May 3, 2016

Over the last few decades has the crime rate been going up, going down, or holding steady?

Most of my students (and most Americans) believe that the crime rate is rising despite the date. How do you explain the misperception?

Police departments warn about the dangers of crime, even when crime rates are falling, because that is their job and their budgets depend on public support. Politicians focus on crime to win votes. Finally, the media sensationalize the crimes that do occur.

If it bleeds, it leads!

Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) National Crime Victim Survey (NCVS) A record of offenses known to police compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) from reports submitted by local law enforcement agencies. A measure of the incidence of crime in the United States based on interviews with people in more than 50,000 households. Why is this measure imperfect? Why is this an imperfect measure?

About what percentage of crimes are reported to police? About half Why do many crimes go unreported?

Property crimes are more frequent than violent crimes. Theft is the most frequently reported major crime. The crime rate in Texas is above the national average.

Crime is more frequent in urban areas than rural areas.

Why is the Texas crime rate relatively high? The population is relatively young. The population is relatively poor. The population is relatively mobile. The state’s political culture condones violence.

Is the crime rate in Texas falling, staying the same, or rising?

How about Houston?

Prison expansion. Nearly 7 million Americans, 3 percent of the population, are behind bars, a significant increase over the 1990s. Better police work. Some experts attribute the falling crime rate to better police work, including the introduction of community policing and the implementation of zero tolerance policies in high-crime areas. High-tech crime fighting tools.

States banned leaded gasoline in the 1970s and early 1980s. Research shows that young children exposed to lead have many complications later in life, including lower IQ, hyperactivity, behavioral problems, and learning disabilities, and likelihood to take part in criminal activity.

Professors John J. Donohue 3d and Dr. Steven D. Levitt credit much of the reduction in crime rates to legalized abortion. What is their theory?

Donohue and Levitt point to the fact that males aged 18 to 24 are most likely to commit crimes. Data indicates that crime in the United States started to decline in Donohue and Levitt suggest that the absence of unwanted aborted children, following legalization in 1973, led to a reduction in crime 18 years later, starting in 1992 and dropping sharply in These would have been the peak crime- committing years of the unborn children.

Another crime rate theory is that the crime rate has fallen because of the decline in the crack cocaine market. Note the sharp drop in 2009.

Criminologists expected the crime rate to go up significantly in 2009 because of the Great Recession, but crime actually went down nearly ten percent that year. Some scholars believe that the election of Barack Obama, the first black president, broadened young people’s vision of what is possible for their lives. This was especially true among young black men, whose crime rates during that year fell at almost twice the rate of their peers.

People living in rural areas or urban? Urban Low-income or high income people? Low Young people or old? Young Men or women? Men Racial and ethnic minority group members or whites? Minority group members Renters or homeowners? Renters

Most criminals are young, poorly educated men. Criminals and victims often know one another, especially violent criminals. Murder typically stays within racial groups.

Has the crime rate been rising or falling? Do public perceptions of the crime rate match reality? Why or why not? Is the crime rate in Texas above or below the national average? How is the crime rate measured? What groups are more likely to be criminals? Victims?