Weather Research Requirements to Improve Space Launch from Cape Canaveral AFS and NASA KSC William P. Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB Lisa L. Huddleston, NASA, Kennedy, Space Center William H. Bauman, Applied Meteorology Unit, ENSCO, Inc. Kelly B. Doser, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB Unclassified 1st Annual Space Transportation Management Conference (5-6 Nov 14)

2 45 WS Mission Research Requirements Incentives OVERVIEW

3 3 “Exploit the Weather to Assure Safe Access to Air and Space” Delta Atlas Trident Falcon 3 45 WS Mission Statement

4 45 WS Provides Weather Services to CCAFS, KSC, and PAFB 45 WS Mission Thunderstorm Capital CCAFS KSC PAFB

5 Launch Support – Weather Leading Source Scrubs/Delays 45 WS makes Go/No Go decisions on: Lightning Launch Commit Criteria Rules to avoid natural & triggered lightning ‘User’ Launch Commit Criteria Launch Pad Winds Ceiling / Visibility Advises other Go/No Go deciders Aerodynamic Loading (“Loads”) -- Upper winds Range Safety Toxics Sonic overpressure (‘Blast’) Debris 45 WS Mission

6 Pre-Launch Support -- Weather Even More Important! Rockets & payloads being readied at launch pads weeks to months before launch 5,000+ ground processing operations per year 45 WS Mission

7 Forecasts, Weather Warnings / Watches / Advisories Safety for Over 25,000 People Resource Protection for Over $20 Billion Facilities Boosters / Payloads not Included (More $Billions) 2,500+ Lightning Advisories per Year 175+ Convective Wind Warnings per Year 45 WS Mission Ten 5-6 NM Ltg Warning Circles

8 Weather Impacts: WA/WW: 40% False Alarms, 10% Fail Desired Lead-Time 35% Launches Delayed / Scrubbed due to Weather Bottom-Line: Always Room for Improvement! Huge Impact If We’re Wrong! AC-67 destroyed due to triggered lightning (1987) 45 WS Mission

9 GOAL: Improve all operations 14 Main Topics (many projects under most of these topics) 1)Nowcasting Lightning Cessation 2)Nowcasting Lightning Onset 3)Local Numerical Model for 45 WS 4)Forecasting Convective Winds 5)Dual Polarization Radar Applications 6)Tools for Daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts 7)Elevated Pont Peak Winds at Launch Pads in Winter 8)Improved Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (continued on next page) Operational Research Requirements

10 14 Main Topics (con’t.) (many projects under many of these topics) 9)Probability of Tropical Cyclone Impacts Tools 10)Improved Local Lightning Detection, Warnings, and Reporting 11)Optimized Lightning Aloft Flash Algorithm 12)Rocket Amplification of Ambient Electric Fields 13)Data Visualization 14)Statistical Process Control Applications Two high interest topics: potential to improve several topics Local modeling Dual polarization radar Operational Research Requirements

11 1)NOWCASTING LIGHTNING CESSATION 45 WS’s #1 technical challenge Lightning advisories not ended quickly enough (after the fact analysis) Safe But loses ground processing time Total lightning Lightning aloft and cloud-to-ground lightning Current Approach Statistical wait-times since last lightning and radar Field mills not useful so far; further research needed Greatest Promise: Dual-Polarization radar Some research done & in-progress, much more needed Operational Research Requirements

12 2)NOWCASTING LIGHTNING ONSET Lightning advisories are 45 WS’s most issued product Safety for 25,000+ personnel Protection of $20B+ of Facilities Again, Based on Total Lightning Tool Current Approach Radar Greatest promise Dual-Polarization radar Operational Research Requirements

13 3)LOCAL NUMERICAL MODELING Likely solution to many 45 WS needs Local model being evaluated and transitioned from AMU Study in-progress designing best model configuration and measuring its performance Find best compromise between grid spacing, forecast interval, update cycle, run-time and forecast performance of operationally phenomena Greatest Needs Temperatures for Indian and Banana Rivers Rapid updates of soil moisture in local area Runoff of WRF lightning algorithms Long-Range: develop ensemble forecast Operational Research Requirements

14 4)FORECASTING CONVECTIVE WINDS 45 WS’s #2 Operational Challenge 175+ warnings per Year  35 Kt, desired lead-time 30 Min  50 Kt, desired lead-time 60 Min Current Approach Climatology Radar Greatest Needs Which cells will produce downbursts and which will be ≥ 50kt Frequency of occurrence at any point Greatest Promises: See paper Operational Research Requirements

15 See paper for details 5)Dual polarization radar applications 6)Tools for daily 24-hour and Weekly planning forecasts 7)Elevated point peak winds at launch pads 8)Improved Lightning LCC 9)Probability of tropical cyclone impacts tools 10) Improved lightning detection, warnings, reporting 11) Optimized lightning aloft flash algorithm 12) Rocket amplification of ambient electric fields 13) Data visualization 14) Applications of statistical process control Operational Research Requirements

16 Two Special Interests Topics: 1) Dual-polarization radar, 2) Local numerical model Both have promising potential to improve several parts of 45 WS operations Dual-polarization radar Lightning cessation, lightning onset, convective winds, eventually design and evaluation of Lightning Launch Commit Criteria Local numerical model Sea-breeze front onset, time and location of first lightning, lightning warnings, winds, temperatures, precipitation, etc. Operational Research Requirements

17 Incentives Unique Dense Data, Free & Fast Routinely Available Data, Plus Many Field Experiments Well defined topics Operationally significant, meteorologically challenging, intellectually exciting, high-visibility & high-impact Many preliminary experiment designs Research liaison Operational meteorologists with decades local experience R2O meteorologists with decades of local experience Synergy with other 45 WS research Documentation on forecast techniques, training, instrumentation, and research projects Real-Time Flag Of Interesting Events

18 Extremely Dense Array Of Weather Sensors Cloud-to-ground lightning (6 sensors) Lightning aloft (9 sensors) Weather radar (2) Weather balloon (1 release facility) Weather towers (28 towers, up to 500 ft) 915 MHz boundary layer profiler (5) 50 MHz tropospheric profiler (1) Surface stations (3) Electric field mills (31) Rain gauges (33) Incentives

19 World’s Most Unique / Dense Operational Lightning Sensors Incentives LDAR CGLSS LPLWS WSR-88D NLDN WSR-74C

20 Consultation with: Operational meteorologists with decades local experience R2O meteorologists with decades local experience Including Applied Meteorology Unit NASA contractor for R2O to improve space launch (operating for 23 years) Civil servant to facilitate R2O Access to documentation on: Forecast procedures Training Instrumentation Past research Incentives

21 THE place on Earth to study Thunderstorms and associated phenomena! ‘Thunderstorm Capital’ of U.S. Unique and dense data available Operationally significant impact Incentives

22 Weather is the leading source of impacts on space launch at CCAFS/KSC: ground processing, through launch Want to improve space launch? Improve the weather support ! Operational research required 1) Lightning Cessation 8) Improved Lightning LCC 2) Lightning Onset 9) Tools for Probability of 3) Local Numerical Model for 45 WS Tropical Cyclone Impacts 4) Convective Winds 10) Improved Lightning Detection 5) Dual-Pol Radar Applications 11) Lightning Aloft Flash Algorithm 6) Tools for Daily 24-Hour and Weekly 12) Rocket Amplification of E-fields Planning Forecasts 13) Data Visualization 7) Elevated Point Peak Winds in Winter 14) Statistical Process Control Two high-return topics: dual-pol radar, local numerical model Dense And Unique Data Available Quickly & Free Expert Advisors And Research Liaison SUMMARY

23 Interested In Operational Research With 45 WS? William P. Roeder (321) , DSN 467 Weather Research Requirements to Improve Space Launch from CCAFS and KSC