Are All the Data Making a Difference? 1. 2 Numerical Simulation 24 hours CPU = 1 hour real 20 TB of output Still trying to understand Mother Nature Real.

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Presentation transcript:

Are All the Data Making a Difference? 1

2

Numerical Simulation 24 hours CPU = 1 hour real 20 TB of output Still trying to understand Mother Nature Real time! Still trying to understand Data Don’t Guarantee Understanding!

Sample: March 2000 Fort Worth Tornadic Storm

Tornado Local TV Station Radar

NWS 12-hr Computer Forecast Valid at 6 pm CDT (near tornado time) No Explicit Evidence of Precipitation in North Texas

Reality Was Quite Different!

6 pm 7 pm8 pm Radar Xue et al. (2003) Fort Worth

6 pm 7 pm8 pm Radar Fcst With Radar Data 2 hr 3 hr 4 hr Xue et al. (2003) Fort Worth

Real Time Testing Today: FORECAST

Real Time Testing Today: RADAR 9-Hour Forecast

Each set of forecasts (ensemble and individual) – produces 6 TB of output PER DAY – Requires 9000 cores (750 nodes) of the Kraken Cray XT5 at Oak Ridge – Takes 6.5 hours to run Provisioning of data in real time HUGE value for research – predictability! Management in a repository – retention time? Experiment reproducibility!! Creating products that will benefit the public (smart device location-based warnings) Challenges

Warn on Explicit Forecast?

Be careful what you wish for! A one-hour model-based “tornado warning” would be a game changer Social and behavioral science elements are critical Our ability to effectively warn the public and understand its response is relatively crude Challenges