Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons: Nuclear Famine Andrew S. Kanter, MD MPH FACMI Physicians for Social Responsibility US Affiliate of The International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

“With the splitting of the atom, everything changed save Man’s mode of thinking, and thus we drift toward unparalleled catastrophe.” - Albert Einstein

The Dangers of Nuclear Weapons Today Nuclear War in South Asia India and Pakistan are nuclear weapon states with a history of conflict 20 million deaths in major cities in India and Pakistan Radioactive contamination throughout the region Global climate disruption from 5 MT of smoke and soot

The Dangers of Nuclear Weapons Today Nuclear War in South Asia Nuclear explosions ignite fires that burn whole cities Soot lofted high into the atmosphere absorbs incoming sunlight Dramatic decrease in amount of light reaching the surface Large, rapid drops in surface temperature (- 1.25°C) Robock et al (2007)

Graph courtesy of Alan Robock Global climate change unprecedented in recorded human history

Chart courtesy of Alan Robock

Nuclear War: The Impact on Agriculture Sudden cooling, decreased sunlight, less rainfall shortens growing seasons; reduces crop yields Stratospheric ozone depletion damages crops sensitive to UV-B Disruption of petroleum supplies affects use of farm machinery, fertilizer and pesticide production Radioactive and toxic contamination takes farmland out of production Collapse of distribution system

Summary of Agricultural Effects Agricultural Crop Studied First 5 years Second 5 Years US Maize (Corn)(1)-20%-10% US Soybeans(1)-15%-10% China Rice(2)-20%-10% (1)Özdoğan, Mutlu, Alan Robock, and Christopher Kucharik, 2013: Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on soybean and maize production in the Midwest United States. Climatic Change, 116, , doi: /s (2)Xia, Lili, and Alan Robock, 2013: Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on rice production in mainland China. Climatic Change, 116, , doi: /s

Summary of Agricultural Effects - 2 (3) Xia, L., Robock, A., Mills, M., Stenke, A., Helfand, I., “Global famine after a regional nuclear war” submitted to Earth’s Future October Agricultural Crop Studied First 5 years Overall 10 years China Maize (Corn)(3)-20%-17% China Winter Wheat (3)-39%-31%

Increased Impact on China China originally was thought to be spared most of the famine Although rice is the number one crop, 1/3 of China’s grain consumption is wheat. 31% fall in wheat production on top of the 15% fall in rice production would mean China would exhaust its reserve in 2 years

Chronic Malnutrition Today 1,800-2,200 calories minimum daily requirement 870 million people at or below this 300 million in countries dependent on food imports

Effect on Existing Malnourished 10-25% decrease puts entire group at risk if famine persists for full decade. If market turmoil causes big spike in food prices, the decline in food consumption would be much greater. If China’s crops were effected, the entire world would be impacted.

1-2 billion dead from starvation alone?

These findings require a fundamental change in our thinking about nuclear weapons

First, we must understand that it is not only the arsenals of the US and Russia that pose a global threat. Smaller nuclear powers like India and Pakistan threaten not only each other, but all of humanity

Second, we need to look at the much larger arsenals of the other nuclear powers, and particularly the US and Russia in a totally different way.

Trident Submarine 24 missiles, 96 warheads, each of which is 20 to 30 times more powerful than the Hiroshima-sized bombs used in the South Asian scenario… 14 subs!

New START allows for 1550 weapons each…

Decrease in Surface Air Temperatures 2 years after full-scale nuclear war Surface Air Temperatures 2 years after 150 million tons of smoke enters stratosphere

Yes, there is hope.

It is possible to live safely and sustainably on this planet. We can eliminate nuclear weapons and redirect the $105 Billion spent annually

However, the critical issues of nuclear weapons, climate change, poverty, toxic degradation of the environment will not be dealt with easily All of us must play our part.

We must find a way, within our spheres of influence, to change the level of discourse. We need to reach out to all people, to change our way of thinking, and to find positive solutions.

Three Principles and Three Practices On personal level On community level On global level

Three Principles and Three Practices On personal level: RESPECT – Acceptance

Three Principles and Three Practices On personal level: RESPECT – Acceptance On a community level: INTERDEPENDENCE – Altruism/Generosity doughnut-why-world-needs-planetary-and-social-boundaries

Three Principles and Three Practices On personal level: RESPECT – Acceptance On a community level: INTERDEPENDENCE – Altruism/Generosity On a global level: UNIVERSAL RESPONSIBILITY – Restraint

What else you can do… Become informed. Get educated about not only the problems, but also the solutions. Advocate for a Ban on Nuclear Weapons eventually a Convention eliminating all WMD. Sign the abolition petition. Encourage the USA to attend the Vienna Humanitarian Impact of Nuclear Weapons Conference Advocate for reducing our carbon footprint and switch to sustainable and renewable energy sources. Live more healthily and sustainably for the benefit of the planet and future generations.

"A human being is part of the whole called by us universe, a part limited in time and space. We experience ourselves, our thoughts and feelings as something separate from the rest. A kind of optical delusion of consciousness. This delusion is a kind of a prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest to us. Our task must be to free ourselves from the prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty.” – Albert Einstein, 1954