1 Health2016.globalchange.gov THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN HEALTH IN THE UNITED STATES: A SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT Health2016.globalchange.gov Presenter’s Name Affiliation Event – date

2 Health2016.globalchange.gov Lead Authors Charles B. Beard, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Rebecca J. Eisen, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Contributing Authors Christopher M. Barker, University of California, Davis Jada F. Garofalo, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Micah Hahn, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Mary Hayden, National Center for Atmospheric Research Andrew J. Monaghan, National Center for Atmospheric Research Nicholas H. Ogden, Public Health Agency of Canada Paul J. Schramm, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Contributors VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES 5

3 Health2016.globalchange.gov Changing Distributions of Vectors and Vector- Borne Diseases Key Finding 1: Climate change is expected to alter the geographic and seasonal distributions of existing vectors and vector-borne diseases [Likely, High Confidence]. VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES 5

4 Health2016.globalchange.gov VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES Earlier Tick Activity and Northward Range Expansion Key Finding 2: Ticks capable of carrying the bacteria that cause Lyme disease and other pathogens will show earlier seasonal activity and a generally northward expansion in response to increasing temperatures associated with climate change [Likely, High Confidence]. Longer seasonal activity and expanding geographic range of these ticks will increase the risk of human exposure to ticks [Likely, Medium Confidence]. 5

5 Health2016.globalchange.gov VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES Changing Mosquito-Borne Disease Dynamics Key Finding 3: Rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and a higher frequency of some extreme weather events associated with climate change will influence the distribution, abundance, and prevalence of infection in the mosquitoes that transmit West Nile virus and other pathogens by altering habitat availability and mosquito and viral reproduction rates [Very Likely, High Confidence]. Alterations in the distribution, abundance, and infection rate of mosquitoes will influence human exposure to bites from infected mosquitoes, which is expected to alter risk for human disease [Very Likely, Medium Confidence]. 5

6 Health2016.globalchange.gov VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES Emergence of New Vector-Borne Pathogens Key Finding 4: Vector-borne pathogens are expected to emerge or reemerge due to the interactions of climate factors with many other drivers, such as changing land-use patterns [Likely, High Confidence]. The impacts to human disease, however, will be limited by the adaptive capacity of human populations, such as vector control practices or personal protective measures [Likely, High Confidence]. 5

7 Health2016.globalchange.gov Confidence/Likelihood Terminology

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14 Health2016.globalchange.gov To view the full report: health2016.globalchange.gov health2016.globalchange.gov Recommended Citation: Beard, C.B., R.J. Eisen, C.M. Barker, J.F. Garofalo, M. Hahn, M. Hayden, A.J. Monaghan, N.H. Ogden, and P.J. Schramm, 2016: Ch. 5: Vectorborne Diseases. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 129– This report is in the public domain. Some materials in the report are copyrighted and permission was granted for their publication in this report. For subsequent uses that include such copyrighted materials, permission for reproduction must be sought from the copyright holder. In all cases, credit must be given for copyrighted materials. All other materials are free to use with credit to this report. VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES 5