Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Global challenges for national skills development Mark Keese Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs Meeting of Experts on Skills to Meet Global Challenges, ILO International Training Centre, Turin, March 2010

2 Technical & organisational change Achieving balanced & sustainable growth Population ageingGlobalisation Skills strategy Global challenges in a nutshell

Technical & organisational change Skills needs are evolving in response to technological & organisational change as well as changes in consumer demand Mainly a shift towards high-skilled jobs -- but some evidence of polarisation (i.e. hollowing-out of skill distribution of jobs) Need for better information on skill requirements of jobs, e.g. importance of:  Routine versus non-routine tasks  Hard skills versus soft skills Considerable challenge for education and training systems to adapt to these changes in skill demands Identifying key skills Chart 1. Change in labour demand in terms of routine and non-routine tasks, United States 3

Achieving balanced & sustainable growth In response to the economic crisis but also the long-term challenge of climate change, skill development will be crucial to renewing economic growth on a balanced and sustainable basis The crisis has intensified longer-term shifts in skill as blue-collar workers have been hit harder than white-collar workers Growth can be made more inclusive through greater access to education and training for disadvantaged groups in the labour market  Youth and low-skilled most at risk of being left behind in the recovery  But tackling inequalities in training has not been easy Skills for mobility and new skills for green jobs The crisis has also reinforced the message that we will need to be more job-mobile than in the past Acquiring a range of generic skills can prove to be a life insurance against prolonged unemployment and help displaced workers find new jobs  But which generic skills are most useful?  How can more comprehensive and rapid information on skill demands be provided? Green jobs are likely to expand  But again need for better information on what types of skills these jobs will require 4

Population ageing In many countries, rapid population ageing is occurring Firms may face recruitment difficulties as the number of workers retiring rises relative to new labour market entrants Growing importance of lifelong learning so that workers can upgrade their skills and prevent skill obsolescence But also need to tackle under-utilisation of existing stock of human capital  E.g. women and older workers may face employment barriers because of family responsibilities, early retirement measures and poor working conditions Skills for ageing populations Mismatch may also be another reason for under-utilisation of skills  Across OECD countries, women generally appear to face greater rates of over-qualification than men and migrants more than natives Need to anticipate future skill needs of an expanding workforce in health and long-term care Not just in terms of training more workers in this sector but also issues of skill mix  (general versus specialist skills in medical care) and the transferability of qualifications (especially for immigrants) 5

Globalisation Increased trade and outsourcing are placing greater competitive pressures on all countries In response, the skills of workers are being and should be upgraded  The optimal strategy must be to compete through innovation and increased productivity rather than through lower wages  Indeed, there is evidence that this is happening with increased technological and organisational change occurring among successful firms in richer countries in response to greater imports from low-wage countries Responding to greater competitive pressures In turn, education and training systems need to be supportive of this increased demand for more highly- skilled workers Regional dimension: just as countries compete, regions are also developing skill strategies to combat or reverse regional decline Again, a sustainable strategy involves a mixture of measures to improve the skills of workers increase the region’s attractiveness more generally for both firms and qualified workers 6

Improving the knowledge base: the new OECD survey of adult skills PIAAC will extend and improve on the work of previous international surveys of adults skills by: Expanding direct assessment to problem solving skills in context of IT and component literacy skills Extending skill measures to broader range of skills used at work Tightening focus on links between skills and labour market outcomes  Determine importance of “soft” skills Measuring comparably both formal and less formal training and barriers to training 7 Literacy, numeracy & problem- solving skills Skill formation & labour market and social outcomes Skills used at work Household-based survey of population (minimum of 5000 respondents per country) to be held in (mainly OECD) countries participating The OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC): a new window on adult skills

Conclusions  A number of global challenges for skill development policies can be identified  Appropriate policy responses will differ across G20 countries but will be more effective if taken as part of a skills strategy  This will ensure greater co-ordination of efforts and better utilisation of scarce resources  As part of any skills strategy, there is a need for better data on training and skill needs, more evaluations of existing skill development programs and sharing of experiences across countries.  The OECD’s PIAAC survey will help fill these knowledge gaps as well as its ongoing assessment of students (PISA) and its reviews of VET, tertiary education and regional skill strategies, but much more remains to be done in co-operation with other international bodies such as the ILO 8

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