ERCOT Severe Weather Drill Hurricane May May 2012.

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Presentation transcript:

ERCOT Severe Weather Drill Hurricane May May 2012

1.(8:00 a.m. Drill Day 1) Hurricane May is entering the Gulf of Mexico. May is located just off the Yucatan peninsula at 21.7 N, W moving 15 MPH. May is a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds and is expected to strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane over the next few hours. Computer models predict the probability of landfall along the Upper Texas/Louisiana Coast. 2.(10:30 a.m. Drill Day 1) Hurricane May is located at 23.0 N, W moving 15 MPH. May is a minimal Category 5 hurricane with winds measured at 156 mph. Hurricane models have shifted landfall probabilities to the Mid-Texas coastline. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from Brownsville to Port Arthur. Predictions indicate a 10% probability of landfall within the next 72 hours at Freeport, a 20% probability at Port Lavaca and a 10% probability at Corpus Christi. 3.(1:00 p.m. Drill Day 1) Hurricane May is located at 24.7 N, W moving 15 MPH. Hurricane May has become a dangerous Category 5 hurricane with winds clocked at 159 mph. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Texas coast from Brownsville to Port Arthur. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Galveston. Predictions now indicate a 20% probability of landfall at Freeport, a 40% probability at Port Lavaca and a 20% probability at Corpus Christi within the next 48 hours. 4.(3:30 p.m. Drill Day 1) Hurricane May is located at 26.6 N, W moving 15 MPH. May has weakened to a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. The highest probability of landfall is now 75% at Port Lavaca by tomorrow morning. Hurricane force winds are expected to extend out 100 miles either side of the storm creating foot storm surges as far north as Galveston and southward towards Port Aransas. A Hurricane Warning continues from Corpus Christi to Galveston. Once May makes landfall it is expected to weaken rapidly as it moves inland and then make a northerly turn as it collides with high pressure in West Texas. 5.(07:30 a.m. Drill Day 2) Hurricane May is located at 28.3 N, W moving 15 MPH. May is moving ashore near Port Lavaca, Texas as a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. May is expected to turn to a more Northerly path and rapidly lose strength. 6.(10:30 a.m. Drill Day 2) Hurricane May is located at 30.5 N, W moving 10 MPH placing it on a course toward Dallas. May has weakened to a Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 81 mph and is expected to weaken to Tropical Storm strength within several hours. 7.(1:00 p.m. Drill Day 2) Tropical Storm May is located at 33.0 N, W moving 4 MPH. May has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm with winds of 56 mph. May is expected to remain almost stationery and dump up to 15 inches of rain per hour throughout the evening. Storm Warnings

H 21.7 N W 23.0 N W 24.7 N W 26.6 N W 28.3 N W 30.5 N W 33.0 N W

Storm Track Wind Swath H 28.3 N W 30.5 N W 33.0 N W

Day N W 21.7 N W OCN 28.3 N W Landfall Emergency Notice 30.5 N W 33.0 N W Day Compressed Drill Time Line Emergency CommunicationsSimulation 23.0 N W Advisory 26.6 N W Watch All drill activities to occur during normal business hours ( CPT)