WHY MIGHT THE WORLD FACE AN OVERPOPULATION PROBLEM? Chapter 2 Section 4

Will the World Face an Overpopulation Problem? Malthus on overpopulation – Population growth & food supply – Malthus’ critics Declining birth rates – Malthus theory & reality – Reasons for declining birth rates World health threats – Epidemiological transitions

Retired Man in Russia

Overpopulation People are living longer Standard of living is going up We are consuming more per person on average Many countries are eating more per person on average CBR is still high in stage 2 countries NIR is still positive in most countries We have limited resources

What is overpopulation? Too many people Too few resources Increased scarcity Resources are finite What could this cause? Starvation, wars, genocide, more likely for epidemics?

Thomas Malthus An English economist who lived from 1766 to 1834 He argued that the world’s rate of population growth was going to overrun the development of food supplies He is still widely read today

Thomas Malthus He wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population 1798 He claimed that the population was growing faster than the Earth’s food supply He said population increases geometrically while food supply increased arithmetically He pushed for “moral restraint” in lowering the CBR or thought disease, famine, war, and other disasters would have to limit growth by raising CDRs

Thomas Malthus People still follow him today Our unprecedented growth rates scare a lot of people Neo-Malthusians argue that it is much worse today They also argue that it is not just food production that won’t keep up- clean air, arable land, fuel, etc…

Fuel Wood Collection in Mali

Thomas Malthus Malthus’s Critics says that his equation is flawed because it says that the world’s resources are fixed and not expanding You can farm more land and we have better technology today We can’t create more land, but we can farm more land Some resources are finite though The critics also say that larger populations create economic growth and more opportunities and more resources and that the world is better off with more people than fewer because too few retard growth

Food & Population, Malthus vs. Actual Trends Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

Declining Birth Rates The world population has not increased as much as Malthus predicted- he thought it would go from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 10 billion in it is only 6 billion He did not foresee many of the technological, cultural, social, and economic changes to come CBR has also decreased more

Declining Birth Rates NIR only can decrease with lower CBR or higher CDR A higher CDR means lots of bad things are happening most likely CBR can be more controlled

What can lower CBR? Economic development: more women attending school and working outside of the home, more wealth and opportunities, fewer people farming needing fewer hands Social development: more social opportunities, fewer children is more of a social norm now, lower IMR, distribution of contraceptives, more education

Crude Birth Rate Decline, Fig. 2-21: Crude birth rates declined in most countries during the 1980s and 1990s (though the absolute number of births per year increased from about 120 to 130 million).

Use of Family Planning Fig. 2-22: Both the extent of family planning use and the methods used vary widely by country and culture.

Women Using Family Planning

Family Planning Methods used in three countries

Family Planning More common in MDCs Some LDCs practice it China is the most fierce about it- 1 child per family or you pay huge taxes and fees for each additional child

Promoting One-Child Policy in China

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World Health Threats The larger the population, the closer people live together, the tighter the time-space convergence, the faster threats and problems spread Medicine and information is better today Medical researchers have identified an epidemiologic transition that focuses on distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition Epidemiology is the branch of medicine concerned with diseases and how they spread and are controlled

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 1 This is the stage of pestilence and famine that coincides with demographic transition stage 1 (outlined by Abdel Omran in 1971) Infectious and parasitic diseases were the main cause of human deaths, along with accidents, murders and “natural checks” (Malthus’s term) on population growth in stage 1 of the demographic transition

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 1 Examples: – Black Plague in the Middle Ages killed about ½ of the continent’s population and then around 13 million Chinese in it was transmitted to humans by fleas from rats

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 2 This stage is called the stage of receding pandemics and coincides with stage 2 in demographic transition A pandemic is a highly contagious disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects a lot of people Infectious and parasitic diseases of stage 1 were reduced by medical breakthroughs and improved sanitation, nutrition, and medicine

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 2 In stage 2 though, death rates and disease rates did not decrease across the board- the poor still suffered more often than the wealthy and cities were hit harder Cholera was a virulent epidemic in urban areas during the late 1700s and early 1800s ½ million people died of cholera in NYC in 1832 and 1/8 the population of Cairo in 1831 It is often spread through contaminated water and infects your intestines

Cholera in London, 1854 Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 3 Stage 3 is characterized by the stage of degenerative and human-created diseases It has fewer infectious disease deaths and an increase in chronic disorders that come with aging since people live longer they have different issues to deal with Cardiovascular diseases and cancer become more of an issue

Epidemiologic Transition Stage 4 Stage 4 is characterized as the stage of delayed degenerative diseases Cardiovascular disease (heart) and cancer are still the major degenerative causes of death but the life expectancy is expanded because of medical advances and better treatment

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Epidemiologic Transition Stage 5 This is a possible stage that we are moving toward- a stage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases that return after eradication or new ones that are introduced This stage could be entered with new diseases emerging, bacteria becoming more resistant to anti-biotics, etc… New strains of the flu, etc… New AIDs type diseases emergiging…

Tuberculosis Death Rates Fig. 2-24: The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious disease killers.

Avian Flu, Fig. 2-25: The first cases of avian flu in this outbreak were reported in Southeast Asia.

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005 Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

EstimateRange People living with HIV/AIDS in million million Adults living with HIV/AIDS in million million Women living with HIV/AIDS in million million Children living with HIV/AIDS in million million People newly infected with HIV in million million Children newly infected with HIV in million million AIDS deaths in million million Child AIDS deaths in million million

Global trends

Region Adults & children living with HIV/AIDS Adults & children newly infected Adult prevalence* Deaths of adults & children Sub-Saharan Africa 22.4 million1.9 million5.2%1.4 million North Africa & Middle East 310,00035,0000.2%20,000 South and South-East Asia3.8 million280,0000.3%270,000 East Asia850,00075,000<0.1%59,000 Oceania59, %2,000 Latin America2.0 million170,0000.6%77,000 Caribbean240,00020,0001.0%12,000 Eastern Europe & Central Asia 1.5 million110,0000.7%87,000 North America 1.4 million55,0000.4%25,000 Western & Central Europe 850,00030,0000.3%13,000 Global Total33.4 million2.7 million0.8%2.0 million Regional statistics for HIV & AIDS, end of