 7

1. Summary of 2007 related activities for each group (WFO, CWSU, NCAR, MDL) 9:15CST: Introductory comments (Rita Roberts) 9:30 CST:MDL plan and objective (Steve Smith) 9:45 CST: NWS Aviation expectation (Curt and Cyndie) 10:00 CST: WFO feedback for 2007 operations (Greg and Steve Fano) 10:15 CST: Feedback from CWSU of the use of ANC product 10:30 CST: Break 10:45 CST: AWIPS-ANC interface Demo (Steve Fano, Ama) 11:30 CST: Highlights of 2007 and forecaster interaction with the ANC - Eric Nelson 11:45 CST: 2007 Engineering efforts - Dan Megenhardt 12:00: CST Statistical results from the 2006 Forecaster-over-the-loop demo – Rita 12:15: CST Break (Lunch, ordering in) 2. Discussion of transfer CIDD capabilities to AWIPS 1:15 CST: Summary of NCAR activities - Dave Albo 1:30 CST:Summary of MDL activities – Ama Ba 3. Goals for 2008 demonstration 1:45CST Statement of Work - Rita 2:00CST Evaluation of ANC synoptic regimes - Eric Nelson 2:15CSTProbabilistic ANC nowcasts - Dave Albo 2:30CST Implementing a larger ANC domain- Dan Megenhardt 2:45 CST: AWIPS Prototyping (MDL, NCAR, Aviation) Discussion of AWIPS prototyping for 2008 (MDL, NCAR, Aviation) Discussion of estimates of ANC implementation on AWIPS Funding of NCAR by aviation for 2009 and beyond 3:30 CST: Wrap up/adjourn Agenda Slide 8